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Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2023, stage 5: Morella - Burriana, 186.2k

Sprint opportunity number two. It's similar to today's stage in more ways than one... we'll get to that.

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The stage start is in Morella, a small town in the very north of the Comunitat Valenciana dominated by its rather spectacular fortress. There are over 2000 metres of elevation gain in this stage, but just like today it's all at low gradients. This is especially true for the first uncategorised climb, Coll d'Ares.
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The riders then descend the side of this climb that was used as an MTF in 2019, before hitting a trickier uncategorised climb in Alto de Culla.
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After a long descent, the route skirts around the edge of the Sistema Ibérico, taking in some easy bumps.
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The main difficulty of the day is the Collada de la Ibola, coming at 54k to go. It's long and somewhat irregular, but the gradients are mostly unthreatening.
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From here, it's mostly downhill into the coastal plain, with only the glorified false flat western side of Collado de Marianet to break things up.
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Once in the floodplain, there's a very late intermediate sprint before another sketchy finale. There are no less than eight roundabouts between 4.5k and 1k to go, then there's a turn that's sharper than 90 degrees at 800 metres from the line.
 
The stupid thing about this finish is that they could have easily avoided that last turn by taking a right at the final roundabout, taking the first left after that, then turning right onto the final straight at about 550-600 metres from the line. All 90-degree turns and on equally wide roads as the ones actually being used.

There's probably some company that paid big money for the race to go right past their office...
 
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The stupid thing about this finish is that they could have easily avoided that last turn by taking a right at the final roundabout, taking the first left after that, then turning right onto the final straight at about 550-600 metres from the line. All 90-degree turns and on equally wide roads as the ones actually being used.
The street before the final turn in your alternative looks narrower on Google Street View
 
With Coquard possibly out, Dainese seemingly not having good legs, UAE probably not working, the break might actually got a chance if there are some good riders in it. The start of the stage being up and down will make it harder for Alpecin to control how big the break will be and who will be in it.

Maybe Lotto helps for Menten, or like Trek for Theuns but they probably know they don't stand a chance against Groves anyways.
 
If you were to remove the garbage containers and parked cars, it's actually wider than the parallel road they actually use.

Narrowest point of actual route
Narrowest point of alternative
If they do the same in both cases, the last 80m before the last turn are wider in the actual route.
And it's all to replace a 100 deg turn by another 100 deg turn with a wider curvature radius but a traffic island, followed by a 95 deg turn and a 91 deg turn. No, they're not 90º turns, I've done my trigonometry.

Edit: that roundabout is narrow anyway way they take it, as it is asymmetric and they can only take it on one side.
 
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I expect a weak Second division + Astana break situation that allows a sprint in the end. This is even more stupid then in the Tour as teams botched chances for breakaway wins just to escalate completely on the last possibel chances for a stage win. With a fair bit of climbing in the first 50 k it should be possible to form a realtively big breakaway 10+. Then it depends who's in it. Alepcin will pull, maybe Lotto if they are not represented, but then...

Should be an easy breakaway win in my eyes if teams aren't stupid.
 
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