Tour Prep: Whose Form Would You Rather Have Today?

[Je ne sais quoi]

With the goal of no less than winning the Tour, whose form would you rather have today, with one month to go - Andy Schleck's, rested and working towards a peak, but still without the certain knowledge of how you stack up this season; or Alberto Contador's, tired but happy with the knowledge that you've already proven exceptional form?

Secondary questions: How much do we really know about peaking twice in a short period? Why couldn't Contador rest now and ride himself back to top form in the second or third week of the Tour?

My working hypothesis is that most of what we think we know about this subject is heavily influenced by Armstrong's one-peak approach (which Schleck appears to be emulating). It was very successful for him, but that's because he didn't want to target anything other than the Tour - it would have been detrimental to his carefully crafted image to be defeated in a "lesser" race.
What happens when you have someone that wants to try to win the second race and is willing to dig deep and not allow the Giro to be an excuse to lose - maybe someone like a Contador or a Gadret type?

A lot of the new stuff we learn comes from someone showing that it's possible. I'm hopeful that this year we'll learn some new things that will empower riders to attempt more major stage races in a season, as in days of old.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Andy schleck without a doubt.

 

[brianf7]

When we had the Festina affair UCI and others made a statement the season was to hard races were too hard and too long so what did they do. added an extra rest day to 3 week tours just to show they are politicaly doing something.


Many riders have done all 3 major tours in the old days of drugs but now it cant be done so have they cleaned it up or at least made it harder.

And what do we do this year Make the Giro harder than ever.

so whos form would I like now. too soon to say we often pick the favorit in the next 2 weeks we will know who is starting out good but I prefer to wait untill mid way through before i bet any money.

 

[saganftw]

schlecks form,he is well rested and still can make adjustments to his form,conti has to rest now and hope he wont loose it all so its more alchemy

i dont know if contador has ever participated in 2 GTs,last succesfull in doin so was sastre,maybe evans...and pantani in 98 but thats a different story

and schleck has two peaks in a season,classics and TdF

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Andy, definitely. He's on familiar ground, preparing in the same way that has worked well for the past 2 years.

Bertie's in unknown territory. He's got no idea how his body is going to react to a brutal Giro in a few weeks time because he's never done the Tour / Giro double before.

 

[TERMINATOR]

When we had the Festina affair UCI and others made a statement the season was to hard races were too hard and too long so what did they do. added an extra rest day to 3 week tours just to show they are politicaly doing something.


Many riders have done all 3 major tours in the old days of drugs but now it cant be done so have they cleaned it up or at least made it harder.

And what do we do this year Make the Giro harder than ever.

so whos form would I like now. too soon to say we often pick the favorit in the next 2 weeks we will know who is starting out good but I prefer to wait untill mid way through before i bet any money.

Doping has nothing to do with the length or difficulty of a race or season.

Doping has to do with MONEY. Please get with the program.

 

[Bavarianrider]

The peaking thing in cycling is actually something i will neve really understand. There's really no other endurance sport where peaking is so crucial. I mean in cycling some guys are top at a certain race, 3 weeks later theý are nowhere anymore. Other guys jump from nowhere to winning the Tour de France shape within a few weeks. Those huge differences in form over a short period of time are really astonishing. You don't see this as nearly as extreme in track and field swimming or cross country skiing.

 

[analo69]

I think it has a lot to do with the psychology of the riders. Are they motivated and concentrated enough? It takes a lot of energy to be concentrating on doing well every day, 3 weeks in a row. I think that mental fatigue is just as or perhaps more important than real fatigue. There are no other sports with 100+ days of racing each year and it is very difficult to be contesting the win in 60 of those days, both because of psyche and reak "form".

 

[ergmonkey]

Is this a Contador vs. Schleck only thread?

Otherwise, I like where Evans stands. He has shown great form and an ability to hit his targets this year, but he hasn't raced himself into the ground with hard Ardennes and Giro campaigns back-to-back. Nor has he hurt himself or been very ill.

Regarding Contador, does anybody know what his weight was like during the Giro? If he was right on the edge of being as lean as possible for all three weeks, then I think recovering for the Tour will be tough. If he had even a tiny cushion for the first ten days, though, (1-1.5 kilos) then I think he can recover and ride a good Tour.

 

[jens_attacks]

gilbert's,horner's,vino's or andy's.
hard to pick just one.

 

[El Pistolero]

Gilbert seems to be on some super form. Hasn't lost a single race he entered since 9 April.

And GC wise, Andy probably.

 

[kjetilraknerud]

Regarding this topic; If I had something even close to the form of the worst rider in the pro peloton, I would be very, very happy

 

[mr. tibbs]

Regarding this topic; If I had something even close to the form of the worst rider in the pro peloton, I would be very, very happy

Oh, yeah, this! That's why I watch cycling. These guys are beasts.

But I would rather have Contador's form. Schleck already knows who the stronger rider is, and that's going to weigh on him in July--even if he is a touch stronger in the mountains. (This may very well be wishful thinking )

I like the questions raised by OP, and I applaude Contador's willingness to kill it all year instead of soft-pedaling around for 11 months between Tours. Hopefully Contador will do the double, and the three week season will move that much closer to becoming a thing of the past.

Fingers crossed.

 

[Publicus]

We should know with certainty in a couple of weeks after AC conducts his tests. If his form has suffered, he won't ride. But if I had to venture a guess, I think AC starts at a disadvantage to everyone who didnt ride the Giro.

 

[rzombie1988]

Is this a Contador vs. Schleck only thread?

Otherwise, I like where Evans stands. He has shown great form and an ability to hit his targets this year, but he hasn't raced himself into the ground with hard Ardennes and Giro campaigns back-to-back. Nor has he hurt himself or been very ill.

Regarding Contador, does anybody know what his weight was like during the Giro? If he was right on the edge of being as lean as possible for all three weeks, then I think recovering for the Tour will be tough. If he had even a tiny cushion for the first ten days, though, (1-1.5 kilos) then I think he can recover and ride a good Tour.

To me, Cadel's form doesn't matter. He can't match Contador's accelerations, but Andy can. At best Cadel's going to get 3rd. He's never shown me anything that says he can beat Contador. He also consistently gets dropped on the big climbs, so unless he can have the best TT either, he won't beat Andy.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Nobody can match the superlative form of the one and only Matthew Busche.

 

[Je ne sais quoi]

I think it has a lot to do with the psychology of the riders. Are they motivated and concentrated enough? It takes a lot of energy to be concentrating on doing well every day, 3 weeks in a row. I think that mental fatigue is just as or perhaps more important than real fatigue. There are no other sports with 100+ days of racing each year and it is very difficult to be contesting the win in 60 of those days, both because of psyche and reak "form".

Yes, it seems there are three prongs to this subject: physiological, psychological or mental toughness, and tactical. All three are interesting.

 

[VeloCity]

http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/8627/Contador-says-hes-very-fatigued-after-Giro-dItalia.aspx

Might just be mind games, but still: "“If I go to the Tour, it will be to fight for victory. If I see that I am not in good condition, I will not go”

Think Andy (and Cadel) have the edge at the moment.

 

[Je ne sais quoi]

We should know with certainty in a couple of weeks after AC conducts his tests. If his form has suffered, he won't ride. But if I had to venture a guess, I think AC starts at a disadvantage to everyone who didnt ride the Giro.

Yes, this is probably what got me wondering, when Swordsman mentioned them in the other thread. Do we know what tests Contador will undergo to help determine if he is fit again, and how definitive are those tests?
What are the physiological limits that are being exhausted. Are there other sports that would serve as a reference, or are long stage races unique?

 

[Je ne sais quoi]

Is this a Contador vs. Schleck only thread?

Otherwise, I like where Evans stands. He has shown great form and an ability to hit his targets this year, but he hasn't raced himself into the ground with hard Ardennes and Giro campaigns back-to-back. Nor has he hurt himself or been very ill.
....

Anybody really. I just chose those two because they were the most stark examples.

Evans this year could be very informative on this subject. But mostly from the perspective of proving the negative, so to speak, if he excels this year. Isn't this the first time he's tried the one-peak approach?

 

[lancaster]

Regarding this topic; If I had something even close to the form of the worst rider in the pro peloton, I would be very, very happy

+1
i can barely comprehend the form that would enable you to finish 15 mins down on the group

 

[Je ne sais quoi]

Nobody can match the superlative form of the one and only Matthew Busche.

You are evil. You mean, forget about peaking once a season, why tire yourself out riding a bike for 25 years when you can stay fresh and peak later?
And so the legend of McCarnuckles Training Systems was born.

But the idea of extended rest makes one wonder how much of returning to form after a suspension is a matter of public relations.

 

[jmspinto]

Contador

First of all, Contador is undoubtly a better rider than Schleck. Second, I always hated those one tour riders (like Armstrong). Third, you can´t forget that Contador is now ridding with the most powerfull "doping" of all: rage!! And you know what one can do when you have a furious attitude. The way I saw him ride the Giro was the most impressive thing I saw for a long years, and I think he will be able to recover well to the Tour as I think I was able to rest a little bit on the last week of the Giro.

Anyway, don´t forget Cadel Evans!! A very impressive and powerfull rider. I think he made a better preparation for the Tour this year, and I think he also is better than Andy.

 

[bicing]

To me, Cadel's form doesn't matter. He can't match Contador's accelerations, but Andy can. At best Cadel's going to get 3rd. He's never shown me anything that says he can beat Contador. He also consistently gets dropped on the big climbs, so unless he can have the best TT either, he won't beat Andy.

Yeah but Andy gets dropped when he changes gears, so Cadel could finish 2nd.

 

[Matty_Tucks]

With the goal of no less than winning the Tour, whose form would you rather have today, with one month to go - Andy Schleck's, rested and working towards a peak, but still without the certain knowledge of how you stack up this season; or Alberto Contador's, tired but happy with the knowledge that you've already proven exceptional form?

Secondary questions: How much do we really know about peaking twice in a short period? Why couldn't Contador rest now and ride himself back to top form in the second or third week of the Tour?

My working hypothesis is that most of what we think we know about this subject is heavily influenced by Armstrong's one-peak approach (which Schleck appears to be emulating). It was very successful for him, but that's because he didn't want to target anything other than the Tour - it would have been detrimental to his carefully crafted image to be defeated in a "lesser" race.
What happens when you have someone that wants to try to win the second race and is willing to dig deep and not allow the Giro to be an excuse to lose - maybe someone like a Contador or a Gadret type?

A lot of the new stuff we learn comes from someone showing that it's possible. I'm hopeful that this year we'll learn some new things that will empower riders to attempt more major stage races in a season, as in days of old.

Not convinced with the validity of this quesiton really. I don't know how easy it is to judge. We don't exactly have the numbers in front of us that they're doing - and do we really know if they're going full gas or not in a particular race? Not really no, especially if they're building for the Tour. Its not much use listening to what they say in the media either really - its well known the riders just do a lot of sabre-rattling in it, and thats the point anyway, they don't want to let on too much.