Vuelta 2014 route rumours

[Taxus4a]

Last year, you had a stage with San Lorenzo, Cobertoria and Pajares/Cuitu Negru. How many people hit the bottom of the last climb? Some 40 guys.

In current cycling, way more climbs doesn't mean more/more attractive racing. Sadly enough

I talk about that two post before... it is not so long to read...I am not going to repeat.

 

[Arredondo]

I talk about that two post before... it is not so long to read...I am not going to repeat.

It doesn't matter if there are 1/2 climbs more in the stage. It will make the stage a little bit more difficult, but the GC men will wait till Farrapona to attack without doubt, with or without Cobertoria. How many longe range attacks did you see in the Vuelta the past 2/3 years? Not much i think. The stage to Bola del Mundo 2010 for example, was fantastic, but only on the last 2 k of the Navacerrada and La Bola, while there were 3/4 climbs before that.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I guess stage 17 to be the Worlds course in Ponferrada then four stages in Galicia to finish then?

Wish they'd do Fonte da Cova rather than cloning recent stories though. They wouldn't dare to put the Trobaniello side of Ventana in between Cobertoria and San Lorenzo, but that would guarantee fewer than 50 together at the base of La Farrapona! I also assume the southwest face of Maravio is too dangerous to descend, giving us no real option between Cobertoria and San Lorenzo. I wish they'd use western Asturias a bit more. La Bobia and Bustantiego could make great stages. But I guess apart from Cangas del Narcea there aren't too many stage-host sized towns around there.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

It doesn't matter if there are 1/2 climbs more in the stage. It will make the stage a little bit more difficult, but the GC men will wait till Farrapona to attack without doubt, with or without Cobertoria. How many longe range attacks did you see in the Vuelta the past 2/3 years? Not much i think. The stage to Bola del Mundo 2010 for example, was fantastic, but only on the last 2 k of the Navacerrada and La Bola, while there were 3/4 climbs before that.

The point, therefore, of the earlier climbs, is to ensure that the legs are more tired, so that when they get to the final climb there are fewer domestiques so the leaders must go mano a mano for longer. With a one-climb stage, the gaps are often very small because the helpers are fresh enough to pull back the attacks and make the pace for their leaders until very late in the stage, unless the climb is stupendously steep like an Angliru or Zoncolan where drafting becomes almost an irrelevance. Making a multi-climb stage finish on a such climb is often a waste of mountains because everybody wilfully soft-pedals the others because of fear of the big monolithic one (and this also creates conservative racing in other stages prior to it too). When the final climb is not a brute in terms of steepness, it thus makes sense to have several earlier climbs in a bid to move away from attrition and draw early attacks. Now, sometimes it will still fail. But there is one positive I can draw from the route design this year.

In 2009, Sierra de la Pandera was the steepest final climb of a mountain trifecta. Sierra Nevada via El Purche and Collado de las Sabinas was in the middle. Fear of the extremely steep final eight kilometres of Pandera in what was effectively a one-climb stage led to more conservative racing in the much better-designed multi-climb stages to Velefique and the much more tortuous Sierra Nevada climb by a new, tougher side than usual. The 2011 Vuelta's stage to La Farrapona gets criticised for the conservative racing, but we must remember that it came the day before Angliru, and a lot of the race's major names were afraid of paying for their efforts a day later, because of the amount of time that can be lost in a short space of time on such a steep climb. Also worth remembering is the level of underperformance from a whole host of race favourites and expected animators of the race in the mountains in 2011 - Nibali, Rodríguez, Scarponi and Antón all were far below expectations.

2010 is perhaps the logical comparison to make, and coincidentally it provided better racing too. The mountain triple-header was paced correctly, as instead of having the most brutal MTF at the end of its penultimate weekend extravaganza like 2009 and 2011, it had the most brutal cumulative climbing stage at the end, a much more sound piece of planning. They opened with Peña Cabarga, which is realistically only medium mountain, but is steep enough to guarantee gaps being opened (in 2011 of course it more or less represented the last chance of deposing Cobo). The middle stage was to Lagos de Covadonga, as it will be in 2014. This climb is often disappointing nowadays, as it's hard to put many warmup climbs close to (Mirador del Fito and Collada Llomena are the best connected, and are still some way from the base) and the break often takes it. However, it was the toughest final climb of the three, and so moves were made to try to take advantage of this; however, while the very steep final kilometres of Peña Cabarga may suit a puncheur or a real featherweight, Lagos de Covadonga is more consistent, its steepest gradients are far from the finish and its up-and-down closing stages being among its least threatening parts means that it is a wholly different style of climbing than Peña Cabarga (or Camperona), which is short enough to be able to muscle over in some ways. As a result the gaps were in place ahead of the stage to Cotobello, which featured the hardest cumulative climbing. Fränk Schleck had a minor exploratory attack on La Cobertoria, and then a more sustained attack on Cotobello early on, plus the cumulative effect of the previous two days hurt a lot of riders resulting in few helpers towards the end (iirc only Nibali and Mosquera had helpers - Kreuziger and David García - after a couple of km of Cotobello) and big names dropping away early (Sastre and Tondó doing their usual ride-as-if-nobody-else-is-there pattern). Admittedly a lot of the intrigue was helped by Antón's tragic crash in the Peña Cabarga stage leading to the exciting Euskaltel mountain TTT on Cobertoria as they sought to use Txurruka and Verdugo to pull Nieve across to the front group to attack for the win (bearing in mind at the time Nieve was barely heralded at all).

But over those three stages, the GC was shaped in a much more interesting fashion than in the preceding year or the following year. And I see certain parallels in the 2014 prospective mountain trifecta. Camperona is going to be more of a one-climb stage than Peña Cabarga, but then Camperona is also significantly tougher, and so that should counteract it. It will guarantee time gaps simply because drafting will be meaningless. Hopefully approaching from the north will enable us to have a couple of lead-in climbs to Cobertoria, probably Llomena and Moandi then 30k of flat or so. Then the Farrapona stage will likely be through Cobertoria and San Lorenzo. San Lorenzo and La Farrapona are much better linked than Cobertoria and Cotobello, and with the preceding two days (especially if they muscle up the Covadonga stage, which was literally totally flat until the final MTF in 2010) this should hopefully entice teams wanting to put the pressure on to make the pace high enough to cause many riders to crack earlier on. I don't know if you recall, but Chris Froome actually dropped time on San Lorenzo in 2011 and came back to the group; this happened a couple of times in the race actually, he'd get dropped early on in the day but when showtime came he was not just recovered but the strongest. But if somebody cracks hard early here, they could lose a packet. Add La Collaona, La Mozqueta or La Colladiella earlier on for good measure (or Cuchu Puercu-Viapará-Cruz de Linares N-San Lorenzo if you want), and you will probably not create action before La Farrapona unless the weather is either abysmally bad or oppressively hot... but you will turn La Farrapona into an absolute beast of a climb.

Also, La Cubilla > Cuitu Negru, La Farrapona or Lagos de Covadonga. Gamoniteiru, well, we'll have to talk.

 

[Taxus4a]

It doesn't matter if there are 1/2 climbs more in the stage. It will make the stage a little bit more difficult, but the GC men will wait till Farrapona to attack without doubt, with or without Cobertoria. How many longe range attacks did you see in the Vuelta the past 2/3 years? Not much i think. The stage to Bola del Mundo 2010 for example, was fantastic, but only on the last 2 k of the Navacerrada and La Bola, while there were 3/4 climbs before that.

It is impossible to think about any strategy from far in a stage like Cuitu Negru becouse the last climb is clearli the hardest and the last 3 kms are very steep, and there are 20 flat kms before last climb.

Mikel Landa set a hight pace in Cobertoria, but was quite usseles.

But that is not the same stage than Cobertoria, S Lorenzo and Farrapona.

Anyway, despite the people that get together the foot of the last climb, the fatigue is not the same...and the result can change.

What happens in a stage depend more on the race situation and the strenth or the riders, than the course, but the climbers with endurance, need a stage like this for it is needed...put Quintana in this stage in his best with two minutes form the leader and a team strong enough, and you will see...

(Libertine explained very well in the previous post)

 

[Arredondo]

The point, therefore, of the earlier climbs, is to ensure that the legs are more tired, so that when they get to the final climb there are fewer domestiques so the leaders must go mano a mano for longer. With a one-climb stage, the gaps are often very small because the helpers are fresh enough to pull back the attacks and make the pace for their leaders until very late in the stage, unless the climb is stupendously steep like an Angliru or Zoncolan where drafting becomes almost an irrelevance.

I'm absolutely agree with that, but that was not the point i was trying to make. Putting more climbs in a stage is a plus, because the riders who have the more endurance and can handle more climbs in a short distance, are in the better position. With more climbs before a mountain top finish, you will have more GC riders already strangle out, so you get more time gaps.

But my point was, that in these times, there aren't really longe range distance attacks anymore with 2/3 GC guys. Look at racing back in 2006/2007. Then you had stages where favorites tried to attack from the first or even second last climb of the day. Or even from the bottom of the last climb. Remember 2007 Tour to La Toussuire, where Moreau start the fight with 15 k to go, or look at the stage to Granada in 2006/2007, where the group of favorites already shattered on the first ropes of the Monachil. That kind of racing had become lesser, because the favorites are not capable to attack for 10/12 times, and from lets say 40 k out. Saving your energy is the new religion in current cycling. Look at even Contador, the rider who dared to attack from far out before his suspension. The current Contador even wait till 6/7 k from the finish.

So what i'm trying to say, is that more climbs doesn't mean more longe-range attacks, but it does mean more tired riders at the foot of the final climb, and less domestiques in the finale. I'm agreeing 100% with that.

I don't know if this is bullock, but does the transformation to steeper and harder climbs delivers more boring racing? Every GC rider doesn't dare to attack anymore from far out, because what has to come (4/5 k at 14% for example). I really like to see stages like Granada 2006/2007 old style. Just the Monachil, a really tough climb, and a nice descent to finish it off. I'm convinced that you will have more minutes of action than the routes there now building.

The Tour perhaps is a exception, if you look at the stages in the Alps the past years, or this year the stage to Bagneres. There you see full out racing in the first 50 k, because they have to tackle a climb like Madeleine or Peyresourde in the beginning. But even then, when te easier k's arrive, the favourites will start to saving energies again, afraid for what's coming.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The Tour is all "watch the first bit, for the attacks, then once the break's established, tune out til near the end". I don't know if the transition to steeper MTFs (and more MTFs) is the cause of the more conservative racing (i.e. because more time is there to be won and lost in the final climb so there is more fear of paying for earlier effort) or a product of it (i.e. because racing is more conservative, they need to produce steeper, more painful final climbs in order to ensure that time gaps are being opened, since on more regular, lighter climbs, the riders are staying in formation longer and at its logical conclusion, giving us garbage like the 2009 Tour de Suisse). Other things to blame would be the increased level of professionalism in the péloton (the gap in ability between the best and worst rider has narrowed massively so there are more domestiques of high enough quality to control the race more tightly than in years gone by) and also the UCI's points system, as the rewarding of fairly anonymous riding for GC position over jersey wearing and enlivening the race encourages riders not to take big risks. Here I use the Pau stage of the 2010 Tour as a perfect example, because for the last 50k Garmin hammered the pace on the front. Why? Because Chris Horner and Rubén Plaza were in the break, were very close to each other on GC, and the time gap would have pushed Ryder Hesjedal out of 10th place. 10th! In the old days, you'd take your licks then Ryder would have attacked the next day to take that time back (in the end he did and then some), because 10th place is comparatively worthless against a stage win; also more people placed 6th to 10th would take risks to try to jump up on to the podium than now, because the fear of losing that good GC position harms their willingness to attack.

 

[Arredondo]

The Tour is all "watch the first bit, for the attacks, then once the break's established, tune out til near the end". I don't know if the transition to steeper MTFs (and more MTFs) is the cause of the more conservative racing (i.e. because more time is there to be won and lost in the final climb so there is more fear of paying for earlier effort) or a product of it (i.e. because racing is more conservative, they need to produce steeper, more painful final climbs in order to ensure that time gaps are being opened, since on more regular, lighter climbs, the riders are staying in formation longer and at its logical conclusion, giving us garbage like the 2009 Tour de Suisse). Other things to blame would be the increased level of professionalism in the péloton (the gap in ability between the best and worst rider has narrowed massively so there are more domestiques of high enough quality to control the race more tightly than in years gone by) and also the UCI's points system, as the rewarding of fairly anonymous riding for GC position over jersey wearing and enlivening the race encourages riders not to take big risks. Here I use the Pau stage of the 2010 Tour as a perfect example, because for the last 50k Garmin hammered the pace on the front. Why? Because Chris Horner and Rubén Plaza were in the break, were very close to each other on GC, and the time gap would have pushed Ryder Hesjedal out of 10th place. 10th! In the old days, you'd take your licks then Ryder would have attacked the next day to take that time back (in the end he did and then some), because 10th place is comparatively worthless against a stage win; also more people placed 6th to 10th would take risks to try to jump up on to the podium than now, because the fear of losing that good GC position harms their willingness to attack.

Definitely the points system is a big problem. Nowadays, a 10th place is more worth than dye in fashion and become 13th, but after showing some proper racing balls.

But perhaps we have to take it positively. A possible (small) reason is because of something that is destined for the clinic topic (you know where i'm going ), has become les, and therefore riders can't do attacks like Ricco (how wonderfull was that though) anymore.

 

[greenedge]

Saving your energy is the new religion in current cycling. Look at even Contador, the rider who dared to attack from far out before his suspension. The current Contador even wait till 6/7 k from the finish.

Fuente De and Alpe D Huez

 

[Netserk]

But my point was, that in these times, there aren't really longe range distance attacks anymore with 2/3 GC guys. Look at racing back in 2006/2007. Then you had stages where favorites tried to attack from the first or even second last climb of the day. Or even from the bottom of the last climb. Remember 2007 Tour to La Toussuire, where Moreau start the fight with 15 k to go, or look at the stage to Granada in 2006/2007, where the group of favorites already shattered on the first ropes of the Monachil. That kind of racing had become lesser, because the favorites are not capable to attack for 10/12 times, and from lets say 40 k out. Saving your energy is the new religion in current cycling. Look at even Contador, the rider who dared to attack from far out before his suspension. The current Contador even wait till 6/7 k from the finish.

100+ km of ITT and real mountain stages.

 

[Arredondo]

Fuente De and Alpe D Huez

Alpe d'Huez wasn't the current Contador, that was before his suspension. Fuente De indeed is a exception, but that's why i'm mentioning Contador. He's the only one who dare to do a attack like that.

 

[Arredondo]

100+ km of ITT and real mountain stages.

Perhaps that's the reason. Back then the stages were indeed splendid.

 

[Taxus4a]

Alpe d'Huez wasn't the current Contador, that was before his suspension. Fuente De indeed is a exception, but that's why i'm mentioning Contador. He's the only one who dare to do a attack like that.

Both cases was a desperate try anyway.
Quintana attached this year in Pailheres.
Valverde attacked with Plaza next day 100 kms before the finish line.
De Gengt attacked in the Giro in the Mortirolo with Stelvio remaining.
Of course Andy attacked in Izoard with a long windy flat and Galibier remaining.
Evans attacked far away in Tour 2012... without legs, with a virus, TVG were stronger, but he attacked.
Nibali attacked in that hard Giro stage tat Nieve won, Gardeccia.
Pelizotti atacked this Giro year in the fort climb the day Urán won.
...
I just talk about GT, not examples as Dan Martin in Volta Catalunya. and I dont talk about try of breakaways in the start, that lot of times involved people od the GC.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

On Rifugio Gardeccia, it was Purito and Arroyo that initiated hostilities by attacking on the Giau with 65km remaining. Nibali then attacked on the descent.

 

[Arredondo]

On Rifugio Gardeccia, it was Purito and Arroyo that initiated hostilities by attacking on the Giau with 65km remaining. Nibali then attacked on the descent.

That Giro was sick because of the early attacking, but that was part due guys like Contador and Rujano, and Purito was way back in GC (9th or something like that). It would be useluss for him not to attack and wait, because he arrived at his top form just at Sestriere.

 

[Arredondo]

Both cases was a desperate try anyway.
Quintana attached this year in Pailheres.
Valverde attacked with Plaza next day 100 kms before the finish line.
De Gengt attacked in the Giro in the Mortirolo with Stelvio remaining.
Of course Andy attacked in Izoard with a long windy flat and Galibier remaining.
Evans attacked far away in Tour 2012... without legs, with a virus, TVG were stronger, but he attacked.
Nibali attacked in that hard Giro stage tat Nieve won, Gardeccia.
Pelizotti atacked this Giro year in the fort climb the day Urán won.
...
I just talk about GT, not examples as Dan Martin in Volta Catalunya. and I dont talk about try of breakaways in the start, that lot of times involved people od the GC.

Quintana wasn't a real threat in GC back then, and it was the first mountain stage. After the attack of Plaza and Valverde, everything came back because there was too much flat k left (and a decent of 30 k after the last climb).

De Gendt was a nice example, but wasn't considered as a serious GC treat at all. I'm more talking about a race like Saint-Lary-Soulan at the Tour 2005, were Ullrich and Basso, the main rivals of Armstrong (if he had rivals at all though) start attacking on the Paihlleres already. That kind of racing isn't anymore.

Andy Schleck's attack on the Izoard is the only exception. But that was in 2011, look likes something happened after that.

And Pelizotti a GC-rival this year? For 10th place indeed, but to call that a real GC-attack?

But i'll get your point, it's not my goal to whin, just to give a bigger picture from my point of view

 

[veji11]

As previously said, several issues are playing that make it less and less likely to see attacks from afar :
- a more homogeneous peloton, with Domestiques that are proportionaly so much better than in the past an can therefore better control the race.
- an impoverished tactical acumen from most of the today pros, who are not used to racing without radio contact, have a very poor tactical culture : cue no one else accompanying Voeckler in the Lombardia when it was obvious that this was the right move if you weren't one of the 2/3 strongest of the day... riders just don't think.
- UCI point system that encourages riders to go for places. Except his failure at the tour, a thibaut Pinot can be very happy with his places 8 in Catalunya, 4 in Switzerland, 7 in la Vuelt and 10/15 (don't remember) in Lombardia. All this without a single victory...

Looking for solutions organisers have gone with what they can control : the route. ASO or RCS don't have the power alone to forbid radios or to decide that GT teams consist now of 7 riders, not 9, for example.

So they have gone for steeper and steeper climbs and MTFs' fest to try to get a selection. Less so in the tour where the logistical constraints are so much bigger because of the massive media caravan, but in Giro or Vuelta you get know 3 meters large moutain tracks of 20% gradient to try to make something, anything, happen.

I can understand it but I think this should not be overdone.

For me rather than the route, key changes should be :
- less riders per team, make it less controlable by the domestiques so that the leaders have to get going earlier on. Particularly for GTs. A team of 7 means that if you are Sky you have to let some breakaway go, you can't control everything, if you try it will blow up to your face quickly...
- absolute and terminal radio ban. The whole concept of the cycling race is that you have individual riders, their team, and this mysterious entity with its own life, the peloton. Put that back at the center of the race : make the riders think, question the situation, hesitate, panic, etc... no more Froome talking to Dave to monitor if Contador is following or dropping, he will have to look him in the eye to check. No more Froome talking to Dave to say "i need sugar !!" on the Alpe, he will have to make do without oreillettes, and if god forbid because of that Porte had already slowed down because he didn't know Froome might need him, you might have 3 very very long kms for a sugar starved Froome, etc...
- Change the UCI point system so that it has an quasi geometric scale, not a an arithmetic one like currently.. for example :
1/the winner of the tour should get 500 points, the second 300, the third 200, the fourth 110, the fifth 80, the sixth 40, then 7th 35, 8th 30, 9th 25, 10th 20, 11th 10, 12th 8, 13th 6, 14th 4 and 15th 2.
2/ Add to this 20 points for a stage win, 8 for second and 3 for third.
3/ distinctive jerseys in the tour : Polka and White jersey give you 20/8/3 just like for stages, green jersey either same or nothing because it is directly correlated with stage wins (ie a sprinter that wins it will already score many points), it is arguable.
4/ team ranking : 20/8/3.

This is all very arguable of course, but i would make it a lot more worthwhile for a rider standing 12th in the GC standings to go on the offensive from afar, either for a stage win or to make up lots of time and get back up on the ladder, than to stay put like he does now.

Apply a similar type of ranking to all races, make it a very steep descending scale : Winning bring boatloads of points, podium lots, top 5 ok, Top 10 a tiny wee bit. That way for teams trying to win becomes the overriding priority. better to win 2 races and do 2 top10s in 20 races than to do 8 top5s and 8 top10s !

 

[barmaher]

I agree with your points for GC placings.

But stage results should go further down than 3rd.

I would go 25-10-5-3-2-1 for the top 6.

A lot of the points made above make for very interesting reading, by the way. However, I sometimes think that you guys watch different racing to me. I found the first part of the season very exciting, and the Tour and Vuelta were both good. The Ronde, Giro and WC RR were the only truly disappointing races this season. I don't think too much needs to change. Other than the horrible RVV course!!!!!

 

[Arredondo]

I agree with your points for GC placings.

But stage results should go further down than 3rd.

I would go 25-10-5-3-2-1 for the top 6.

A lot of the points made above make for very interesting reading, by the way. However, I sometimes think that you guys watch different racing to me. I found the first part of the season very exciting, and the Tour and Vuelta were both good. The Ronde, Giro and WC RR were the only truly disappointing races this season. I don't think too much needs to change. Other than the horrible RVV course!!!!!

I agree with you that the Tour and Vuelta were really nice to watch. I am satisfied with the fact that we see nice action in the finale. The racing from 10 years ago is out of reach, so i enjoy the races how there are at the moment.

 

[icefire]

Last rumours:

http://ciclismo.as.com/ciclismo/2013/11/29/vuelta_espana/1385686198_933107.html

General course: Andalucía, Castilla-La Mancha, Aragón, La Rioja, Cantabria, Castilla y León, Asturias and Galicia. No Pyrenees.
Only 8 or 9 MTF. Still not decided if Ancares (Pan do Zarco side) will be MTF or they'll finish after the descent.
At least 2 new MTFs. One of them we already know (Camperona), the other one is still unknown.
Last stage in Santiago is a TT.

 

[icefire]

http://www.ciclo21.com/la-vuelta-espana-2014-repetira-por-malaga/

The province of Málaga will host two stages. Ronda is confirmed as the finish of a stage starting in Córdoba.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

That's probably a puncheur type finish then, though not an especially steep one. Maybe they'll go through the awesome Setenil de las Bodegas a few km from the finish, that would give them a cat.3 climb only a few km out with probably another one up to the stage finish, which would be nice.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

That's probably a puncheur type finish then, though not an especially steep one. Maybe they'll go through the awesome Setenil de las Bodegas a few km from the finish, that would give them a cat.3 climb only a few km out with probably another one up to the stage finish, which would be nice.

Unbelievable.

Make it happen please.

 

[icefire]

Is that the Hard Rock Café?

 

[jens_attacks]

talk about bad photoshopping...