Tour De France - Top 3 finish

[Akuryo]

I was thinking about what I thought the top 10 would be. My first draft was this:

1. Froome
2. Contador
3. Nibali
4. Valverde
5. Rodriguez
6. Van Den Broeck
7. Mollema
8. Talansky
9. Van Garderen
10. Pinot

However, there are always at least two riders who crash out, so I asked random.org to pick two numbers between 1 and 10 to determine which two riders will crash out. It came up with the numbers 2 and 9, so Contador and Van Garderen will crash out at some point. Then I remembered that there's this cobbled stage this year as well, so I decided that two riders to crash out probably isn't enough. Random.org came up with the number 8. Bye bye Talansky.

We now have this top 10:

1. Froome
2. Nibali
3. Valverde
4. Rodriguez
5. Van Den Broeck
6. Mollema
7. Pinot
8. ?
9. ?
10. ?

However, there's always at least two riders who will underperform and finish outside the top 50. I asked random.org to pick two numbers between 1 and 7: 2 and 7. Apparently Nibali and Pinot have bad form this year.

We're down to 5 riders in the top 10:

1. Froome
2. Valverde
3. Rodriguez
4. Van Den Broeck
5. Mollema

We will have to start adding some riders now. Well, we can start by adding a few super domestiques. Enter Kreuziger and Porte. Random.org chose the numbers 7 and 8 between 6 and 10:

1. Froome
2. Valverde
3. Rodriguez
4. Van Den Broeck
5. Mollema
6. Kreuziger
7. ?
8. Porte
9. ?
10. ?

Obviously there are always surprises in the top 10. I asked random.org to pick two numbers between 1 and 22 and listed the 22 participating teams alphabetically. First number was 6. That's FDJ. Procyclingstats.com currently 13 riders on FDJ's shortlist for the Tour. A number between 1 and 13, random.org? 9? Alright, that's Mourey. Next number between 1 and 22 is 15. That's Giant Shimano. They only have three riders on their shortlist. It came up 3, which is Geschke. I guess that's lucky as the other two riders were Kittel and Degenkolb.

So the preliminary top 10 is this:

1. Froome
2. Valverde
3. Rodriguez
4. Van Den Broeck
5. Mollema
6. Kreuziger
7. Mourey
8. Porte
9. Geschke
10. ?

Then of course there's always a 42-year old American who enters the top 10.

The final top 10:

1. Froome
2. Valverde
3. Rodriguez
4. Van Den Broeck
5. Mollema
6. Kreuziger
7. Mourey
8. Porte
9. Geschke
10. Horner

I have to hurry and place my bets ..... NOW

 

[PirazziAttacksVino]

Froome to go full *** with AC on his wheel in the Tourmalet/Hautacam stage and sprint for the whole 17 km of Tourmalet and the whole 13,5 km of the climb to Hautacam. Everyone else to finish outside the time limit, except for JVDB, Valverde and Rojas. Then we will have to witness the biggest fight in the history of the Universe for the podium spot, which will somehow end in a no contest and all 3 will finish on the 4th place.

 

[senatorrick]

And he'll lose 3 minutes per HC climb in the rest of the race

Yes he may but so will the rest of the field because the Dawg will be 7 minutes up the road!

 

[christopherrowe]

I was thinking about what I thought the top 10 would be.

And what fine, fine thoughts they were. Thanks for the laugh!

 

[senatorrick]

If Horner finishes in the top 10 I will go back to being a spectator and just read all your thoughts and never post again!

 

[ILovecycling]

1. Froome (unless he crashes out)
2. Contador (unless made to leave the tour)
3.Bentancur (if he's aloud to ride)
4. Kwiat ( hopefully or better)
5. Nibali (just not as strong as he seems)

Voeckler to top 10 one last show for him

oh my,you are probably the only one in this world,except his drinkin amigos, who really know in what kind of condition he is.You should probably bet at least 1000 euros on him then

 

[Contadoraus Schlecks]

Will Cancellara be pulling Andy and Frank on stage 5? I know that it's unlikely as things stand but Andy could climb with Froome and Contador no problem if back in form.

People say he's finished but he's a year younger than Froome and nearly three younger than AC

 

[Jspear]

Will Cancellara be pulling Andy and Frank on stage 5? I know that it's unlikely as things stand but Andy could climb with Froome and Contador no problem if back in form.

People say he's finished but he's a year younger than Froome and nearly three younger than AC

I'm pretty sure Frank is confirmed for the Tour. Andy is not....at least not yet.

 

[ILovecycling]

Will Cancellara be pulling Andy and Frank on stage 5? I know that it's unlikely as things stand but Andy could climb with Froome and Contador no problem if back in form.

People say he's finished but he's a year younger than Froome and nearly three younger than AC

This.

10chars

 

[ferryman]

Will Cancellara be pulling Andy and Frank on stage 5? I know that it's unlikely as things stand but Andy could climb with Froome and Contador no problem if back in form.

People say he's finished but he's a year younger than Froome and nearly three younger than AC

Last I read Cancellara wasn't riding. Confirm anyone?

 

[Afrank]

Fabian Cancellara (Trek Factory Racing) finalised the date and venue for his hour record attempt. According to La Gazzetta dello Sport newspaper, he will try on the Sunday after the Tour de France, August 3, in Aguascalientes, Mexico.

http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news...ra-attempt-hour-record-mexico-august-3-115273

edit: Will Cance attempt the hour record has always been a bit iffy. so another source-

Going into 2014, Cancellara will aim to do it all again, with a season targeting the northern classics, the Tour de France, and the world championships.

http://velonews.competitor.com/2013...assics-hour-record_309493#ErRtLpX7KKRzdG28.99

 

[karlboss]

Will Cancellara be pulling Andy and Frank on stage 5? I know that it's unlikely as things stand but Andy could climb with Froome and Contador no problem if back in form.

People say he's finished but he's a year younger than Froome and nearly three younger than AC

I really doubt it, I think Cancellara if he rides it will be all out for the stage win. If he isn't given this stage why would you even bother taking him to the Tour?

 

[orangerider]

I thought Fabian swore off the Tour after realizing it was causing him to lose form for the classics and worlds. I seriously doubt he would ever want to go back to the Tour unless given free reign on all stages, and rightly so.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I really doubt it, I think Cancellara if he rides it will be all out for the stage win. If he isn't given this stage why would you even bother taking him to the Tour?

I think he will ride the Tour.
And I agree he should have a serious go on the cobbles.

 

[Akuryo]

I thought Fabian swore off the Tour after realizing it was causing him to lose form for the classics and worlds. I seriously doubt he would ever want to go back to the Tour unless given free reign on all stages, and rightly so.

Just like Boonen who only will come back for this one stage. He can be glad that Kwiatkowski is a decent cobbles-rider so he doesn't have to slow down too much!

But Cancellara whould have to get off his bike to pull the Schlecks.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Just like Boonen who only will come back for this one stage. He can be glad that Kwiatkowski is a decent cobbles-rider so he doesn't have to slow down too much!

But Cancellara whould have to get off his bike to pull the Schlecks.

If Trek brings Devo, he can babysit the Schlecks while Cancellara battles it out with the other hard men.

 

[el_angliru]

But Cancellara whould have to get off his bike to pull the Schlecks.

To be fair, Andy was excellent on the cobbles in 2010. He was 5th on the stage, more than 1 minute ahead of Contador, and more than 2 minutes ahead of Lance. Of course he couldn't have done it without Fabian, but still...

But I'm aware it's a completely different affair with Andy's current form. For sure.

 

[Der Effe]

Just like Boonen who only will come back for this one stage. He can be glad that Kwiatkowski is a decent cobbles-rider so he doesn't have to slow down too much!

But Cancellara whould have to get off his bike to pull the Schlecks.

I really wonder what happens when Boonen or Cancellara set pace on the cobbles and - let's take Belkin as an example here - Vanmarcke and Boom can follow, but Mollema can't. Will they pull these riders back? Will they let them go for the win? I guess it all depends if they're any other riders assisting the GC man at that moment, but it's gonna be a hell of a stage for sure.

 

[SlimChance]

The betting market suggests the following implied chances of making the podium:

Froome 74%
Contador 72%
Niballi 41.66%
Valverde 26.66%
Talansky 16.66%
VDV 13.3%
Costa 11.11%
TVG 8.33%
Roman Kreuziger 6.66%
Mollena 4.76%


Anyone else not named is 5% or less

 

[Fzotrlool]

1-2. Contador vs. Froome
3. Bardet
4. Valverde
5. Talansky
6. Nibali
7. JVDB
8. Costa
9. Navarro
10. Horner

 

[HappyLoser]

Easy one:

1.Contador
2.Van Den Broeck +2:30
3.Talansky !!! + 3:10
4.Valverde +3:40
5.Froome +4:30
6.Nibali +6:40
7.Mollema +8:00
8.Kwiatkowski +9:30
9.Pinot +10:00
10.Costa + 11:00

 

[murali]

Easy one:

1.Contador
2.Van Den Broeck +2:30
3.Talansky !!! + 3:10
4.Valverde +3:40
5.Froome +4:30
6.Nibali +6:40
7.Mollema +8:00
8.Kwiatkowski +9:30
9.Pinot +10:00
10.Costa + 11:00

nice klisting.
bu i dont remember many TdF's where the top-9 is within 10 min. it has usually been 15 min for top-7 on an average.

Also, this TdF is more hilly and less TT specific. The time differences will be a bit more accentuated. Anyone outside top-10 GC can still do a big attack in Tourmalet or any other big climb, descent well, and catapult themselves to top-10.

 

[cineteq]

1. Contador
2. Nibali
3. Talansky

Froome (DNF)

 

[ILovecycling]

1. Contador
2. Nibali
3. Talansky

Froome (DNF)

reason?

 

[auscyclefan94]

1. Contador
2. Froome
3. Mollema