UCI World Championships 2010, Geelong: Early Thread

[taiwan]

A thread (which will hopefully be stickied) to accomodate some of the discussion about the Worlds. I'm getting sort of excited about it myself already, and it's the next big season goal for many riders.

The Courses:

Interactive maps/profiles (Flash)

pdf format maps/profiles (3.9MB)

The RR Course:

The RR circuit (x11):

Some responses to the RR parcours:

Evans: "I'm expecting a group of fifty to contest the finish."

Bettini: "It could end up in a sprint of up to sixty riders, but the winner will be a fast rider who can handle mixed course."

Ballerini: "It will be a Worlds for the sprinters, but the consistent climbing, even if they are small climbs, will see only those riders in the best of form reach the finish line,"

Haussler: "I know if I do get into form then there's not many people that can beat me on that course. There's maybe only Gilbert"
McEwen: "You can compare what the trail with a piece of Tour of Flanders, but without the cobblestones." "the course plays into the hands of riders like Valverde and Gilbert." (Google translated)

Leukemans: "the course promises to be selective. I think of it as a new version of the Brabantse Pijl."

 

[Jamsque]

Flanders would seem to be an accurate comparison, the climbs on the finishing circuit are not that long or tall but brutally steep. If the pace is kept high over several circuits then they ought to be enough to shed the pure sprinters from the group, but if attacks are left too late there are 10 or so flat kilometres at the end to pull things back together.

On balance I think it's more likely to be a course for a classics specialist than a pure sprinter.

 

[Ryaguas]

Great...! Plz Stick this post! cuz WC are coming and we are going to discuss a lot! expecting some fights too

 

[skidmark]

Seems intriguing, in the sense that there should be a lot of countries in with a shout. If the race goes a certain way and is not too gruelling, then the UK (Cav), Germany (Griepel), US (Farrar) will have a good shot, but if it's a bit harder and it's a selective group sprint, there'll be good contention from Belgium (Gilbert), Australia (Haussler, Gerrans), Spain (Friere, Sanchez if he races), Switzerland (Cancellara), Denmark (Breschel), Norway (Hushovd, EBH) or if there can be a small escape, someone like Luxembourg (either Schleck), Canada (Hesjedal), Russia (Kolobnev, Ivanov), Czech (Kreuziger)... might put Italy (Cunego) in the 'needs to escape' group, although Pozzato on form could win a sprint. Wouldn't count out someone like Fedrigo (France) on winning a small group sprint either, if he's on the form of his life. If it was a 200km course, I'd think it perfectly suited to Sagan (Slovak), but he's too young and unproven at the gruelling 260k distance. Either way, pretty wide open and that's exciting.

 

[this_is_edie]

Good work Taiwan. Yep, this should definitely be a sticky.

Do we have the quota per country yet?

 

[taiwan]

Do we have the quota per country yet?

I think the 15th August (day of Vattenfalls Cyclassics) is the last opportunity to score points, so we don't have that quite yet.

 

[tgsgirl]

Good work Taiwan. Yep, this should definitely be a sticky.

Do we have the quota per country yet?

Next monday, when the UCI ranking comes out, or next Sunday assuming someone (anyone) can count faster than the UCI.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Course reminds me a bit of Salzburg '06 (where Bettini won). I see a similar sized (largish) group making it to the finish with some sprinters there but maybe with not much left in the tank and I think some "strong but not fast" riders could be competitive in the sprint especially as it ramps up a bit

 

[taiwan]

Course reminds me a bit of Salzburg '06 (where Bettini won). I see a similar sized (largish) group making it to the finish with some sprinters there but maybe with not much left in the tank and I think some "strong but not fast" riders could be competitive in the sprint especially as it ramps up a bit

Ultimi km.

 

[il_fiammingo]

A thread (which will hopefully be stickied) to accomodate some of the discussion about the Worlds. I'm getting sort of excited about it myself already, and it's the next big season goal for many riders.

The Courses:

Interactive maps/profiles (Flash)

pdf format maps/profiles (3.9MB)

[edit] If anyone has an address for a jpeg of the parcours, I'd like to copy it in here.

http://www.bikely.com/maps/bike-path/WC-Geelong-2010

11 laps containing +-245 vertical meters totals 2700m.

to compare: the tour of flanders has 1400 vertical meters; Liege Bastogne Liege has 3100m; Amstel has 2200m

 

[jaylew]

Looking forward to it as well, but it's a bit early for a sticky. Let's wait 'til after the Vuelta. Too many stickies around here as it is. We don't need them for topics that fuel themselves.

 

[rghysens]

http://www.bikely.com/maps/bike-path/WC-Geelong-2010

11 laps containing +-245 vertical meters totals 2700m.

to compare: the tour of flanders has 1400 vertical meters; Liege Bastogne Liege has 3100m; Amstel has 2200m

245 vertical meters per lap? Maybe if you count each bump in the road surface.
Anyway, the total ascent for the world championships doesn't mean that much. I think Madrid 2005 also had about 3000m vertical ascension, and the winner of that edition isn't exactly a contender for LBL. Mendrisio last year had almost as much (or maybe even more, I don't remember it well) vertical ascension as a stage in the high mountains in the tour or giro, and I can't see Gilbert finishing 6th in that kind of race (unless he can take advantage of an early breakaway).
What's more important to split the field (in my opinion) is the difficulty of the climbs as such.

 

[used to row]

I can't remember the source but I think it was Bettini who said the course was like The AmstelGoldrace without the ascent of the cauberg at the end. Looks like a course for Freire or as an outsider Visconti

 

[taiwan]

I can't remember the source but I think it was Bettini who said the course was like The AmstelGoldrace without the ascent of the cauberg at the end. Looks like a course for Freire or as an outsider Visconti

Visconti: The good thing for Italy is that riders that can climb and sprint are their stock in trade: there are a few. Visconti's possibly the best candidate at the moment, but Ginanni, Gasparotto, Paolini, Gavazzi, Finetto, Lorenzetto, Belletti... Not that all these guys can win the Worlds.

 

[Aguirre]

suits perfect for LL Sanchez, Gilbert, Nibali, Pozzato, Freire, Hushov, Cancellara, Haussler, Breschel, EBH, Ballan, Visconti, Sagan, Fedrigo

doesnt suit as better for Cav, Greipel, McEwen, Pettachi, Farrar

I dont see pure sprinters win, but rather fast/solid/consistent riders,

 

[il_fiammingo]

245 vertical meters per lap? Maybe if you count each bump in the road surface.
Anyway, the total ascent for the world championships doesn't mean that much. I think Madrid 2005 also had about 3000m vertical ascension, and the winner of that edition isn't exactly a contender for LBL. Mendrisio last year had almost as much (or maybe even more, I don't remember it well) vertical ascension as a stage in the high mountains in the tour or giro, and I can't see Gilbert finishing 6th in that kind of race (unless he can take advantage of an early breakaway).
What's more important to split the field (in my opinion) is the difficulty of the climbs as such.

indeed, i just mentioned what bikely.com calculated.

 

[boardhanger]

Every year without fail ther's a crash in the feed zone during the worlds which heats up the race. Every year !!

 

[auscyclefan94]

suits perfect for LL Sanchez, Gilbert, Nibali, Pozzato, Freire, Hushov, Cancellara, Haussler, Breschel, EBH, Ballan, Visconti, Sagan, Fedrigo
doesnt suit as better for Cav, Greipel, McEwen, Pettachi, Farrar

I dont see pure sprinters win, but rather fast/solid/consistent riders,

If Nibali is going to be there then why isn't evans? I think near the top of the first climb it is at 17%. That will knock some guys backwards.

I hav refined your favourites list.

 

[tgsgirl]

That's the internet for you. Within a week, the Geelong course goes from "pancake flat, made for Cav" over "oh my, it has a little hill" and "uh, they ride that little hill multiple times" to "it's so mountainous the GT men are the real favourites".

 

[Connor Pass]

McEwen: ... (Google translated)

Did they have to translate what he said from Oz into English?!

Agree with most of the sentiments here - following on from Ireland's first Pro Tour win in many years perhaps Nicolas Roche can follow in his father's footsteps and win the Worlds. Roche, Martin and Deignan isn't a bad team for Ireland.

 

[maltiv]

That's the internet for you. Within a week, the Geelong course goes from "pancake flat, made for Cav" over "oh my, it has a little hill" and "uh, they ride that little hill multiple times" to "it's so mountainous the GT men are the real favourites".

Yea, hopefully the riders will catch up as well! I remember last year Hushovd was talking about having a chance to win the worlds. The look on his face after testing the course was priceless. He looked totally shocked, saying "uhm, I knew the course was a bit hard, but I had no idea it was this tough..." When asked if he still thought he had any chance, he replied that he was way too fat for this

 

[tgsgirl]

Did they have to translate what he said from Oz into English?!

His Dutch is perfect.

 

[roundabout]

That's the internet for you. Within a week, the Geelong course goes from "pancake flat, made for Cav" over "oh my, it has a little hill" and "uh, they ride that little hill multiple times" to "it's so mountainous the GT men are the real favourites".

The more people who think they have a chance the better. Given all the initial talk how it was going to be a course for the sprinters i'm happy with steepness of the climbs.

 

[ericthesportsman6]

Seems intriguing, in the sense that there should be a lot of countries in with a shout. If the race goes a certain way and is not too gruelling, then the UK (Cav), Germany (Griepel), US (Farrar) will have a good shot, but if it's a bit harder and it's a selective group sprint, there'll be good contention from Belgium (Gilbert), Australia (Haussler, Gerrans), Spain (Friere, Sanchez if he races), Switzerland (Cancellara), Denmark (Breschel), Norway (Hushovd, EBH) or if there can be a small escape, someone like Luxembourg (either Schleck), Canada (Hesjedal), Russia (Kolobnev, Ivanov), Czech (Kreuziger)... might put Italy (Cunego) in the 'needs to escape' group, although Pozzato on form could win a sprint. Wouldn't count out someone like Fedrigo (France) on winning a small group sprint either, if he's on the form of his life. If it was a 200km course, I'd think it perfectly suited to Sagan (Slovak), but he's too young and unproven at the gruelling 260k distance. Either way, pretty wide open and that's exciting.

Great post, pretty much sums up the potential contenders. For me, Haussler and Gilbert are the biggest favorites, while an on form EBH/Ballan/Pozzato could challenge. It will be someone who can survive the steep but short hills and packs a powerful finishing kick.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

But it does omit one of the top names for a course like this - Giovanni Visconti.