Teams & Riders Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

[Red Rick]

I don't think expecting a much better outcome than today was reasonable at all. First time in Vlaanderen, no races since Sanremo. He tried to do something in the best place he could, and blew up. He wasn't gonna do the last Kwaremont/Pater combo with the likes of GvA and Sagan so attacking before that was the sensible move.

 

[El Pistolero]

Re:

I don't think expecting a much better outcome than today was reasonable at all. First time in Vlaanderen, no races since Sanremo. He tried to do something in the best place he could, and blew up. He wasn't gonna do the last Kwaremont/Pater combo with the likes of GvA and Sagan so attacking before that was the sensible move.

Well, there were two guys in the top ten today that never rode the Ronde either.

Not racing since San Remo probably hurt him the most.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

At LBL Nibali will have to contend with very strong Movistar and Quickstep teams that are targeting the Ardennes with Valverde and Alaphilippe. Those two riders and Dan Martin specifically target Ardennes week and peak for it.

QS isn't going to work together with Movistar, no matter how much you want that to happen. Alaphilippe and Dan Martin haven't been very impressive this season anyway.

Especially Dan Martin is over-rated in general, Nibali eats guys like that for breakfast.

Occasionally yes, but very often those guys eats him alive. Especially at Liege...

Good race today, but I think this race isn't for him. With the right preparation, and if everything falls into place for him, he could crack top 10, maybe even top 5, but that would be it.

It is the first time in many many years that he specifically targets Liege. As history has taught us, when Nibali targets a big race, most of the time he either wins, finishes on the podium or sometimes crashes. I have a hard time thinking of anybody outside Valverde who could defeat him in this years LBL and there are guys more capable than Martin this year, think of Bardet, Kwiat or even Uran if he's riding.

Thus proving the point that there are lot of teams that aren't going to let him go off the front like he did at MSR.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

I don't think expecting a much better outcome than today was reasonable at all. First time in Vlaanderen, no races since Sanremo. He tried to do something in the best place he could, and blew up. He wasn't gonna do the last Kwaremont/Pater combo with the likes of GvA and Sagan so attacking before that was the sensible move.

Exactly. He didn't quite blow up like Kwia but rather didn't have the legs to follow Terpstra and then he had to face the last Kware/Pater with all the big boys going full gas and he was gapped with his Bahrain boys and a few others. The sprints for position got him in the end.

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

At LBL Nibali will have to contend with very strong Movistar and Quickstep teams that are targeting the Ardennes with Valverde and Alaphilippe. Those two riders and Dan Martin specifically target Ardennes week and peak for it.

QS isn't going to work together with Movistar, no matter how much you want that to happen. Alaphilippe and Dan Martin haven't been very impressive this season anyway.

Especially Dan Martin is over-rated in general, Nibali eats guys like that for breakfast.

Occasionally yes, but very often those guys eats him alive. Especially at Liege...

Good race today, but I think this race isn't for him. With the right preparation, and if everything falls into place for him, he could crack top 10, maybe even top 5, but that would be it.

It is the first time in many many years that he specifically targets Liege. As history has taught us, when Nibali targets a big race, most of the time he either wins, finishes on the podium or sometimes crashes. I have a hard time thinking of anybody outside Valverde who could defeat him in this years LBL and there are guys more capable than Martin this year, think of Bardet, Kwiat or even Uran if he's riding.

You're maybe forgetting Liege is not Lombardia. There are very hard and tough mountains around Lake Como, you haven't got that in the Belgium Ardennes. You've got tough hills, but not mountains. Nibali is not exactly a major force on those hills, so he must create some kind of a chaos, to make Valverde uncomfortable. If he waits St.Nicolas, than it's better to step off his bike immediately cause he ain't gonna win that race. So the best spot for him to attack might be on Falcon's Rock, or even better on that uphill part after it, and those three you mentioned could be the best possible allies. But I doubt Valverde would miss that kind of move. The only way I see Nibali is beating Valverde, is to overpower him directly, one on one. If he attacks, Valverde will follow I think, cause Vincenzo is one of the major threats atm. And then he needs to attack him again and again until he drops him. That's the only way imo, cause I don;t see Valverde not following Nibali's move this year. Of course, someone third could profit from that battle as well...

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

At LBL Nibali will have to contend with very strong Movistar and Quickstep teams that are targeting the Ardennes with Valverde and Alaphilippe. Those two riders and Dan Martin specifically target Ardennes week and peak for it.

QS isn't going to work together with Movistar, no matter how much you want that to happen. Alaphilippe and Dan Martin haven't been very impressive this season anyway.

Especially Dan Martin is over-rated in general, Nibali eats guys like that for breakfast.

Occasionally yes, but very often those guys eats him alive. Especially at Liege...

Good race today, but I think this race isn't for him. With the right preparation, and if everything falls into place for him, he could crack top 10, maybe even top 5, but that would be it.

It is the first time in many many years that he specifically targets Liege. As history has taught us, when Nibali targets a big race, most of the time he either wins, finishes on the podium or sometimes crashes. I have a hard time thinking of anybody outside Valverde who could defeat him in this years LBL and there are guys more capable than Martin this year, think of Bardet, Kwiat or even Uran if he's riding.

You're maybe forgetting Liege is not Lombardia. There are very hard and tough mountains around Lake Como, you haven't got that in the Belgium Ardennes. You've got tough hills, but not mountains. Nibali is not exactly a major force on those hills, so he must create some kind of a chaos, to make Valverde uncomfortable. If he waits St.Nicolas, than it's better to step off his bike immediately cause he ain't gonna win that race. So the best spot for him to attack might be on Falcon's Rock, or even better on that uphill part after it, and those three you mentioned could be the best possible allies. But I doubt Valverde would miss that kind of move. The only way I see Nibali is beating Valverde, is to overpower him directly, one on one. If he attacks, Valverde will follow I think, cause Vincenzo is one of the major threats atm. And then he needs to attack him again and again until he drops him. That's the only way imo, cause I don;t see Valverde not following Nibali's move this year. Of course, someone third could profit from that battle as well...

Could we please not ignore the fact that a bunch sprint in LBL isn't how the race has been for ages, but something completely new. Yeah, the race hasn't been decided by an attack on the Saint Nicolas or earlier for a few years now but it seems like some people are suddenly assuming it's impossible to finish Liege solo.
No, if Nibali attacks Valverde will not follow directly, at least I don't expect that, because Valverde wants this race to finish in a sprint and isolating himself is not the way to achieve that. The one thing Nibali needs is a very hard race from a long way out, and if he uses his team properly and the rest of the bunch doesn't race for 2nd place that should be possible.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

At LBL Nibali will have to contend with very strong Movistar and Quickstep teams that are targeting the Ardennes with Valverde and Alaphilippe. Those two riders and Dan Martin specifically target Ardennes week and peak for it.

QS isn't going to work together with Movistar, no matter how much you want that to happen. Alaphilippe and Dan Martin haven't been very impressive this season anyway.

Especially Dan Martin is over-rated in general, Nibali eats guys like that for breakfast.

Occasionally yes, but very often those guys eats him alive. Especially at Liege...

Good race today, but I think this race isn't for him. With the right preparation, and if everything falls into place for him, he could crack top 10, maybe even top 5, but that would be it.

It is the first time in many many years that he specifically targets Liege. As history has taught us, when Nibali targets a big race, most of the time he either wins, finishes on the podium or sometimes crashes. I have a hard time thinking of anybody outside Valverde who could defeat him in this years LBL and there are guys more capable than Martin this year, think of Bardet, Kwiat or even Uran if he's riding.

You're maybe forgetting Liege is not Lombardia. There are very hard and tough mountains around Lake Como, you haven't got that in the Belgium Ardennes. You've got tough hills, but not mountains. Nibali is not exactly a major force on those hills, so he must create some kind of a chaos, to make Valverde uncomfortable. If he waits St.Nicolas, than it's better to step off his bike immediately cause he ain't gonna win that race. So the best spot for him to attack might be on Falcon's Rock, or even better on that uphill part after it, and those three you mentioned could be the best possible allies. But I doubt Valverde would miss that kind of move. The only way I see Nibali is beating Valverde, is to overpower him directly, one on one. If he attacks, Valverde will follow I think, cause Vincenzo is one of the major threats atm. And then he needs to attack him again and again until he drops him. That's the only way imo, cause I don;t see Valverde not following Nibali's move this year. Of course, someone third could profit from that battle as well...

Could we please not ignore the fact that a bunch sprint in LBL isn't how the race has been for ages, but something completely new. Yeah, the race hasn't been decided by an attack on the Saint Nicolas or earlier for a few years now but it seems like some people are suddenly assuming it's impossible to finish Liege solo.
No, if Nibali attacks Valverde will not follow directly, at least I don't expect that, because Valverde wants this race to finish in a sprint and isolating himself is not the way to achieve that. The one thing Nibali needs is a very hard race from a long way out, and if he uses his team properly and the rest of the bunch doesn't race for 2nd place that should be possible.[/quote]


Right there is the problem. There are a bunch of riders before the race even starts that are more than happy to concede victory to Valverde and are more than happy to race for those podium positions.

 

[Red Rick]

LBL is pretty simple. Either a top contender attacks early on the RaF, or the race doesn't explode at all. Nibali has the team to make the race hard and he has teammates who can make their own moves on La Redoute or before if necessary.

I'm expecting him to be the best he's ever been in Liege. If he goes balls deep on the Roche, Valverde better come out cause his teammates will be far behind.

 

[Eli]

Re:

I'm expecting him to be the best he's ever been in Liege. If he goes balls deep on the Roche, Valverde better come out cause his teammates will be far behind.

He might not even have to. Others teams like QS and UAE might decide to pull to get their Main Men back in the game playing into Bala's hands.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I'm expecting him to be the best he's ever been in Liege. If he goes balls deep on the Roche, Valverde better come out cause his teammates will be far behind.

He might not even have to. Others teams like QS and UAE might decide to pull to get their Main Men back in the game playing into Bala's hands.

There shouldn't be many.

Anyway, expecting the last 2 stages of PV, the AGR and FW to give an indication of what's to come.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

I'm expecting him to be the best he's ever been in Liege. If he goes balls deep on the Roche, Valverde better come out cause his teammates will be far behind.

He might not even have to. Others teams like QS and UAE might decide to pull to get their Main Men back in the game playing into Bala's hands.

QS especially because we all know Alaphilippe can't match Nibali or Valverde in climbing and attacks. QS will have a solid team around Alaphilippe.

 

[Eli]

Re: Re:

I'm expecting him to be the best he's ever been in Liege. If he goes balls deep on the Roche, Valverde better come out cause his teammates will be far behind.

He might not even have to. Others teams like QS and UAE might decide to pull to get their Main Men back in the game playing into Bala's hands.

There shouldn't be many.

Anyway, expecting the last 2 stages of PV, the AGR and FW to give an indication of what's to come.

Only FW would give an indication of what's to come. AGR new route does not suit Valverde so He won't win there. FW is perfect Valverde territory. I'd love Him to win there again just not the way He's been winning it the last few years.

 

[El Pistolero]

Pretty sure this is the Nibali thread, not the dog thread.

 

[Eli]

Re: Re:

I'm expecting him to be the best he's ever been in Liege. If he goes balls deep on the Roche, Valverde better come out cause his teammates will be far behind.

He might not even have to. Others teams like QS and UAE might decide to pull to get their Main Men back in the game playing into Bala's hands.

QS especially because we all know Alaphilippe can't match Nibali or Valverde in climbing and attacks. QS will have a solid team around Alaphilippe.

QS are in a strange place because they'll either way so they might as well just decide to go for broke. Ala ain't beating Bala on the Mur even if Bala was raced on one Leg.

 

[Red Rick]

Attacking before the Mur in Fleche is just a waste of time.

 

[Eli]

Yh the route needs tweaking. It's basically similar to a GT Flat stage nowadays.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Attacking before the Mur in Fleche is just a waste of time.

I'm not so sure those attacks have come closer and closer to succeeding over the last few years. I don't know if this is the year but I have the feeling we'll get an early attack upset in fleche in the next few years

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Attacking before the Mur in Fleche is just a waste of time.

I'm not so sure those attacks have come closer and closer to succeeding over the last few years. I don't know if this is the year but I have the feeling we'll get an early attack upset in fleche in the next few years

They get to like 500m which is like a minute down and that's without a deliberate chase.

 

[Sestriere]

Re: Re:

Attacking before the Mur in Fleche is just a waste of time.

I'm not so sure those attacks have come closer and closer to succeeding over the last few years. I don't know if this is the year but I have the feeling we'll get an early attack upset in fleche in the next few years

They get to like 500m which is like a minute down and that's without a deliberate chase.

If Jungels had had an equally strong companion last year he could've made it all the way, I think. Speculative, of course, as we don't know how the reaction from the favourites would've been in that case.

 

[El Pistolero]

https://nos.nl/tour/artikel/2180819-heeft-astana-niet-stiekem-de-tourfavorieten.html

I found this hilarious interview with Fuglsang, boy that guy is a real Calimero.

It's in Dutch but he's saying Nibali often spoiled the party for him (he claims he could've taken the yellow jersey in the stage to Arenberg and the pink jersey in the Giro but Nibali attacked and Dumoulin responded).

If he was a better bike rider he could've indeed taken the yellow and pink jersey, but instead he blaims others for his failures.

 

[movingtarget]

Nibali did about as well as expected.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

https://nos.nl/tour/artikel/2180819-heeft-astana-niet-stiekem-de-tourfavorieten.html

I found this hilarious interview with Fuglsang, boy that guy is a real Calimero.

It's in Dutch but he's saying Nibali often spoiled the party for him (he claims he could've taken the yellow jersey in the stage to Arenberg and the pink jersey in the Giro but Nibali attacked and Dumoulin responded).

If he was a better bike rider he could've indeed taken the yellow and pink jersey, but instead he blaims others for his failures.

Vincenzo realised that going for Vincenzo is invariably better for Team Astana than going for Fuglsang

 

[Blanco]

I rewatched 2012 Liege, and Nibali has to do exactly what he did in that edition in order to have a chance to win. He needs to be even stronger than back then, and to hope that Valverde won't be stronger than Gilbert was. And of course to pray there's no some Iglinsky in the field

 

[Netserk]

Nibali can win from Saint-Nicolas, as long as it isn't from a 40-men big group.

https://nos.nl/tour/artikel/2180819-heeft-astana-niet-stiekem-de-tourfavorieten.html

I found this hilarious interview with Fuglsang, boy that guy is a real Calimero.

It's in Dutch but he's saying Nibali often spoiled the party for him (he claims he could've taken the yellow jersey in the stage to Arenberg and the pink jersey in the Giro but Nibali attacked and Dumoulin responded).

If he was a better bike rider he could've indeed taken the yellow and pink jersey, but instead he blaims others for his failures.

Yet somehow, everyone goes crazy when I point this out.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

Nibali can win from Saint-Nicolas, as long as it isn't from a 40-men big group.

Only if it is a very small group, and the race before St.Nicholas was very hard, otherwise I don't think so.