UCI World Championships 2010, Geelong: Early Thread

[roundabout]

Second, if we look back over the last several years, very few riders have actually successfully trained at the Vuelta and gone on to win the Worlds. As I glance at the last decade, the only name that stands out is Óscar Freire. Far, far more riders head to the Vuelta hoping for results at the Worlds, but walk away empty handed at both, tossing away any chance of glory at the Vuelta.

I remember reading somewhere (an article about Hushovd going to Vuelta this year perhaps) that the last World Champion who didn't ride the Vuelta before was Vainšteins in 2000.

 

[hrotha]

Riders who rode the Tour tend to be the strongest in August, and the same goes for the Vuelta and the Worlds.

By the way, even if you think the chances of a bunch sprint are small, not having any pure sprinter would be silly. No one really knows what the course is like until they see how the women and u23 races unfold.

 

[The Hitch]

"Porte is still young, plenty of time for him. Has he done many long events in 260Km range"

Huh

fixed it for you.

 

[taiwan]

I think I'm settling upon the view that it's similar to the Tour of Flanders. In any case Gilbert comes out as the big favourite. Cancellara has to be one of the first to be considered, with his performances at the last Worlds and in the Spring. Omitting one potentially record breaking former champion who I don't want to jinx, I'll add Haussler who despite missing so much of the season, promised much early on, and seems to like the course a lot.

 

[Cerberus]

I think I'm settling upon the view that it's similar to the Tour of Flanders. In any case Gilbert comes out as the big favourite. Cancellara has to be one of the first to be considered, with his performances at the last Worlds and in the Spring. Omitting one potentially record breaking former champion who I don't want to jinx, I'll add Haussler who despite missing so much of the season, promised much early on, and seems to like the course a lot.

It might be like Flanders without the cobbles, but is Flanders without cobbles really that similar to Flanders? That's not a rhetorical question BTW. If Flanders is comparable I'd have to ranks Breschel as a top favourite to, which I certainly wouldn't mind.

 

[taiwan]

It might be like Flanders without the cobbles, but is Flanders without cobbles really that similar to Flanders? That's not a rhetorical question BTW. If Flanders is comparable I'd have to ranks Breschel as a top favourite to, which I certainly wouldn't mind.

Fair point, a race with the profile of the RVV, but without cobbles could be easier. Whether that would help out sprinters much I doubt, because the climbs almost hit 19% max. and there are a few of them.

[edit] I thought the Amstel Gold might be a useful comparison too, but there are more climbs. It does have the uphill finish, but again harder. So...

 

[Spare Tyre]

Here is a helmet-cam ride through the circuit:

http://www.cyclingtipsblog.com/2010/01/2010-world-championship-course-geelong-australia/

 

[PCutter]

Here is a helmet-cam ride through the circuit:

http://www.cyclingtipsblog.com/2010/01/2010-world-championship-course-geelong-australia/

Great link. That should end the talk of Cav for WC which has been present on these forums of late. Suits a punchy climber like Gilbert, but the run to the line is long enough that there will probably be a bunch of punchy climbers with the one with the best sprint left in the tank to take the win. Gilbert/Hausler (if fit)/LL Sanchez

 

[skidmark]

Alpe: agreed that 'training' in the Vuelta (ie. riding a bit and pulling out) is a weird idea. But riding it seems to be a really good way to get yourself into form for the Worlds. I think that's what you're saying, right? Seems to me that Cancellara did fine 'training' and dropping out for the TT, but a) that's the time trial so training would probably be a bit different, and b) it's Cancellara so he could probably win even if he was drunk at a disco until 3am the night before.

On another note, aside from naming the favourites, who are people hoping will win? I think Oscar would definitely be at the top of my list, he's such a class rider and I'd love to see him get a 4th in the twilight of his career. Hushovd would be cool too, that guy's had a stellar career and alot of 'almosts' in big races. Cunego, too, after a quiet year. And, being Canadian, of course it's a dream even having someone to talk about as a possible top 10, so seeing Hesjedal break away on a good day would be alright for me, to say the least.

Don't want to see win: Cav, Pozzato.

 

[abbaskip]

Looking at the reduced Australian squad, I'd be quite annoyed if I was Lancaster, and Sutton was still in, but I wasn't?

I think the guys that are sure to go (in no particular order) are:
Rogers, Haussler, Evans, Gerrans, O'Grady, Hansen (not many other true domestiques) and Hayman (see Hansen)

Then there will probably be two of Goss, Davis, Cooke, Renshaw, McEwen or Sutton.

I think Porte and Sulzberger are outsiders, simply because of their age and experience (and the fact that so many of the older guys want to race).

I'd like to see Porte or Sulzberger go instead of Hayman (remember, that list was my guess of what WILL happen, not what I think SHOULD happen).

McEwen will probably be chosen, simply because he is one of the bigger names, and as it is an Australian Worlds, some of the long time servants to Australian Cycling will probably be given a run regardless of quality or form (I think as a pure Sprinter Renshaw is the pick of them, and Davis and Goss are the best of the stronger/harder race sprinters)

So my guess is:
Rogers, Haussler, Evans, Gerrans, O'Grady, Hansen, Hayman, McEwen, Goss.

Though one sprinter may be dropped from that selection for Porte or Sulzberger, especially as Haussler can sprint.

My choice would be:
Rogers, Haussler, Evans, Gerrans, O'Grady, Hansen, Porte, Renshaw, Davis.

I think Sutton and Cooke aren't likely to go. In my eyes they're probably a class below the pack.

 

[hrotha]

Great link. That should end the talk of Cav for WC which has been present on these forums of late. Suits a punchy climber like Gilbert, but the run to the line is long enough that there will probably be a bunch of punchy climbers with the one with the best sprint left in the tank to take the win. Gilbert/Hausler (if fit)/LL Sanchez

If I may quote myself: Grega Bole, baby!

(Except I don't want him to win; that would be too weird)

 

[markene2]

There is only one man that can win this. Vino

 

[taiwan]

There is only one man that can win this. Vino

Is he even riding?

[edit] Nope. Otherwise I would have had him down for this myself.

 

[El Pistolero]

Alpe: agreed that 'training' in the Vuelta (ie. riding a bit and pulling out) is a weird idea. But riding it seems to be a really good way to get yourself into form for the Worlds. I think that's what you're saying, right? Seems to me that Cancellara did fine 'training' and dropping out for the TT, but a) that's the time trial so training would probably be a bit different, and b) it's Cancellara so he could probably win even if he was drunk at a disco until 3am the night before.

On another note, aside from naming the favourites, who are people hoping will win? I think Oscar would definitely be at the top of my list, he's such a class rider and I'd love to see him get a 4th in the twilight of his career. Hushovd would be cool too, that guy's had a stellar career and alot of 'almosts' in big races. Cunego, too, after a quiet year. And, being Canadian, of course it's a dream even having someone to talk about as a possible top 10, so seeing Hesjedal break away on a good day would be alright for me, to say the least.

Don't want to see win: Cav, Pozzato.

I hope Gilbert will win.

 

[rghysens]

It might be like Flanders without the cobbles, but is Flanders without cobbles really that similar to Flanders? That's not a rhetorical question BTW. If Flanders is comparable I'd have to ranks Breschel as a top favourite to, which I certainly wouldn't mind.

The biggest difference with the RVV is not the lack of cobbles, but the lack of narrow roads. On the boulevards of Geelong it will be much more difficult to create a decent gap than on the narrow, twisty roads of Flanders.

 

[ak-zaaf]

My choice would be:
Rogers, Haussler, Evans, Gerrans, O'Grady, Hansen, Porte, Renshaw, Davis.

I'd always take McEwen.
Worlds rarely follow expected patterns and a group larger than what the profile predicted happens all the time.
Robbie will be there if there are 40 guys storming the last KM. So will Freire and Hushovd. Other real sprinters? Not so sure.

Haussler is by far the best bet for the Aussies, but Robbie deserved a spot.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I'd always take McEwen.
Worlds rarely follow expected patterns and a group larger than what the profile predicted happens all the time.
Robbie will be there if there are 40 guys storming the last KM. So will Freire and Hushovd. Other real sprinters? Not so sure.

Haussler is by far the best bet for the Aussies, but Robbie deserved a spot.

I don't think you understand how hard the climbs are! Probably not as hard as mendrisio but hard enough.

 

[Polyarmour]

I don't think you understand how hard the climbs are! Probably not as hard as mendrisio but hard enough.

I make it as 2 climbs of approximately 10% average. The first is 800-1000m, the second is 400-500m. The slope of the first climb increases near the top to 15-17%.

These 2 climbs are done 11 times. That's 22 short and nasty hills at 10%. That has to hurt.

A big opportunity for the punchy power climbers to attack and separate themselves from Cav (who clearly believes he can be there at the end). But if Cav isn't dropped, it's game over.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I make it as 2 climbs of approximately 10% average. The first is 800-1000m, the second is 400-500m. The slope of the first climb increases near the top to 15-17%.

These 2 climbs are done 11 times. That's 22 short and nasty hills at 10%. That has to hurt.

A big opportunity for the punchy power climbers to attack and separate themselves from Cav (who clearly believes he can be there at the end). But if Cav isn't dropped, it's game over.

Exactly, that's why I also find it weird that Cadel has said that he has no chance of winning here because it is not his course. I strongly disagree with him. Though Cadel is a very smart cookie so maybe he is luring his opponents into a false sense of security.

 

[Jamsque]

If Cadel is on form I think it's definitely a course that suits him, the climbs are are little shorter than in the Ardennes but that shouldn't bother him much.

 

[Ryaguas]

Exactly, that's why I also find it weird that Cadel has said that he has no chance of winning here because it is not his course. I strongly disagree with him. Though Cadel is a very smart cookie so maybe he is luring his opponents into a false sense of security.

I'm quite sure that is his strategy! I have Cadel very high in my favorites...

 

[hrotha]

800-1000 m and 400-500 m? That's way too short. I'll wait until the u23 race before I rule out a bunch sprint finish.

 

[Ryaguas]

800-1000 m and 400-500 m? That's way too short. I'll wait until the u23 race before I rule out a bunch sprint finish.

The thing is that those climbs are climbeb at high velocities even in the steepest parts... and that is going to break some legs... specially pure sprinter legs...

 

[Winterfold]

80m vertical over 800m . Did I see a blue circle with a 1 in it on the map? What does that mean?

Anyway, it's a bump, even in the UK on a sportive, I can see Cav getting over that without too much trouble.

 

[Sneekes]

They'd better hope the field breaks up - there may be wide boulevards downtown - but there's some tricky road furniture just before the first hill. Could be nasty if you've got 100 riders all trying to get through there in a hurry.

I can see why Cadel said it's not for him - the climbs aren't near enough the end - someone with a better sprint will get over them with him or near enough to catch him.

Sorry I can't be more original - it's Gilbert or Visconti for me, maybe even Cancellara.