In Tokyo, he crashed riding a drop that he didn't believe was a drop. In Scotland he washed out on a loose corner in a flat turn on the start loop. I don't recall the nature of his first crash in the race this year, but I believe it involved a collision with another rider?MvdP's problem is over confidence in his limited XC skills. He had built up some skills once but the bikes have changed a lot since he stopped riding the MTB for a long time to concentrate on road. He needs saddle time on the MTB to regain those skills. Has he done the needed training on the MTB since dropping out of the TdF? I don't think he should go for the win and instead he should just concentrate on not crashing out on the first lap and try to actually finish an XCO race.
I don't doubt that there is an element of overconfidence and lack of familiarity with his bike, but there is also more than a little bit of bad luck and silly lack of focus in there as well. If he gets through the first few laps unscathed I think he can meet the demands of the course.
So t the very least I'd like to see him stay upright for the first few laps tomorrow. I think a top 10-12 finish would be respectable given his start position.