Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2024: First rest day thread

[Nick2413]

Sticking with Yates.

 

[ontheroad]

Ben O'Connor will win this race. He generally doesn't tend to ship minutes and is very good at limiting his losses. He has such a time buffer that he can afford to lose 30 seconds here or there on the bigger stages with Gall being used as a yard dog.

I'm not convinced by Roglic and I think that Carapaz and Mas may be his main dangers.

 

[firefly3323]

I voted for Roglic at the beginning because he has the experience of wining this race and he is a top rider. I voted for him again at this stage but maybe from habit as he hasn't been looking great and we cant forget the bad back or the poor team

But anyone in the top 9 could win with Kuss still a possibility to come into the top GC as the next 2 weeks go by

If Rog's team is 'poor' and will potentially be a cause for not winning how on Earth does Kuss have a chance with how incredibly poor his team is?

 

[IndurainsTdF1994]

Assuming Rog's back will not be a factor, admittedly a huge assumption, he should still be the favorite: he came into Vuelta in (again, hopefully) an ascending form (due to doing only a partial prep according to some reports), and has a higher max level than others.

But who knows. What fun.

 

[fenns]

I think Roglic will prove to be the strongest

 

[tobydawq]

I think O'Connor will hold on now.

But what a time to be alive.

 

[James M]

But what a time to be alive.

Bro. Did you get a tinder match ?

 

[tobydawq]

Bro. Did you get a tinder match ?

Thankfully, I'm past the need for that.

You don't find this Vuelta great?

 

[Escarabajo]

You could argue that Enric Mas is the best climber in the race, but cannot vote for him. Mas winning a GT is like thinking of your parents having sex.

Voted O'Connor. His confidence level will increase by the day and have one of the best domestiques of the race.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Nairo and Rubio have been completely useless. At least Nairo has an excuse of being hurt during Burgos.

Lazkano was completely wasted working with O’Conner, and Sanchez the day before.

I was hyped for this team before the start, but they have been the biggest flop of the race next to Bora when it comes to expectations of strength in the mountains.

Sosa is a terrible GC rider, but he’s done a ton of decent domestique work in the buildup races this year for Mas. Pedrero’s record as a domestique speaks for itself. Where the hell is freaking Guerreiro? He is back racing earlier last month?

I have never been a huge Nairo fan, but definitely respect him and have no arguments about his inclusion. We all saw him ride himself into form at the Giro and I don’t doubt he will probably be much better the deeper we get.

Rubio however has been awful. Oscar Rodriguez is lasting longer in the main group than he is, and he was ignored at Movistar. Freaking Gaviria would probably be more of a help than this guy has been. Lazkano’s leaving so he probably just wants his stage win. They left Verona at home last year when he was leaving and Aranburu isn’t here. Those guys are great doms.

You would get a lot more help from the likes of Serrano, Pedrero, Sosa, Guerreiro, and Samitier than these clowns so far on the climbs. Oliviera has been good though as he always is.

Yes, they have been quite deplorable so far, simple as. The hope is the two Colombians can ride into shape, otherwise it willl be impossible to put any pressure on the climbs AT ALL. Lazkano, Pelayo, Canal and Olivera should be able to control a MTF or two (those that are easy leading up to the climb). These rouleur types are on paper quite strong, but he needs some pulls from the bottom from Quintana and Rubio, otherwise they are a complete waste.

 

[ManicJack]

As a fan of bike racing, and no particular rider, I don't care who wins, but I'm not convinced O'CONNOR has such an easy ride ahead of him as some believe. I just hope COVID doesn't play a bigger role than it already has.

 

[KZD]

I think all riders in the poll have a chance to win the Vuelta apart from Gall who I just think is too limited to win a Grand Tour and Rodriguez who doesn't seem to be in top shape.

I still vote for Roglič to win the Vuelta though as I believe stage 9 was just a bad day but I am less convinced now than I was a few days ago because there are several riders that seem to be close to his level and O'Connor is still almost 4 minutes ahead.

 

[Gratemans]

Mas winning a GT is like thinking of your parents having sex

You just won the forum 😆

 

[Cookster15]

After stage 8 I thought oh no O'Conner is gone, and so soon after he did that great ride to Yunquera to forge out a nearly 5 minute gap. But yesterday O'Conner and Decathlon bounced back and it was Primoz Roglic struggling with back problems suffered from his big Tour crash. So I still pick O'Conner.

I was critical of Felix Gall leaving his leader on Sierra de Cazorla but in hindsight I think there was nothing sinister and yesterday Gall adjusted his pacing to support O'Conner much better. That will also help the Australian's confidence.

O'Conner has nearly 4 minutes lead over Roglic but there are still some fearsome stages remaining. Next big rendezvous looks like stage 13 to Puerto de Ancares. With a 4 minute lead the aim for O'Conner must be to not risk cracking - ride smart. Roglic will struggle to take 4 minutes if he doesn't.

But when I joined this Forum I could be accused of being a July fan. Now I am here during the Vuelta. Pat on the back

 

[Andre]

The first time I picked Rodriguez. Now I'm still picking Rodriguez. It's a crazy vuelta, so it could happen.

 

[Samamba]

Tomorrow Bennett, Fortunato and Martin all in the top 10 of GC

 

[AnotherArmChair]

If Rog's team is 'poor' and will potentially be a cause for not winning how on Earth does Kuss have a chance with how incredibly poor his team is?

ah but that is the mystery of cycling

The Bora team needs to be strong so Rog can take time back on O Connor and also to stop strong riders going in the break and into the top GC

Visma dont have that role ...As long as Rog is in the race Bora are needed to control the race

My view about Kuss is if he comes back up GC it will be from a breakaway and probably in final week or from a long solo attack so Visma dont necessarily need to be super strong

 

[Sciatic]

ah but that is the mystery of cycling

The Bora team needs to be strong so Rog can take time back on O Connor and also to stop strong riders going in the break and into the top GC

Visma dont have that role ...As long as Rog is in the race Bora are needed to control the race

My view about Kuss is if he comes back up GC it will be from a breakaway and probably in final week or from a long solo attack so Visma dont necessarily need to be super strong

Even in top shape this Vuelta does not have the long, high-altitude multiple col stages where Kuss could do the most damage, and Idont think he’s in top form,

 

[Invicituz]

I can't see Primož Roglič pulling back a 3:53-minute deficit unless O'Connor, who has been performing exceptionally well thus far, has a bad day. I expect that O'Connor will become the first Australian to win the Vuelta.

 

[durtyfat7]

- O'Connor has already achieved a few top5 in previous Grand Tour, so he should have the confidence, but he always tends to have bad day or.making bad choices when going too hard to chase other riders. And there's alot.of hard stages coming.
- Roglic : Still the main favorite because he knows how to win the Vuelta and has the team for that.
- Carapaz : Even tho he's third, he was still not close to the likes of Roglic/Mas/Landa in pervious stages
- Mas : Best shape he's shown since a long time, and he always does.well at the Vuelta. But he's too passive sometimes and not consistent enough.
Landa: If he didn't race the TDF full gas, I think he would be the main favorite of this Vuelta, and if he keep his shape and improve, and also the temperature will be more normal in the last 2 weeks, he has a chance for a podium
Yates : Same as Carapaz, he just had one good day in the mountains and is back in the GC bcs he was far back before the start of 9th stage.

Prediction: 1. O'Connor 2. Roglic 3. Landa

 

[perico]

- O'Connor has already achieved a few top5 in previous Grand Tour, so he should have the confidence, but he always tends to have bad day or.making bad choices when going too hard to chase other riders. And there's alot.of hard stages coming.
- Roglic : Still the main favorite because he knows how to win the Vuelta and has the team for that.
- Carapaz : Even tho he's third, he was still not close to the likes of Roglic/Mas/Landa in pervious stages
- Mas : Best shape he's shown since a long time, and he always does.well at the Vuelta. But he's too passive sometimes and not consistent enough.
Landa: If he didn't race the TDF full gas, I think he would be the main favorite of this Vuelta, and if he keep his shape and improve, and also the temperature will be more normal in the last 2 weeks, he has a chance for a podium
Yates : Same as Carapaz, he just had one good day in the mountains and is back in the GC bcs he was far back before the start of 9th stage.

Prediction: 1. O'Connor 2. Roglic 3. Landa

Uhhh... Mas is incredibly consistent, but usually never outstanding. You can't have a palmares like he does in the Vuelta and not be consistent. Last year he was undercooked due to his crash in the TDF, but still was in the podium race until the Angliru. The last two times before that he finished 2nd, then 5th in 2020, and 2nd in 2018.

How much more consistant can you be?

 

[Nick2413]

Is this Roglic’s last real chance to win a GT?

 

[CyclistAbi]

Only one is sticking out.

Is this Roglic’s last real chance to win a GT?

More like his first considering he is doing it.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

More like his first considering he is doing it.

Yes, this is roglic's first real chance to win a gt. Thanks for bringing rationality back to the forum.

Like all up and coming talents Roglic has an incredible physiological ability, but lacks some racecraft, handling skills and leadership ability. These will surely come with more experience , no doubt

 

[SHAD0W93]

Yes, this is roglic's first real chance to win a gt. Thanks for bringing rationality back to the forum.

Like all up and coming talents Roglic has an incredible physiological ability, but lacks some racecraft, handling skills and leadership ability. These will surely come with more experience , no doubt

I thought Roglic was already retired? That’s what I read in a different thread.