Tour de Pologne 2025, August 4-10

I don't often open race threads (maybe for fear of getting burnt, maybe out of laziness, nobody will know) but with no fewer than four stage races coming up next week (good luck Axelgaard), I thought it would be prudent to have a separate thread for Tour de Pologne which can actually be watched on HBO Max this year.

The route is probably the best ever - the only annoying thing is that the TT is on the final day - and there is only really one option for the sprinters (stage 1). I haven't analysed it in detail so the following is based only on La Flamme Rouge's profiles:

Stage 1 - flat

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Stage 2 - upill finish in Karpacz - a finish that was used no less than two times in last year's race with Nys winning stage 1 and Wellens somewhat surprisingly winning the uphill TT on stage 2 ahead of Vingegaard who would go on to win the GC, however.


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Stage 3 - mega-hard murito type stage. Good to see other races picking up the mantle now that Tirreno-Adriatico apparently have decided not to use this kind of stage anymore.

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Stage 4 - maybe a small chance for sprinters, but it's an uphill drag to the line and there are some lumps in the middle of the stage that could be too hard.

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Stage 5 - an undulating stage to Zakopane which might look harder on the profile than it is if you look at the percentages of the climbs which seem a bit shallow. Still not your typical sprint day, though, far from it.

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Stage 6 - the Bukowina Tatrzanska stage finally makes its comeback for the first time since Remco absolutely destroyed the field in 2020 (it was used as a MTT in 2022 but that doesn't really count) after having featured every single year between 2010 and 2020.

Edit: The above is not correct. The finale was also used last year but apparently called Bukovina Resort, which was why it didn't pop up when I searched for it on CQRanking.

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Stage 7 - an ITT to settle the matter. If this had been on stage 4 instead, I don't think there could be much criticism levelled at this route (based on the profiles, I don't know if there are some controversial shenanigans going on in the final kilometres of some of the stages).

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The field, however, is not too mouth-watering.

The Polish duo of Majka and Kwiatkowski will be there with the former having just announced that this will be his last season and the latter finally ready to race after five months on the sideline.

They will probably not be primed for the win, however, and to me it looks like it will be between Antonio Tiberi, Magnus Sheffield, Mathias Vacek, Maxim Van Gils and the UAE duo of Brandon McNulty (whom I don't have much faith in) and Jan Christen.

Matthew Brennan will also be here, and it will be interesting to see how much of this terrain he can handle. He should win a couple of stages but the GC seems unlikely.

 
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Kooij is also here, so not sure if Brennan will have much in the way of opportunities.
Stage 5 and maybe 4 should be too hard/ uphill sprinty for Kooij. Stage 1 might be his only opportunity if they go for Brennan on 4. Visma are also lining up a rapid sprint train with Behrens earlier on (wearing No.1 as the logical successor to Vingegaard) and McLay. Anyway, Gaviria to outplay them all from 500 meters out.
 
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Stage 5 and maybe 4 should be too hard/ uphill sprinty for Kooij. Stage 1 might be his only opportunity if they go for Brennan on 4. Visma are also lining up a rapid sprint train with Behrens earlier on (wearing No.1 as the logical successor to Vingegaard) and McLay. Anyway, Gaviria to outplay them all from 500 meters out.

Hehe, I also thought about including the following phrase: "Logically, Niklas Behrens will wear number 1 in this race" but forgot about it :tearsofjoy:
 
Ethan Hayter being in a race always enhances the viewing experience because you can wonder whether he‘ll try to go for a result or whether he‘ll stay last in the bunch and get dropped eventually because he doesn‘t feel like it. It‘s the opposite of Froome taking the races very seriously while being at a non-serious level.
 
Stage 3 looks brilliant. Stage design overall looks really good actually.

Bit weird but I just never really warm up to this race. In theory great crowds, quite cycling enthusiastic country, often decent stages but something (maybe mainly the subpar field) is always missing for me.
For me, the TV broadcast is what was missing but that seems to have changed now. Hopefully I can actually care about this race this time around.
 
Stage 5 and maybe 4 should be too hard/ uphill sprinty for Kooij. Stage 1 might be his only opportunity if they go for Brennan on 4. Visma are also lining up a rapid sprint train with Behrens earlier on (wearing No.1 as the logical successor to Vingegaard) and McLay. Anyway, Gaviria to outplay them all from 500 meters out.
Kooij climbs fairly well when the form is there (which is an open question given that he's coming back from a long break), stage 4 is easily within his limits and stage 5 might be depending how it's raced and what kind of legs he has.
 
Petulant Whiners United approves of this route.

The one thing I'm missing from Pologne, and have for a few years, is the extremely pointless 230km sprinter stages they would still do 15 years after all the other races stopped having them.

It was even worse than this. In 2007, they had a 242 km long stage 4 won in a sprint by Danilo Napolitano followed by a 256 km long stage 5 won in a sprint by Murilo Fischer!
 
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