USADA - Armstrong

[DirtyWorks]

How would they do this?

My plebian method would be to simply disagree with USADA and void their decision. But, Pat and Hein are way more creative than that, so I'm positive they can come up with something better. Look at it another way, CAS gave Contador's doping an honorable way out by unilaterally declaring how the Clenbuterol likely got into his body.

I wouldn't have imagined a Friday afternoon press release, but it happened. I'm prepared for another Friday afternoon press release crushing hope, again.

 

[MacRoadie]

An Indian blitzkrieg at the Alamo?

Well, was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

 

[tofino]

Lance has already been cleared by the Feds on the ILLEGAL stuff.

Nice attempt at some revisionist history in regard to the grand jury process.
Please provide (non-Armstrong PR BS) that he was CLEARED of any charges???

Again I say "keep rubbing your yellow bracelet, everything will be fine"

 

[Merckx index]

But how did the USADA convince the riders they "had enough info to make a case". Did they hint they had access to GJ testimony? That would be misleading? Intimidating? Will this become public, these backroom deals? Who was offered what? Seems that should become public. No reason to hide that I would think.
Be truthful.

No need to mention the GJ testimony. This is where the Prisoner’s Dilemma plays out. You start with one guy, and you say to him, Floyd (or Tyler) saw you doping. If you will admit this to us, and tell us who else was involved, we will give you a reduced sanction. If you don't care to admit anything and take your chances, so be it, but we have invited other teammates of yours here, so don't think it will just be one witness against you.

So this guy tells them about other guys, and USADA then goes to the other guys. They implicate still more, including the original source, which tightens the case against him.

How about Zabriskie, for example? Though he and Floyd were very close, he was one of the first riders Floyd named when he confessed. If they tell Z that Floyd told them he saw him doping, Z will every reason to believe that. Z will also know that 60 minutes reported that George testified against LA, and will reasonably conclude that USADA will talk to George, who may also implicate Z. And there may be others.

Even if Z doesn't think the case is that good against him, USADA has another ace up its sleeve. They tell him that they are going to charge him, on the basis of the testimony they have, which means an immediate suspension. So even if fights the charges and wins, the rest of his season is shot, plus his image will be tainted. Whereas if he cooperates, USADA will let him at least start the TDF, and/or any other pro race for the rest of the season, though not the Olympics.

So faced with a certain end to his racing season and a very likely two year suspension, on the one hand, or permission to continue racing in everything but the Olympics and a limited suspension of, say, one year, Z cooperates. Z in turn could implicate Levi, as could Tyler, and Frankie, who already has admitted doping, and has almost nothing to lose at this point. All five of these guys—Floyd, Tyler, Zabriskie, Leipheimer and Andreu—could testify against George, in case he initially resisted talking to USADA. So could Vaughters, whom I’m also guessing would have come to USADA more or less willingly, given certain assurances about his future. And some of them could testify against VandeVelde.

USADA wouldn’t even have to focus on LA. That is, they wouldn’t have to say to each rider, tell us what you know about LA. They could just say, describe to us what happened, everything. Most of the riders would no doubt prefer not to mention LA, but again, they are working under the assumption that their testimony will be contradicted by someone else’s if they don’t tell the whole truth. For any rider who testified before the GJ, there will be no realistic option not to implicate LA. Even if some of these riders did not testify before the GJ, they still would hesitate not to say anything they know about LA, because they know that if their testimony is contradicted by several other riders, they will probably lose their reduced sanction. Once they've admitted doping, they are guaranteed a sanction of some sort, and everything else they do will be focussed on reducing the sanction. That means telling the truth about LA, but it also means not making stuff up about LA.

For reference, here is a list of the likeliest suspects, and their years on USPS:

Hamilton 96-00
GH 97-04
Andreu 98-00
JV 98-99
Vande 98-03
Livingston 99-00
LL 00-01
Z 01-04
Landis 02-04

I expect, that when it all comes out (if it does), that we will learn that Lance got offered exactly the same deal by USADA as all of the other Posties (that's how I read the letter).

You mean, a reduced sanction? Maybe keep some titles?

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

He stands better if he wants to keep his fans by saying "no comment".

At the moment its a living and breathing workshop in how not to perform damage control!

For sure! He'd be better off not commenting as you say, then just keep his mouth shut and let the system play this thing out.

 

[thehog]

No need to mention the GJ testimony. This is where the Prisoner’s Dilemma plays out. You start with one guy, and you say to him, Floyd (or Tyler) saw you doping. If you will admit this to us, and tell us who else was involved, we will give you a reduced sanction. If you don't care to admit anything and take your chances, so be it, but we have invited other teammates of yours here, so don't think it will just be one witness against you.

So this guy tells them about other guys, and USADA then goes to the other guys. They implicate still more, including the original source, which tightens the case against him.

How about Zabriskie, for example? Though he and Floyd were very close, he was one of the first riders Floyd named when he confessed. If they tell Z that Floyd told them he saw him doping, Z will every reason to believe that. Z will also know that 60 minutes reported that George testified against LA, and will reasonably conclude that USADA will talk to George, who may also implicate Z. And there may be others.

Even if Z doesn't think the case is that good against him, USADA has another ace up its sleeve. They tell him that they are going to charge him, on the basis of the testimony they have, which means an immediate suspension. So even if fights the charges and wins, the rest of his season is shot, plus his image will be tainted. Whereas if he cooperates, USADA will let him at least start the TDF, and/or any other pro race for the rest of the season, though not the Olympics.

So faced with a certain end to his racing season and a very likely two year suspension, on the one hand, or permission to continue racing in everything but the Olympics and a limited suspension of, say, one year, Z cooperates. Z in turn could implicate Levi, as could Tyler, and Frankie, who already has admitted doping, and has almost nothing to lose at this point. All five of these guys—Floyd, Tyler, Zabriskie, Leipheimer and Andreu—could testify against George, in case he initially resisted talking to USADA. So could Vaughters, whom I’m also guessing would have come to USADA more or less willingly, given certain assurances about his future. And some of them could testify against VandeVelde.

USADA wouldn’t even have to focus on LA. That is, they wouldn’t have to say to each rider, tell us what you know about LA. They could just say, describe to us what happened, everything. Most of the riders would no doubt prefer not to mention LA, but again, they are working under the assumption that their testimony will be contradicted by someone else’s if they don’t tell the whole truth. For any rider who testified before the GJ, there will be no realistic option not to implicate LA. Even if some of these riders did not testify before the GJ, they still would hesitate not to say anything they know about LA, because they know that if their testimony is contradicted by several other riders, they will probably lose their reduced sanction. Once they've admitted doping, they are guaranteed a sanction of some sort, and everything else they do will be focussed on reducing the sanction. That means telling the truth about LA, but it also means not making stuff up about LA.

For reference, here is a list of the likeliest suspects, and their years on USPS:

Hamilton 96-00
GH 97-04
Andreu 98-00
JV 98-99
Vande 98-03
Livingston 99-00
LL 00-01
Z 01-04
Landis 02-04



You mean, a reduced sanction? Maybe keep some titles?

Geez mate lay off the peace pipe. I think you'll find that normal blokes talked in a normal way. It was hardly a Miami Vice shake down.

You do go on...

 

[joe_papp]

Because only a moron would photograph their drug use???!!! Most obvious answer on the forum ever.

You mean only a moron would let someone else photograph their drug use.

 

[BotanyBay]

Nothing nefarious about it. Weisel essentially owns USAC. Wonderboy is on the Board of Directors of USACDF. Every person friendly with Weisel/Tailwind populate USAC's Board-level position. There is no federation indepence here. None.

USAC, and by extension the UCI can, definitely throw a spanner into what should be an open and shut case for USADA.

Exactly the reason why the USADA was created as an independent operator. Trust me, if USADA were not actually independent, the case they're now bringing never would have been instigated at all.

Never in a million years did Lance think that he'd get sloppy enough to be required to FACE the rules that he himself (through his agent) helped create.

Part of the reason Lance willingly participated in creating such fair rules was an attempt at appearing clean. You know, sorta like "What thief would center his operations across the street from a police station?". No one ever would have suspected it.

As Greg said: "If it is true, it will be the greatest fraud".

And yes, it is one of the greatest sporting frauds of all time.

 

[mastersracer]

No need to mention the GJ testimony. This is where the Prisoner’s Dilemma plays out. You start with one guy, and you say to him, Floyd (or Tyler) saw you doping. If you will admit this to us, and tell us who else was involved, we will give you a reduced sanction. If you don't care to admit anything and take your chances, so be it, but we have invited other teammates of yours here, so don't think it will just be one witness against you.

Hamilton 96-00
GH 97-04
Andreu 98-00
JV 98-99
Vande 98-03
Livingston 99-00
LL 00-01
Z 01-04
Landis 02-04



You mean, a reduced sanction? Maybe keep some titles?

Re the PD formulation, that only works if it's one-shot. In real life, it's iterated. I think this is why LA presumed he was safe - he treated his inner circle very well and punished severely those who spoke against him.

I suspect what is different in the most recent investigation is Tygart's participation in the Federal investigation and his presence during the interviews under oath involving - likely - these same riders. He then calls them into the USADA investigation and asks them the same questions. The riders know he knows, so now we have a 2nd order strategic problem. They could lie to him, but now he would know it is a lie. He could ask them if they are sure they want to testify to that during a hearing under oath. They know they made contradictory testimony to a GJ. Whether or not that testimony can be unsealed, the question is, do they have uncertainty whether it could be presented again?

The timing of these investigations can't be coincidental.

 

[BotanyBay]

I expect, that when it all comes out (if it does), that we will learn that Lance got offered exactly the same deal by USADA as all of the other Posties (that's how I read the letter).
You mean, a reduced sanction? Maybe keep some titles?

"Hey Travis, it's me Lance. I've been thinking long and hard, and I'm ready to offer up something. I saw Frankie and Kevin take a whole bunch of EPO one month. I'll testify to it if you'll gimme immunity."

 

[ChewbaccaD]

You mean only a moron would let someone else photograph their drug use.

No, from experience with other types of drugs, I know that the guy behind the camera would only be present if he were also partaking in the drugs themselves also. That's why I used "their."

 

[BotanyBay]

No, from experience with other types of drugs, I know that the guy behind the camera would only be present if he were also partaking in the drugs themselves also. That's why I used "their."

Lance probably has a closet full of personal images that record the irony of his split personality. I'll bet he's got Sheryl Crow on tape barking like a dog too.

 

[ChewbaccaD]

Lance probably has a closet full of personal images that record the irony of his split personality. I'll bet he's got Sheryl Crow on tape barking like a dog too.

That's the tape I want to see, though I get the feeling that in the beginning, Sheryl taught Lance a couple of things he had yet to learn.

 

[MrRoboto]

I remember from that Vaughters-Frankie conversation, Vaughters talks about Landis showing him a pic of how they smuggled in blood bags.

 

[MarkvW]

Re the PD formulation, that only works if it's one-shot. In real life, it's iterated. I think this is why LA presumed he was safe - he treated his inner circle very well and punished severely those who spoke against him.

I suspect what is different in the most recent investigation is Tygart's participation in the Federal investigation and his presence during the interviews under oath involving - likely - these same riders. He then calls them into the USADA investigation and asks them the same questions. The riders know he knows, so now we have a 2nd order strategic problem. They could lie to him, but now he would know it is a lie. He could ask them if they are sure they want to testify to that during a hearing under oath. They know they made contradictory testimony to a GJ. Whether or not that testimony can be unsealed, the question is, do they have uncertainty whether it could be presented again?

The timing of these investigations can't be coincidental.

Of course the timing is not coincidental! Floyd Landis!

 

[MarkvW]

Exactly the reason why the USADA was created as an independent operator. Trust me, if USADA were not actually independent, the case they're now bringing never would have been instigated at all.

Never in a million years did Lance think that he'd get sloppy enough to be required to FACE the rules that he himself (through his agent) helped create.

Part of the reason Lance willingly participated in creating such fair rules was an attempt at appearing clean. You know, sorta like "What thief would center his operations across the street from a police station?". No one ever would have suspected it.

As Greg said: "If it is true, it will be the greatest fraud".

And yes, it is one of the greatest sporting frauds of all time.

The "only a moron would be stupid enough to . . ." argument always makes me laugh. The jails are filled with people who were "stupid enough to . . .."

A while ago, Lance said "I like our credibility." I think he's now been reduced to "I like my credibility."

Lance's only hope is to avoid a hearing. From what I can figure that would only happen if he can get the US federation to intervene on his behalf. Boy, would that be ugly.

 

[python]

...........

I suspect what is different in the most recent investigation is Tygart's participation in the Federal investigation and his presence during the interviews under oath involving - likely - these same riders. He then calls them into the USADA investigation and asks them the same questions. The riders know he knows, so now we have a 2nd order strategic problem. They could lie to him, but now he would know it is a lie. He could ask them if they are sure they want to testify to that during a hearing under oath. They know they made contradictory testimony to a GJ. Whether or not that testimony can be unsealed, the question is, do they have uncertainty whether it could be presented again?

The timing of these investigations can't be coincidental.

excellent analysis.

Keep in mind that the timing of the usada interviews with SOME of the grand jury witnesses may have coincided with the period when it was not at all clear if the federal probe will be dropped. Iow, they may have been believing the perjury threat if what they told Novi was not consistent with what they told usada...

 

[131313]

Lance's only hope is to avoid a hearing. From what I can figure that would only happen if he can get the US federation to intervene on his behalf. Boy, would that be ugly.

Well, that or the review board decides there's not enough evidence to have a hearing. Anything's possible, but neither of those scenarios seem likely. There's too much information in the public domain right now.

Here's one big problem with Armstrong's War on the USADA and "the process". What happens if/when this makes it to a hearing? If you're going to complain about how unfair everything has been, you think you'd want the entire process open to the public, as is your right. Rut roh....

At that point, there's no winning the war of public opinion, even if he beats the rap on some procedural grounds. Yet, if he asks for the hearing to be closed to the public (as is also his right) then question becomes "what are you trying to hide?. Let's see this unfair process!".

It looks like there are a lot of bad options on the table and not much else.

 

[BotanyBay]

The "only a moron would be stupid enough to . . ." argument always makes me laugh. The jails are filled with people who were "stupid enough to . . .."

A while ago, Lance said "I like our credibility." I think he's now been reduced to "I like my credibility."

Lance's only hope is to avoid a hearing. From what I can figure that would only happen if he can get the US federation to intervene on his behalf. Boy, would that be ugly.

If USAC were to intervene, I'll never race in a USAC event ever again, nor will I renew my license. OBRA would sound pretty good.

 

[ChewbaccaD]

The "only a moron would be stupid enough to . . ." argument always makes me laugh. The jails are filled with people who were "stupid enough to . . .."

A while ago, Lance said "I like our credibility." I think he's now been reduced to "I like my credibility."

Lance's only hope is to avoid a hearing. From what I can figure that would only happen if he can get the US federation to intervene on his behalf. Boy, would that be ugly.

So you believe Lance allowed someone to take a picture or video of him using doping products... Not to mention the fact that my quote was "only a moron would allow..." meaning that I don't think Armstrong is that much of a moron. Being actually trained in the law, I am fully aware of the stupidity of the great majority of criminals.

But, if those photos show up, you can finally have the little win you keep chasing. Till then, your 0-5. I think you need a new coach or maybe a better Google hand or something...

EDIT: I do notice you stay away from putting out ignorant legal opinions now though. Good choice. You really just aren't that good at pretending to be legally competent.

 

[Polish]

You made the "cleared" statement before.
Then you backed down when you were called on it.
Now you make the "cleared" statement again.

That's not a fair way to participate in a discussion.

IIRC, I made my vow to stop saying "cleared by the Feds" about the same time you vowed "never to return see ya". Welcome back, BTW.

But when I noticed a CN article using the term "cleared by the Feds" soon after, I chuckled and started using the term myself. Sorry, could not help it.

And lets face it - Lance WAS cleared by the Feds. Google "Lance Armstrong cleared by the Feds" and you will get thousands of hits. And only a few hundred would be from me lol.

 

[MarkvW]

Well, that or the review board decides there's not enough evidence to have a hearing. Anything's possible, but neither of those scenarios seem likely. There's too much information in the public domain right now.

Here's one big problem with Armstrong's War on the USADA and "the process". What happens if/when this makes it to a hearing? If you're going to complain about how unfair everything has been, you think you'd want the entire process open to the public, as is your right. Rut roh....

At that point, there's no winning the war of public opinion, even if he beats the rap on some procedural grounds. Yet, if he asks for the hearing to be closed to the public (as is also his right) then question becomes "what are you trying to hide?. Let's see this unfair process!".

It looks like there are a lot of bad options on the table and not much else.

If it makes it to a hearing, I think Armstrong has lost. I expect that all his efforts will be directed toward preventing a hearing. But then, I thought he wouldn't go full *** and fight. . . .

 

[ChewbaccaD]

IIRC, I made my vow to stop saying "cleared by the Feds" about the same time you vowed "never to return see ya". Welcome back, BTW.

But when I noticed a CN article using the term "cleared by the Feds" soon after, I chuckled and started using the term myself. Sorry, could not help it.

And lets face it - Lance WAS cleared by the Feds. Google "Lance Armstrong cleared by the Feds" and you will get thousands of hits. And only a few hundred would be from me lol.

I wish he'd kept his promise, and I wish you'd make one...but hey, seeing Armstrong go down is good enough I guess...

 

[thehog]

excellent analysis.

Keep in mind that the timing of the usada interviews with SOME of the grand jury witnesses may have coincided with the period when it was not at all clear if the federal probe will be dropped. Iow, they may have been believing the perjury threat if what they told Novi was not consistent with what they told usada...

There was also the statement that leaked from the GJ hearings that it wasn't a matter of getting people to talk. That was the easy part. The problem was to get them to stop crying so they could get the stories out. Apparently the GJ process was cathartic for many. They're no longer afraid.

I would also state that if Armstrong attempted any form of intimidation to any of the witnesses or to towards the USADA panel then he's in for a shock. This is being monitored very closely. He will have to watch his step in regards to public statements to the witnesses involved and to Mr. T....

 

[BotanyBay]

If it makes it to a hearing, I think Armstrong has lost. I expect that all his efforts will be directed toward preventing a hearing. But then, I thought he wouldn't go full *** and fight. . . .

I think he's (sort of) already lost. What we're seeing right now is just the tantrum that goes with losing. He'll always have his fanboy and fanboy-hires to prop-up the idea that he's still got something tangible to fight.

On this note, I do not think we'll ever see a big "V-L" (Victory over Lance) day where we all get to dance in the streets. Anything the USADA does to him will just be countered with his sponsors refusing to disown him, etc. There will be no making his "brand" go away overnight. If he gets his Tours taken away, then ASO will just decide to stop revising past results and re-awarding titles to the next-up. The UCI will say nothing. Nike will mostly be on to new athletes. Oakley will be the Jordache of fashion eyewear by that time too. LAF will shrink in its reach, and only his waning supply of die-hard fanboys will bother to identify with it.