UCI World Championships 2010, Geelong: Early Thread

[Gcraenen]

I would love to see Gilbert win, but if I had to name just one favorite, it would be Cadel Evans.
My dark horse money will be on the Irish team.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

80m vertical over 800m . Did I see a blue circle with a 1 in it on the map? What does that mean?

That it's a category 1 climb (in what race it would be a category 1 climb, I don't know)?

 

[maltiv]

To add another favourite few have mentioned (I think): Nicolas Roche. Climbs very well and has a decent sprint. He is riding the vuelta, so he should find some form there.

 

[taiwan]

To add another favourite few have mentioned (I think): Nicolas Roche. Climbs very well and has a decent sprint. He is riding the vuelta, so he should find some form there.

I think in order not to overrate Roche, "dark horse" is the term to use.

[edit]

Taiwan, Maltiv, scroll up just 2 posts.

Yeah, I'd seen you post, I agree.

 

[Gcraenen]

Maxime Montfort has announced today that he will not be going to Australia. He was selected for the ITT and as an alternate for the RR. Opinion: If selected, should you go? Or is it OK to decline? Assuming no injuries of course.

 

[Gcraenen]

I think in order not to overrate Roche, "dark horse" is the term to use.

Taiwan, Maltiv, scroll up just 2 posts.

 

[auscyclefan94]

They'd better hope the field breaks up - there may be wide boulevards downtown - but there's some tricky road furniture just before the first hill. Could be nasty if you've got 100 riders all trying to get through there in a hurry.

I can see why Cadel said it's not for him - the climbs aren't near enough the end - someone with a better sprint will get over them with him or near enough to catch him.

Sorry I can't be more original - it's Gilbert or Visconti for me, maybe even Cancellara.

I don't see how visconti is a better chance than cadel. the others you could make a reasonable case for. It is a very technical course coming off the final climb so it doesn't suit riders who will have to organise a chase from behind. Don't forget that finishing straight is 4-5% so judging the sprint will be difficult.

I think for australia, another possible chance if he has good legs from the vuelta is Matt Goss.

 

[hrotha]

Taiwan, Maltiv, scroll up just 2 posts.

To be fair, that post said "the Irish team", as if somehow Martin could win this.

I don't see how visconti is a better chance than cadel.

Visconti can sprint.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Visconti can sprint.

I would say in this finish cadel is also has a very strong sprint.

 

[Gcraenen]

Good point Hrota

But Putting Visconti ahead of the defending champ on home soil seems like reaching.

 

[hrotha]

I would say in this finish cadel is also has a very strong sprint.

No doubt Cadel can has cheezburger, but we're talking about a whole 'nother level here.

 

[maltiv]

Taiwan, Maltiv, scroll up just 2 posts.

How could I know you referred to Nicolas Roche when you said irish? You could have meant...eh...Dan Martin...or something.

 

[Gcraenen]

How could I know you referred to Nicolas Roche when you said irish? You could have meant...eh...Dan Martin...or something.

Well, the Irish team will only have 3 riders, and they may as well be Roche, Roche, and Roche. (jr, jr, and sr.)

 

[taiwan]

Well, the Irish team will only have 3 riders, and they may as well be Roche, Roche, and Roche. (jr, jr, and sr.)

Matthew Brammeier? Beat them both in the Irish Champs.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Cadel has a pretty solid sprint, but he wouldn't beat Visconti to the line. This is the kind of parcours Visconti likes a lot, too.

On the other hand, mostly flat with a couple of short but very steep climbs sounds like the same terrain Michele Scarponi built up his lead in Tirreno-Adriatico in. Those climbs were a bit longer and steeper than these.

I can't consider Evans a favourite given how far away from the finish the climbs are. Seems to be one for the classics guys, but not really lumpy enough to make it one where the GC guys should be considered above those who can force themselves over the climbs. One-day specialists like Gilbert and Visconti are certainly the types of names to watch out for here. Evans will be there or thereabouts, but I'm not going to expect him to win, even on home turf. The best way for them to get an Evans win on home turf would be to put the finish on Old Willunga Hill and hope for a Flèche Wallonne type climax.

This race does make me think of Paolo Bettini again, though.

 

[La Pandera]

Thanks for that. I am wondering were I should watch the race. It will be weird as the course will be on suburban streets just like in Melbourne for some of the course so it will have a different look and atmosphere than a worlds course in europe.

We expect pictures ACF--and not just of Cadel! Try to get some spy photos of the bikes too! Have a great time by the way! I'm envious. I missed the WC's in Hamilton, Ontario which is only about a 2 hour drive.

 

[Ferminal]

That it's a category 1 climb (in what race it would be a category 1 climb, I don't know)?

The 1 refers to it being the first climb, not its category.

 

[auscyclefan94]

We expect pictures ACF--and not just of Cadel! Try to get some spy photos of the bikes too! Have a great time by the way! I'm envious. I missed the WC's in Hamilton, Ontario which is only about a 2 hour drive.

I will try! I am unsure of how to post pictures up from a digital camera to a forum so if somebody could PM me the instructions (if it is possible) then it would be much appreciated.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Just some things about the geelong road race course. These are my calculations from looking at the magnified profile of the course.
Climb 1: (The Ridge) - 1.1km at 9.1% (Summit 9.5km from the finish)3/4 up the ridge climb
Climb 2 (Aphrasia ST) 700m at 8.3% (Summit 6.4km from the finish)On Skinny Bridge looking at 2nd climb (You can turn street view man to see how skinny the bridge really is)

Final 750m (finishing straight) is a 2.5% drag with the 200m at 4-5%

IN the middle of the two climbs there is a very fast descent which leads to the 2nd climb. Thought there is a technical bit which they cross Barwon River. That part which is the lead up to the 2nd climb is quite technical and the roads are skinny. They are doing renovations on the bridge currently as it does not pass uci regulations of 6m.Skiiny bridge coming off descent

The run off the final climb is not a steep descent and it will suit the bunch chasing with straght flat roads to the finish with a crosswind in the final km

 

[auscyclefan94]

I will do a mini course preview of tt course at a later date.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Updated version with correct links

Just some things about the geelong road race course. These are my calculations from looking at the magnified profile of the course.
Climb 1:1.1km at 9.1%(Summit 9.5km from the finish) (The Ridge) - 1.1km at 9.1%
Climb 2 (Aphrasia ST) (Aphrasia St) 650m at 7.9%( (Summit 6.4km from the finish)

In the middle of the two climbs there is a very fast descent which leads to the 2nd climb. Thought there is a technical bit which they cross Barwon River. That part which is the lead up to the 2nd climb is quite technical and the roads are skinny. They are doing renovations on the bridge currently as it does not pass uci regulations of 6m.)On Skinny Bridge looking at 2nd climb (You can turn street view man to see how skinny the bridge really is)

The run off the final climb is not a steep descent and it will suit the bunch chasing with straight flat roads to the finish with a crosswind in the final km

Final 750m (finishing straight) is a 2.5% drag with the 200m at 4-5%

 

[Winterfold]

That it's a category 1 climb (in what race it would be a category 1 climb, I don't know)?

I know that it normally it means that it is a cat 1 climb, but here it must mean something else - perhaps in Ozzie the cats are upside down - and 1 is the easiest?

Mind you I dont have to do it 11 times at 30kph...

 

[ingsve]

One name that I haven't seen mentioned is Rojas. I know with Freires history in the Worlds it's hard not to think of him first but I think it would be unwise for them to put all their eggs in the Freire basket. Freire may still be the first choice on these types of courses but Rojas is certainly the crown prince and should soon take over as the main spanish threat in these types of races.

 

[auscyclefan94]

One name that I haven't seen mentioned is Rojas. I know with Freires history in the Worlds it's hard not to think of him first but I think it would be unwise for them to put all their eggs in the Freire basket. Freire may still be the first choice on these types of courses but Rojas is certainly the crown prince and should soon take over as the main spanish threat in these types of races.

Yes he is a sprinter that could win as it will be an attacking final few laps of the course. He is the guy that can go with the moves and sprint. The sprint is also quite tough so he will have a good chance if on form.

 

[Luis Ocaña]

One name that I haven't seen mentioned is Rojas. I know with Freires history in the Worlds it's hard not to think of him first but I think it would be unwise for them to put all their eggs in the Freire basket. Freire may still be the first choice on these types of courses but Rojas is certainly the crown prince and should soon take over as the main spanish threat in these types of races.

I doubt they will. The short, steep hills suit perfectly for an explosive climber like Purito, and in a smaller group (with no real sprinters left), LL Sanchez isn't chanceless on that slightly uphill finish.

I guess the Belgians (among others, but particularly them) will be trying to make the race as hard as possible, which could allow the Spaniards (my compatriots) to check out things from the second row, see how the race develops and make a decision during the race who would be the best horse to bet on.