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Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2022, stage 10: Elche - Alicante, 30.9k (ITT)

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Remco has targeted the Vuelta and specifically mentioned stage wins (however much you buy that non-GC mention in those comments). He has to have been targeting this TT. Says his family will be there. He'll be crazy motivated and simply has the form right now to crush this. I was thinking maybe someone outside of GC might win, someone above mentions they'll be less tired which is a very good point. All the same.

Remco has been incredible hitting his targets this year. Betting he will hit this one as well.
 
Cavagna? The team will/should tell him to keep it light: he's a tool in Remco's box, he needs to be sharp moving forward.

Roglic could lose anywhere between nothing at his very best to 45 seconds max: I don't see him losing a minute, two seconds per kilometer to Remco. That's a lot. He's Primoz Roglic, we tend to forget it here.

Mas may get caught by Roglic, and if that is the case, Ayuso will be KIng of Spain tomorrow night, at least in the Vuelta GC. I'm a believer.

...and Simon Yates wins! Remember? He's one to watch, he can podium. When he's on, he's on. And let's not forget Vincenzo! He too can catch Mas: don't ask me how, but he can.

Tomorrow, Remco can slam his fist on the table and they will all know who the boss is. And start thinking about a plan B, the podium for Roglic, defending the podium for Mas, getting on the podium for Ayuso, et caetera...

The 3-7 intrigues may begin earlier than usual...time gaps should get them grouped in a handkerchief.
 
Remco will probably win this. Will probably take 10-30 sec on Roglic. If he gets close to a minute, then Roglic is really bad.

Fully expect the gaps after this stage to be 2-3-4 as follows to the next 3 riders.


As for non of the Steppers trying hard..I will be surprised if Van Wilder doesn't try hard. He is good In the TT's and in the next few stages he will be able to recover. May not be really needed till Saturday or even Sunday.
 
Remco will win.
Roglic + :30
Mas + :70
Other GC riders further back
I am hoping that a few of the riders in the bottom 10-12 of GC can do decent TTs, to stay within range of being even the slightest of threats to Remco. I don’t believe any of them will actually threaten, but for my entertainment value I’d to see how QS will respond to, let’s say, Sivakov or Tao getting into an early break that gets 10 minutes on the peloton. I don’t think this will work, because other teams (Movistar?) will end up helping QS chase in order to save their GC spots (and the all-important points). But it still would give us something else interesting to think about during some of the stages with suitable terrain.
 
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I am hoping that a few of the riders in the bottom 10-12 of GC can do decent TTs, to stay within range of being even the slightest of threats to Remco. I don’t believe any of them will actually threaten, but for my entertainment value I’d to see how QS will respond to, let’s say, Sivakov or Tao getting into an early break that gets 10 minutes on the peloton. I don’t think this will work, because other teams (Movistar?) will end up helping QS chase in order to save their GC spots (and the all-important points). But it still would give us something else interesting to think about during some of the stages with suitable terrain.


To be honest profiles for most of the stages are so outrageously bad that I don't see how can any significant climber (going for GC) join the breakaway. Serry is a loss, but QS are still good enough to keep the breakaway within check, at least on the flats so even without the other teams they should be fine.
 
Remco will probably win this. Will probably take 10-30 sec on Roglic. If he gets close to a minute, then Roglic is really bad.

Fully expect the gaps after this stage to be 2-3-4 as follows to the next 3 riders.


As for non of the Steppers trying hard..I will be surprised if Van Wilder doesn't try hard. He is good In the TT's and in the next few stages he will be able to recover. May not be really needed till Saturday or even Sunday.
Unfortunately he already said he wasn't going all out since he is important for Evenepoel the next few days.
I also wonder if Dennis, for similar reasons, is going to go all out, especially with Kuss already out of the race.
I think Hayter of the non-GC guys might be the only one who has no ''prior engagements''.
 
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Unfortunately he already said he wasn't going all out since he is important for Evenepoel the next few days.
I also wonder if Dennis, for similar reasons, is going to go all out, especially with Kuss already out of the race.
I think Hayter of the non-GC guys might be the only one who has no ''prior engagements''.

I might be wrong but isn't he most important in the mountain stages? Next few stages allow him to recover.
We have 2 flat stages and Peñas Blancas after an easy stage.

Dennis... knowing the kind of guy he is, will probably want to go for the stage if he is good enough.
Frankly, how much a TT after a rest day can impact your shape/recovery given the stages that follow?
 
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Cavagna? The team will/should tell him to keep it light: he's a tool in Remco's box, he needs to be sharp moving forward.

Roglic could lose anywhere between nothing at his very best to 45 seconds max: I don't see him losing a minute, two seconds per kilometer to Remco. That's a lot. He's Primoz Roglic, we tend to forget it here.

Mas may get caught by Roglic, and if that is the case, Ayuso will be KIng of Spain tomorrow night, at least in the Vuelta GC. I'm a believer.

...and Simon Yates wins! Remember? He's one to watch, he can podium. When he's on, he's on. And let's not forget Vincenzo! He too can catch Mas: don't ask me how, but he can.

Tomorrow, Remco can slam his fist on the table and they will all know who the boss is. And start thinking about a plan B, the podium for Roglic, defending the podium for Mas, getting on the podium for Ayuso, et caetera...

The 3-7 intrigues may begin earlier than usual...time gaps should get them grouped in a handkerchief.
Mas can’t get caught by Roglic, except if he swapped GC places with him overnight.
 
I am horrible at predicting TTs but I am tempted by Dennis at $9.50. I don't know why he wouldn't go all out given he isn't doing the Worlds.

Also interested in how Yates goes in terms of the GC. $9 to podium (GC, not this stage, obviously) seems a generous price to me.
 
Evenepoel to win by around 20 seconds to take his maiden grand tour stage victory In the process. He has prepared and recced the course and has set this stage as a target for a long time unlike most of the other TT specialists. He is in top form so I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t win this. Par for Roglic would be around 30-40 seconds, anything less than that and he can be happy with his days work. Anything more and it’s Remcos race to lose barring a crash or something unforeseen. I think Ganna, Hayter, Dennis and Arrensman will be the other contenders.
 
Evenepoel to win by around 20 seconds to take his maiden grand tour stage victory In the process. He has prepared and recced the course and has set this stage as a target for a long time unlike most of the other TT specialists. He is in top form so I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t win this. Par for Roglic would be around 30-40 seconds, anything less than that and he can be happy with his days work. Anything more and it’s Remcos race to lose barring a crash or something unforeseen. I think Ganna, Hayter, Dennis and Arrensman will be the other contenders.
not ganna happen
 
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Cavagna? The team will/should tell him to keep it light: he's a tool in Remco's box, he needs to be sharp moving forward.

Roglic could lose anywhere between nothing at his very best to 45 seconds max: I don't see him losing a minute, two seconds per kilometer to Remco. That's a lot. He's Primoz Roglic, we tend to forget it here.

Mas may get caught by Roglic, and if that is the case, Ayuso will be KIng of Spain tomorrow night, at least in the Vuelta GC. I'm a believer.

...and Simon Yates wins! Remember? He's one to watch, he can podium. When he's on, he's on. And let's not forget Vincenzo! He too can catch Mas: don't ask me how, but he can.

Tomorrow, Remco can slam his fist on the table and they will all know who the boss is. And start thinking about a plan B, the podium for Roglic, defending the podium for Mas, getting on the podium for Ayuso, et caetera...

The 3-7 intrigues may begin earlier than usual...time gaps should get them grouped in a handkerchief.

That would mean Mas caught Rog first, which would mean an utterly catastrophic TT from Rog, and being caught by Remco as well
 
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I'm surprised how people are writing off Roglic so easily, I know he's not on form atm but he's still the Olympic TT champion!
The Olympics TT is a real outlier regarding the opposition he beat at longer TTs, and the gap by witch he beat them. If you look at the other 25+k TT he's done, they have been less impressive (opposition + gap). On the other hand, in flat TT's Evenepoel has already taken some scalps of big names. And then there is the current form.
 
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The Olympics TT is a real outlier regarding the opposition he beat at longer TTs, and the gap by witch he beat them. If you look at the other 25+k TT he's done, they have been less impressive (opposition + gap). On the other hand, in flat TT's Evenepoel has already taken some scalps of big names. And then there is the current form.
I just filtered his pcs results for ITTs starting 2018 and sorted by distance. He got 1st in 5 of the longest 7 ITTs he has contested. I see your point about opposition, but in the style of Remco proponents, allow me to present the following:
  • As you mentioned, 2021 Olympics ITT he beat all comers after crashing out of the Tour
  • 2021 Vuelta - 1st, beating Cavagna
  • 2021 Itzulia - 1st, beating Remco, Cavagna, GT, Vingegaard
  • 2019 Giro - 1st ahead of Campenaerts
    2017 Giro he beat Cancellara and Kung to win
  • 2017 World Champs he was 2nd behind Dumoulin and ahead of Froome, etc
  • 2016 - 1st ahead of Cancelara, Kung
 
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