Vuelta a España - Stage 17 - Peñafiel individual time trial, 46 km

[Climbing]

Nibali will try to get as much time as possible of course.
Even if he succedes, it will be very hard to defend anyway on Bola.
I think he was lucky today because the other guys were very tired too, or he could have lost big time.
Even more lucky he got a rest day before ITT.
All thing considered he has good chance for the overall.

 

[search]

He was 7th in the Tour at the time, after 18 stages, and with spitting distance of 6th! If he wasn't really trying, I'd like to know what he thought he was saving himself for!

of course, but you have to remember the circumstances with the wind that day and set the result in comparison to other riders which started at about the same time.
he lost ~4 minutes to Contador, ~3 minutes to Kreuziger, I think that's not that far away from his abilities in this discipline. What is quite worrying is, that he lost ~4 minutes to Roche as well

 

[El Pistolero]

Those days are not that far away, buddy. Have a look at the 2007 Tour, for instance. It's just in recent years there's been this fashion of cutting off TTs, goodness knows why.

Indurain won what he won THANKS to those ITT 120km.

Indurain was always up there with the best in the mountain stages. He just (almost) never went for the victory in the mountain finish.

I remember him beating Greg Lemond on a mountain stage once in his early days. The kid could climb, amazingly well.

Anyway, the less TT nowadays the better imo. I don't want to see someone like Cuddles or Leipheimer ever winning a GT just because they have a good TT and then wheelsuck up the mountains. Especially Leipheimer, at least Cuddles has done some amazing things on rare occasions(WC, Giro stage, FW). But face it, he has done 12 GTs so far with a lot of top 10s and only 2 GT stages he won. Something I hate about Contador as well to be honest. But the difference is, he's gifting a lot of stages away. A bit like Indurain, but less extreme.

 

[hfer07]

Anyway, the less TT nowadays the better imo. I don't want to see someone like Cuddles or Leipheimer ever winning a GT just because they have a good TT and then wheelsuck up the mountains. Especially Leipheimer, at least Cuddles has done some amazing things on rare occasions(WC, Giro stage, FW). But face it, he has done 12 GTs so far with a lot of top 10s and only 2 GT stages he won. Something I hate about Contador as well to be honest. But the difference is, he's gifting a lot of stages away. A bit like Indurain, but less extreme.

I agreed with that, but is also a duty for the Climbers to "improve" in the TT discipline, so they can maintain all the gains from the mountains intact until they meet the race against the clock. If you go back to history, there are many great Climbers that have stepped off the podium simply because of the lack of TT skills, and we might as well get a situation similar with Purito & Eze-which I would hate to happen if Schleck gets the best of them in wednesday's showdown.

 

[The Hitch]

I agree with that, I remember Eurodisneys TT in 97 was still like 60 km

Oh Oh!!!
Hold up.

They did a eurodisney tt? I always thought that would be a decent idea.
Do tell.

 

[kurtinsc]

I agree with that, I remember Eurodisneys TT in 97 was still like 60 km

Not fully agree with the last sentence, he TTs helped Indurain big time I agree, but don't forget Indurain had the ability to blow the race apart in the mountains whenever he wanted, as he did in La Plagne, Hautacam and Alpe D'Huez. Here are two examples:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhEKRjhLuds

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0en8OLXG8M

Anyways, I really hope purito has the ride of his life as this will keep the race interesting until Bola del Mundo, if he loses more than 2 min, game over.

While he had the ability to do that... he rarely did. For example, in 1992 he took 4 minutes and 3 minutes on Chiapucci in the two long TT's... and won by 4 and a half minutes overall. Those long TT's allowed him to give Chiapucci 3+ minutes in the mountains and have it not matter.

That's a BIG advantage.

 

[taiwan]

Liquigas know how to ride a GT. Nibali has done a great job so far, considering his advantage in the TTs. Barring a total collapse on Bola del Mundo on Saturday, he's looking pretty sweet for this race, I'd say.

 

[Descender]

Indurain was always up there with the best in the mountain stages. He just (almost) never went for the victory in the mountain finish.

I remember him beating Greg Lemond on a mountain stage once in his early days. The kid could climb, amazingly well.

Anyway, the less TT nowadays the better imo. I don't want to see someone like Cuddles or Leipheimer ever winning a GT just because they have a good TT and then wheelsuck up the mountains. Especially Leipheimer, at least Cuddles has done some amazing things on rare occasions(WC, Giro stage, FW). But face it, he has done 12 GTs so far with a lot of top 10s and only 2 GT stages he won. Something I hate about Contador as well to be honest. But the difference is, he's gifting a lot of stages away. A bit like Indurain, but less extreme.

I know about Indurain, I grew up watching him.

Completely disagree about the TT. A race must be balanced, it must give chances to riders who climb well, riders who descend well and those who ride well on the flat. GTs are NOT for climbers, they shouldn't be.

 

[hrotha]

I'm not sure Nibali can take that much time. Certainly he won't gain so much that he'll be in no danger in la Bola del Mundo. I think he'll take about 1:30-2:00.

 

[El Pistolero]

I know about Indurain, I grew up watching him.

Completely disagree about the TT. A race must be balanced, it must give chances to riders who climb well, riders who descend well and those who ride well on the flat. GTs are NOT for climbers, they shouldn't be.

One TT does the trick. You don't need 3 über long time trials...

 

[taiwan]

I'm not sure Nibali can take that much time. Certainly he won't gain so much that he'll be in no danger in la Bola del Mundo. I think he'll take about 1:30-2:00.

Hm, I don't know where Purito or Mosquera are going to conjure improved TT skills from, unless they were feeling a lot fresher than Nibali. I don't think this long, flat TT will be that kind to them.

 

[Benedict XVI]

Don't forget about "the magic power of wearing the leader's jersey". JR might kick some serious *** in TT thanks to it.

 

[The Hitch]

Don't forget about "the magic power of wearing the leader's jersey". JR might kick some serious *** in TT thanks to it.

But with purito it might work the other way seeing as it didnt help him much on the day he was in red before.

Also schleck found that if you just wear armbands that are the same colour it works as well.

 

[Zoncolan]

My ITT predictions:

Tommy D. moves into top 5, only to lose 5 minutes on Bola del Mundo.
LL Sanchez moves up to 8th overall and suffers the same fate as Tommy D.
Sastre overtakes Tondo.
Velits closes the gap to Roche, who finishes 5th in Madrid.

Nibali, Schleck, Mosquera, and Rodriguez all finish within 3-3:30 minutes of each other.

GC after the ITT:

1. Nibali 0:00
2. Rodriguez + 2:15
3. Schleck + 2:30
4. Mosquera + 3:15
5. Danielson + 3:25
6. Roche + 4:00
7. Velits + 4:20
8. Sastre + 4:50
9. LL Sanchez + 5:00
10. Tondo + 6:45

I hope I'm wrong with these. Either way, it's gonna take an almighty effort on Bola del Mundo for anyone to take the overall away from Nibali.

I was really hoping Eze could do it this year.

 

[turtlesoup]

kinda off topic but if frank does TT well and makes a podium, when was the last time 2 brother/family memebers made podiums in GTs in the same year?

 

[ingsve]

With Cancellara on questionable form and Larsson in good form (he's 21st overall, very good for a big guy like him) I think Larsson has his best possible chance to get a confidence boost in head to head against Cancellara before Worlds. I'm still not sure it will be enough to beat Cancellara but he has a better shot here than he has had before.

 

[theswordsman]

With Cancellara on questionable form and Larsson in good form (he's 21st overall, very good for a big guy like him) I think Larsson has his best possible chance to get a confidence boost in head to head against Cancellara before Worlds. I'm still not sure it will be enough to beat Cancellara but he has a better shot here than he has had before.

I agree about Cancellara. The Spanish press had him out parting several times during the Vuelta, and he's in 148th place, more than three hours back. I'm not sure he can get by on technique in this one.
Frank spent a lot of time working on his TT early in the year, so we'll see if that pays off.
I'm hoping for a strong showing from Nibali and Roche.

I wonder if Menchov has anything left in the tank?

 

[hrotha]

I don't know why you guys say Cancellara is not on form. He's been soft-pedalling the whole Vuelta, but he's been there when the team has needed him. Like today. He was 51st after having done his job, and I have no doubt that he could have been at that level in previous mountain stages if he had wanted to. I doubt his form is spectacular, but it doesn't need to be.

 

[joy118118]

Velits can do TT very well. maybe he will gain some time.

 

[royalpig180]

Cancellara for the stage (NEVER bet against the man in a flat TT)
Nibali to pick up 2 minutes on Rodriguez, 1 minute 30 on Mosquera.
He'll lose the time to both on the Bola del Mundo, finish 3rd.

 

[theswordsman]

Start order and times. Spartacus is 14th to go, so it won't take long to know if he put up a good one or not.

http://www.biciciclismo.com/cas/site/noticias-ficha.asp?id=30454

 

[Sasquatch]

1. Cancellara
2. Larsson
3. Zabriskie
4. Millar
5. Sanchez
6. Ignatiev
7. Danielson
8. Menchov
9. Bruseghin
10. Plaza

Something like that.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

So, what are the predictions for time to be lost to, or gained on, Nibali by those currently within 6 minutes of the lead (i.e. the top 9)

Taking the liberty of adjusting Zoncolan's predictions to using Nibali as a baseline, and rounding to the nearest 10s, he is suggesting

1. Danielson - 0:30
2. Velits - 0:10
3. Nibali 0:00
4. Sastre + 0:30
5. Schleck + 0:50
6. Roche + 1:30
7. Tondo + 2:40
8. Rodriguez + 2:50
9. Mosquera + 3:00

So I'll predict:
Velits -0:40
Nibali 0:00
Danielson + 0:10
Sastre +1:00
Roche +1:00
Schleck +1:20
Rodriguez + 1:50
Tondó +2:20
Mosquera +2:20

 

[hrotha]

Danielson -0:10
Nibali 0:00
Velits +0:20
Tondó +0:40
Roche +0:50
Schleck +1:00
Sastre +1:30
Rodriguez + 1:40
Mosquera +1:40

 

[Rocksteady]

1. Cancellara
2. Larsson
3. Zabriskie
4. Millar
5. Sanchez
6. Ignatiev
7. Danielson
8. Menchov
9. Bruseghin
10. Plaza

Something like that.

Millar will be better that DZ. DZ has lost some of his TT ability trying to be a climber. I'm gonna go Dark horse and peg Millar for this win though it will probably be Canc.

Among the Favorites: Danielson to get into the top 5 overall and will be the best of the GC leaders. Nibali won't gain more than 1 min on Frank, Mosquera. J-Rod is an unknown but probably won't be more than 2 minutes behind Nibali.

Best Case Scenario: Danielson takes the lead!!! Go Tommy!!!