Vuelta a España - Stage 17 - Peñafiel individual time trial, 46 km

[The Hitch]

Vuelta a España - Stage 17 - Peñafiel individual time trial, 46 km

Warning: Tomorow is a rest day.This stage will occur on Wednesday


The showdown
THe battle for the stage win will be secondary. And that is a good thing. So many things to consider here. How much time will Rodriguez lose? How much time will Mosquera lose. How much time can Nibali gain. Can Frank Schleck enter the podium.
Saxobanks best tactic might be to tell Cancellara to go for it like if it was the world tt championships (preferably put a motor in side the specialised as well) and hope he can get Mosquera and Purito outside the time limit. Its a long shot but probably with better chances than Frank Schleck getting the podium outright

Official prediction: Nibali to get 2 and a half minutes on Mosquera and Purito. Cancellara isnt on form but who can challenge him. Millar? Menchov? Ill stick with Canc thank you very much

Profile and weather forecast:

 

[Descender]

Here is the parcours:

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[roundabout]

Cancellara all the way.

 

[The Hitch]

Here is the parcours:

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copy right violation

0km ..................................................................................................223.5km
rotterdam------------------------------------------------------------------------ brussels

should be sprint

+ you missed the speed ramp between 24.5 and 24.6 km

 

[icefire]

Riders start at 1 minute intervals. Last 20 will do it at 2 minutes intervals

Last rider will start at 16:45 CET

 

[khardung la]

Gustav Larsson to win for me.

 

[Descender]

copy right violation


+ you missed the speed ramp between 24.5 and 24.6 km

Fair enough, but I used _ and you used . and - .

 

[Descender]

Cancellara to win comfortably.

Favourites:

Schleck
Nibali at 27 seconds
Mosquera at 1:41
Purito at 2:13

 

[The Hitch]

Fair enough, but I used _ and you used . and - .

Yep _ is a better idea i agree.

 

[Sasquatch]

It will be a Larsson/Cancellara quinella.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

It probably doesn't tell us much, but having a look at the last two long time trials in the Tour:

2009:
Nibali: 1.41
Schleck: 1.47
Velits: 2.13
Roche: 2.37
Sastre: 2.52

2010:
Sastre: 6.30
Roche: 6.42
Rodriguez: 10:17

From that very small sample, and ignoring the fact that people might have been in poor form / not going full gas / had a mechanical or whatever, there doesn't really appear to be a vast amount between any of these guys. Except Rodriguez, who is either bad beyond belief at the ITT or wasn't bothering at all.

 

[The Hitch]

It probably doesn't tell us much, but having a look at the last two long time trials in the Tour:

2009:
Nibali: 1.41
Schleck: 1.47
Velits: 2.13
Roche: 2.37
Sastre: 2.52

2010:
Sastre: 6.30
Roche: 6.42
Rodriguez: 10:17

From that very small sample, and ignoring the fact that people might have been in poor form / not going full gas / had a mechanical or whatever, there doesn't really appear to be a vast amount between any of these guys. Except Rodriguez, who is either bad beyond belief at the ITT or wasn't bothering at all.

This does not include Mosquera. If Rodriguez is that bad tomorow then the Vuelta looks like between Don Vinnie and Mosquera. Mosqueras not that small so going by the "andy Schleck wont lose 2 mins this tour tt because hes not a tiny rider "logic, Mosquera should in theory be able to limit his losses to Nibali. In theory.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

This does not include Mosquera.

I know. I'll go dig out some Vuelta and Giro results to add a few more comparisons.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Vuelta:

2009 (only half the length of this year's one and the Tour TTs):

Rodriguez: 2.02
Mosquera: 2.52

The longest flat time trial in the Giro in the last couple of years was only 15km.

 

[indurain666]

2010:
Sastre: 6.30
Roche: 6.42
Rodriguez: 10:17

I don't think Purito did that one full on. Nevertheless, best case scenario he will lose 2 min to Nibali.

 

[Sophistic]

Vuelta:

2009 (only half the length of this year's one and the Tour TTs):

Rodriguez: 2.02
Mosquera: 2.52

The longest flat time trial in the Giro in the last couple of years was only 15km.

Mosquera had a bad day, in the first ITT he beat Rodriguez by a minute and also his other ITT performances in the last 3 years havent been that awful.

 

[lstomsl]

Tommy D.!

How many places will Tommy D. move up? I'm thinking 2, possibly 3 if he's on his A game and Frank Schleck isn't

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

The fact that the time trial is completely flat doesn't really help Mosquera and Rodriguez.
I wish they had made it more hilly and thus interesting

 

[Descender]

The fact that the time trial is completely flat doesn't really help Mosquera and Rodriguez.
I wish they had made it more hilly and thus interesting

There is only ONE flat time trial in the Vuelta (remember the days when GTs used to have at the very least two long TTs? no less than 100km?) and you want to make it hilly?? Aren't there enough hills already in the other 20 stages?

 

[indurain666]

There is only ONE flat time trial in the Vuelta (remember the days when GTs used to have at the very least two long TTs? no less than 100km?) and you want to make it hilly?? Aren't there enough hills already in the other 20 stages?

No (started watching cycling in the 90s), yes, no

 

[hrotha]

Oh come on, it's not like anyone is going to attack on those hills. Flat TTs are perfectly fine.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

No (started watching cycling in the 90s), yes, no

Coming from indurain666, that's pretty ironic.

 

[Descender]

No (started watching cycling in the 90s), yes, no

Those days are not that far away, buddy. Have a look at the 2007 Tour, for instance. It's just in recent years there's been this fashion of cutting off TTs, goodness knows why.

Indurain won what he won THANKS to those ITT 120km.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I don't think Purito did that one full on. Nevertheless, best case scenario he will lose 2 min to Nibali.

He was 7th in the Tour at the time, after 18 stages, and within spitting distance of 6th! If he wasn't really trying, I'd like to know what he thought he was saving himself for!

 

[indurain666]

Those days are not that far away, buddy. Have a look at the 2007 Tour, for instance. It's just in recent years there's been this fashion of cutting off TTs, goodness knows why.

Indurain won what he won THANKS to those ITT 120km.

I agree with that, I remember Eurodisneys TT in 97 was still like 60 km

Not fully agree with the last sentence, he TTs helped Indurain big time I agree, but don't forget Indurain had the ability to blow the race apart in the mountains whenever he wanted, as he did in La Plagne, Hautacam and Alpe D'Huez. Here are two examples:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhEKRjhLuds

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0en8OLXG8M

Anyways, I really hope purito has the ride of his life as this will keep the race interesting until Bola del Mundo, if he loses more than 2 min, game over.