Vuelta 2017, Stage 5: Benicassin-Ermita Santa Lucia,175.7 km

[klintE]

Degenkolb FTW

 

[Velolover2]

Too hard for Alaphalippe.

The stage was designed to Valverde, but now that he isn't here - it's Froome vs. Chaves. The rest aren't explosive enough to win it.

Maybe Woods can surprise a bit.

 

[Bye Bye Bicycle]

The Vines FTW

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P57REvZ0I3E

 

[Sestriere]

Re:

Degenkolb FTW

DNS due to bronchitis, I'm afraid.

 

[klintE]

Re: Re:

Degenkolb FTW

DNS due to bronchitis, I'm afraid.

Thanks for the information. In fact, I was wondering what is he actually doing here.

So stage 5 for the break. De Gent or Carapaz FTW ;

 

[portugal11]

Re:

Too hard for Alaphalippe.

The stage was designed to Valverde, but now that he isn't here - it's Froome vs. Chaves. The rest aren't explosive enough to win it.

Maybe Woods can surprise a bit.

This type of climbs isn't ideal for valverde. It is too steep, this murito is for purito who would win with one leg.

 

[pink_jersey]

Jaca 2012 reloaded. Froome to destroy everyone bar Chaves who will win the stage Purito-style. Nibali to be Contador and lose 15 seconds.

 

[Krokro]

Re: Re:

Too hard for Alaphalippe.

The stage was designed to Valverde, but now that he isn't here - it's Froome vs. Chaves. The rest aren't explosive enough to win it.

Maybe Woods can surprise a bit.

This type of climbs isn't ideal for valverde. It is too steep, this murito is for purito who would win with one leg.

Valverde and "too steep" in the same sentence doesn't properly match!

 

[sir fly]

Not sure about the chances of a breakaway considering the GC shaping and the bonis.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

Alaphalippe or Bardet for me.

If the climb is raced properly, Alaphilippe have no business there, especially cause his climbing legs aren't good enough atm. I think Pozzo and Yates bros will try earlier on the climb, with Chaves and Bardet waiting for the final. Michael Woods could do well here.

 

[Laplaz]

For Nibali it would be good if the break could stay clear, for Froome and Chaves of course not.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Re:

Anyone know the eta?

17:40 according to cyclingstage.

Chaves will win todays stage, Froome and Aru best of the rest.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I think the break will take this, Chaves to be the strongest of the favourites. Could imagine Nibali will lose a bit time today.

 

[axl]

I think a breakaway win is possible. Only the guys that feel they can win and take the bonifs have a incentive to catch them. So, i think Froome, Chaves, Bardet and Aru. Froome may be affraid of Chaves, and does not want to give him the victory on a plate. I don't think Aru and Bardet feel strong enough to beat those 2 and make their team work.
Otherwise, guys like Rui Costa and Woods may think they have a chance and make UAE and cannondale work.

And there many KOM points to win today (18) so strong climbers could go there. Fraile and I maybe Pantano should try, they are far back in GC.
EDIT : alaphilippe too, it could be an easy win from the break for him.

 

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

Too hard for Alaphalippe.

The stage was designed to Valverde, but now that he isn't here - it's Froome vs. Chaves. The rest aren't explosive enough to win it.

Maybe Woods can surprise a bit.

This type of climbs isn't ideal for valverde. It is too steep, this murito is for purito who would win with one leg.

Not a fair comparison. Peak Purito was one of the best riders, if not the best in history, on these sorts of climbs.

Valverde is still one of the best on this type of climb. And has always been.

Contador used to be a top 3 rider on those as well.

Now that they are "gone", Froome should be the best with Chaves as his main challenger. The Yates bros are also really good on longer murs.

 

[pink_jersey]

Re: Re:

Too hard for Alaphalippe.

The stage was designed to Valverde, but now that he isn't here - it's Froome vs. Chaves. The rest aren't explosive enough to win it.

Maybe Woods can surprise a bit.

This type of climbs isn't ideal for valverde. It is too steep, this murito is for purito who would win with one leg.

Not a fair comparison. Peak Purito was one of the best riders, if not the best in history, on these sorts of climbs.

Valverde is still one of the best on this type of climb. And has always been.

Contador used to be a top 3 rider on those as well.

Now that they are "gone", Froome should be the best with Chaves as his main challenger. The Yates bros are also really good on longer murs.

Purito was really superior to Valverde on Murito's only in 2012 when Valverde just came back after suspension. In 2013, both didn't have the best preparation for Fleche and LBL, and in Vuelta Purito only beat him on Naranco if I remember. Than in 2014, he destroyed'em all on that climb early in Vuelta where he set the pace for more 2km.
Don't get me wrong, I think Purito is better than Valverde on a Ezaro or Cumbre del Sol climb but by not much.
Purito legacy is exarcebated by his wins in Fleche 2012, Vuelta(2012) and his results in races where he didn't face Valverde(especially Pais Vasco).

 

[Velolover2]

Yeah, I was trying to make that point.

Valverde is one of the best in the world on those kind of climbs. One of the best in history.

The fact that he is more versatile (able to win 6% climbs at 1k and flat sprints) than Purito doesn't make him worse on very steep muros.

 

[Bolder]

Re:

For Nibali it would be good if the break could stay clear, for Froome and Chaves of course not.

Just curious -- why do you think that? My read is that a breakaway up the road would be good or neutral for Froome/Chavez.

Not sure how it would affect their tactics, as they are racing amongst themselves either way. The only thing I can see is that teams with a rider in the break don't have to work as hard, but I can't imagine Sky would let Bahrain or Orica get in the break.

 

[bambino]

Re: Re:

For Nibali it would be good if the break could stay clear, for Froome and Chaves of course not.

Just curious -- why do you think that? My read is that a breakaway up the road would be good or neutral for Froome/Chavez.

Not sure how it would affect their tactics, as they are racing amongst themselves either way. The only thing I can see is that teams with a rider in the break don't have to work as hard, but I can't imagine Sky would let Bahrain or Orica get in the break.

No bonus seconds for GC guys if break stays away. That would be the benefit for Nibs.

 

[topcat]

Re: Re:

For Nibali it would be good if the break could stay clear, for Froome and Chaves of course not.

Just curious -- why do you think that? My read is that a breakaway up the road would be good or neutral for Froome/Chavez.

Not sure how it would affect their tactics, as they are racing amongst themselves either way. The only thing I can see is that teams with a rider in the break don't have to work as hard, but I can't imagine Sky would let Bahrain or Orica get in the break.

No bonus seconds for GC guys if break stays away. That would be the benefit for Nibs.

Nibali to win the stage

 

[Krokro]

Julian Alaphilippe (Quick Step), Marc Soler (Movistar Team), Davide Villella (Cannondale-Drapac), Marco Haller (Katusha-Alpecin), Jérémy Maison (FDJ), Merhawi Kudus (Dimension Data), Lluis Mas (Caja Rural-Seguros RGA), Michel Kreder (Aqua Blue Sport) and Jetse Bol (Manzana-Postobón)

Edit: 20" ahead on a second group of 7 riders. 1'10" on the bunch. Nice names on it, not sure they will have the permission of the bunch.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Too hard for Alaphalippe.

The stage was designed to Valverde, but now that he isn't here - it's Froome vs. Chaves. The rest aren't explosive enough to win it.

Maybe Woods can surprise a bit.

This type of climbs isn't ideal for valverde. It is too steep, this murito is for purito who would win with one leg.

Not a fair comparison. Peak Purito was one of the best riders, if not the best in history, on these sorts of climbs.

Valverde is still one of the best on this type of climb. And has always been.

Contador used to be a top 3 rider on those as well.

Now that they are "gone", Froome should be the best with Chaves as his main challenger. The Yates bros are also really good on longer murs.

Purito was really superior to Valverde on Murito's only in 2012 when Valverde just came back after suspension. In 2013, both didn't have the best preparation for Fleche and LBL, and in Vuelta Purito only beat him on Naranco if I remember. Than in 2014, he destroyed'em all on that climb early in Vuelta where he set the pace for more 2km.
Don't get me wrong, I think Purito is better than Valverde on a Ezaro or Cumbre del Sol climb but by not much.
Purito legacy is exarcebated by his wins in Fleche 2012, Vuelta(2012) and his results in races where he didn't face Valverde(especially Pais Vasco).

Valverde was never that good on muritos. Hence why they are called muritos, and not a moniker related to Bala (mur de huy is a low level murito)

 

[portugal11]

I think that even post ban contador (until 2015) is better than valverde on muritos (muritos with 2-4 km at 15% or more, it is just to clarify). A pre ban contador was insane in this type of climbs. For me valverde is the best in climbs like we normally see in la doyenne

 

[bambino]

Re:

Julian Alaphilippe (Quick Step), Marc Soler (Movistar Team), Davide Villella (Cannondale-Drapac), Marco Haller (Katusha-Alpecin), Jérémy Maison (FDJ), Merhawi Kudus (Dimension Data), Lluis Mas (Caja Rural-Seguros RGA), Michel Kreder (Aqua Blue Sport) and Jetse Bol (Manzana-Postobón)

Edit: 20" ahead on a second group of 7 riders. 1'10" on the bunch. Nice names on it, not sure they will have the permission of the bunch.

Bol seems to be the highest in GC from that group close to 5 minutes back. I don't think Sky is too bothered about these names. Let's see who is on that other group though.

 

[portugal11]

Poels is my outsider for today.