Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2021: Stage 9 (Puerto Lumbreras - Alto de Velefique, 188.0 km)

[Krzysztof_O]

Okay, good to know. Hope the one doesn’t nullify the racing on the other.

Unfortunately it could reduce Covadonga impact. Would be better if there was one easier stage sandwiched between Gamoniteiru and Covadonga.

 

[solo80k]

Majka will win this stage unless GC guys go crazy. I have no clue about GC, Roglic is kind of stable but isolated. Any mechanical or flat tire can put him in danger

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Majka will win this stage unless GC guys go crazy. I have no clue about GC, Roglic is kind of stable but isolated. Any mechanical or flat tire can put him in danger

Roglic is looking fine. But it's not fine when his (supposedly chief rival) Bernal keeps repeating he hopes not to lose more time. It's clear that he's not at his best and I don't know if anyone else can give Primoz a run for his money in this race. We will know more after today. If nobody can challenge Primoz then maybe at least he'll put the hammer down and do the show ending the streak of boring MTFs (though actually I don't think it will happen, he's saving himself for the 3rd week).

 

[search]

would be quite a shocker if no one can challenge Roglic at all today. This is probably his worst kind of stage.

 

[Red Rick]

I browsed through the video of when they last finished here. Velefique looks really easy after the initial 5km.

 

[gregrowlerson]

I browsed through the video of when they last finished here. Velefique looks really easy after the initial 5km.

That's what we want though. Allows and encourages attacking earlier (less fearful also of what's coming); a bit like the harder penultimate climb/easier final climb parcours that usually works.

 

[Red Rick]

That's what we want though. Allows and encourages attacking earlier (less fearful also of what's coming); a bit like the harder penultimate climb/easier final climb parcours that usually works.

True, but I've thought the same before of harder climbs and then nothing happened.

I thought it about the Grand Colombier in the Tour last year, then everyone waited to get Poglstomped.

 

[Twice.]

What about Ineos setting up a good old train to make it as hard as possible? Unlikely to yield anything today, but making every mountain stage very difficult from here on could be their best bet to crack Roglic and take significant time on him in for example stage 18.

 

[Red Rick]

What about Ineos setting up a good old train to make it as hard as possible? Unlikely to yield anything today, but making every mountain stage very difficult from here on could be their best bet to crack Roglic and take significant time on him in for example stage 18.

They need to basically isolate Roglic, and then do the good old 1/2s. Dropping Kuss is hard. And for Ineos, Roglic only has to chase down Bernal.

I think choo choo fits Movistar better.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

I think they need to throw in a good old 1/2/3/4/5/6 with the 2 from Ineos, Movistar along with maybe Landa and Haig etc. They really need to obliterate Jumbo early and leave Roglic having to do more than just follow/bonus seconds/ITT. Otherwise it will get as boring as the Tour. They need minutes on him.

 

[AlfaLum]

They need to basically isolate Roglic, and then do the good old 1/2s. Dropping Kuss is hard. And for Ineos, Roglic only has to chase down Bernal.

I think choo choo fits Movistar better.

Not Adam? Seems to be the best Ineos guy on the real climbs..

 

[Red Rick]

Not Adam? Seems to be the best Ineos guy on the real climbs..

Yates attacking Velefique seems plausible, but I think Roglic just puts Kuss on duty.

 

[johnymax]

I think they need to throw in a good old 1/2/3/4/5/6 with the 2 from Ineos, Movistar along with maybe Landa and Haig etc. They really need to obliterate Jumbo early and leave Roglic having to do more than just follow/bonus seconds/ITT. Otherwise it will get as boring as the Tour. They need minutes on him.

Don't worry. The general knowledge among cycling fans about Roglič is that he fades in the third week, can't cope with long very hard climbs and can't TT at the end of a GT. So basically this Vuelta has to be the worst GT for him ever. From what we know, he needs minutes ahead of the opposition before stage 17 to have a chance at winning in the end.

 

[BigCoward]

Don't worry. The general knowledge among cycling fans about Roglič is that he fades in the third week, can't cope with long very hard climbs and can't TT at the end of a GT. So basically this Vuelta has to be the worst GT for him ever. From what we know, he needs minutes ahead of the opposition before stage 17 to have a chance at winning in the end.

It's not the general knowledge, it's the general experience. I've not heard people say he can't do long very hard climbs that much but he is definitely weaker (by no means weak) in 3rd week.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

It's not the general knowledge, it's the general experience. I've not heard people say he can't do long very hard climbs that much but he is definitely weaker (by no means weak) in 3rd week.

Is he though? He did a very bad ITT compared to Pogacar in the last week of the 2020 Tour but as far as I can remember, he was the best in the mountains in the third week of that Tour.

 

[gregrowlerson]

True, but I've thought the same before of harder climbs and then nothing happened.

I thought it about the Grand Colombier in the Tour last year, then everyone waited to get Poglstomped.

I think that GC was still pretty steep at the top though?

Or in any case, I recall that Sepp Kuss was a problem.

 

[gregrowlerson]

It's not the general knowledge, it's the general experience. I've not heard people say he can't do long very hard climbs that much but he is definitely weaker (by no means weak) in 3rd week.

I think that johnymax is a Roglic fan who was being rather sarcastic.

 

[Gigs_98]

Is the first hard climb just Calar Alto without the final ramp?
I really enjoyed the 2017 stage in this region but I'm not expecting too much today. Velefique looks like MAL territory but I also wouldn't be surprised if everything stays together and Roglic outsprints his opponents for the stage win.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The Grand-Colombier ascent is tougher than this but shape of climb is not dissimilar. The 2020 Tour stage in question was one of the ultimate examples of Jumbo's determination to win the race by as little as possible and the quintessential example of their use, or lack thereof, of Sepp Kuss, as Tom Dumoulin took over early on the climb and then tapped out a tempo that 15 or so riders could manage all the way to 300m from the finish, while the fact Quintana and Bernal were dropped from proceedings meant everybody else in the group was already climbing some GC positions anyway so weren't inclined to risk those gains by attacking when Jumbo clearly had three men in the group, two of whom were fresh.

On the plus side, Miguel Ángel López did win this stage, which has some similarities in profile, but a bit harder, by attacking early on on the final climb (ish) - though with the final climb ending with the traditional side of Sierra Nevada, hard to make decisive, as opposed to the Las Sabinas side.

 

[Red Rick]

Is the first hard climb just Calar Alto without the final ramp?
I really enjoyed the 2017 stage in this region but I'm not expecting too much today. Velefique looks like MAL territory but I also wouldn't be surprised if everything stays together and Roglic outsprints his opponents for the stage win.

It is.

Calar Alto was actually really hampered by a strong headwind that year, which turned to cross wind on the final ramp IIRC. It's a proper climb, but I quite simply think it's too early in the Vuelta for all or nothing moves for primary contenders.

 

[Red Rick]

The Grand-Colombier ascent is tougher than this but shape of climb is not dissimilar. The 2020 Tour stage in question was one of the ultimate examples of Jumbo's determination to win the race by as little as possible and the quintessential example of their use, or lack thereof, of Sepp Kuss, as Tom Dumoulin took over early on the climb and then tapped out a tempo that 15 or so riders could manage all the way to 300m from the finish, while the fact Quintana and Bernal were dropped from proceedings meant everybody else in the group was already climbing some GC positions anyway so weren't inclined to risk those gains by attacking when Jumbo clearly had three men in the group, two of whom were fresh.

On the plus side, Miguel Ángel López did win this stage, which has some similarities in profile, but a bit harder, by attacking early on on the final climb (ish) - though with the final climb ending with the traditional side of Sierra Nevada, hard to make decisive, as opposed to the Las Sabinas side.

Contador attacked with Bardet and MAL on Monachil IIRC, which is harder than the first 5km of Velefique, and of them only MAL survived against the onslaught of the Sky train.

There's no defensive Sky train this year, which is the only advantage todays stage has.

I would also say taking GC from Culoz instead of Anglefort didn't help, but I wouldn't have been surprised if it would still be a Pog vs Rog uphill sprint

 

[Red Rick]

No break yet, which isn't surprising the average speed is ~60km/h in the first half hour.

 

[Netserk]

While it was boring to watch, LS, I don't think it was a bad play by J-V that day. Kuss was more poorly used on Loze, and the real miss was the last mountain stage (from that point on, so I'm ignoring Peyresourde for now).

 

[gregrowlerson]

While it was boring to watch, LS, I don't think it was a bad play by J-V that day. Kuss was more poorly used on Loze, and the real miss was the last mountain stage (from that point on, so I'm ignoring Peyresourde for now).

Roglic gained a bit of time on Pogacar on Loze though, and even more on others, so not sure if they did much wrong there.

 

[ice&fire]

Bernal looks undercooked. I fear he may be exposed today. He and Landa may lose time today if the strongest climbers go like 2018 S.Yates and Tibopino in La Rabassa.