Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2024, stage 15: Infiesto - Cuitu Negru, 142.9k

[Devil's Elbow]

Happy rampas inhumanas day! Sadly they're all in the final 3 kilometres, so it isn't likely to be the most aggressively-raced stage.

Not the most inspired run-in to the MTF, with two ascents of Colladiella separated by the easy Santo Emiliano. Both climbs are pretty far away from Cuitu Negru, so we have a long valley between the final two climbs. Then again, Roberto Heras did win the race here on the way to Pajarés (the same MTF minus the insane ramps near the end) in 2005...

And then it's time for the MTF, the single hardest climb of this Vuelta and hence a place where gaining time is perhaps obligatory for anyone looking to trouble Roglic. Ignoring the false flat at the start of the profile, it's 18.7k at 7.2%, but of course most of the action should come in the final 2.8 kilometres, which average 13.2% while still being quite irregular.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Just give this one to Woods or Wout, if the others aren't interested again...

The scenery should be lovely though, yes?

 

[Mayomaniac]

The goattrack to end all goattracks is finally back!

 

[hfer07]

This stage will define La Vuelta's winner. anyone from the GC top 4 arriving to the last 8ks with the best legs will get to make huge gaps.
Primoz arrives to this stage 15 as the main GC favorite, but then we have Mas riding very well, while Landissimo & Carapaz are not far behind... so all bets are off

 

[Coffeeplanter]

The roof of la Vuelta, at barely 1800 meters. Give me Pico Veleta.

 

[Netserk]

I have higher hopes for RedBull to chase tomorrow before the race winning stomp.

 

[Red Rick]

Most boring way is 3km gigastomp, but I like drilling it really hard from the village of Pajares while before that doing tje generic breakaway control pace with your rouleurs

Especially with tailwind predicted on Pajares

 

[Cookster15]

This stage has Roglic written all over it with the way he is riding - should take the red jersey here. Red Bull will try to control the race until 3km to go. Will be interesting to see how close Mas can stay. I don't think Carapaz can.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Somewhere at this very moment , Marc soler is looking at the stage profile and thinking that the climb which summit 40km from the start of cuito negru, is the perfect place to launch an attack!!

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Pelayo and Mas to ride away from everyone like Samu and Heras 19 years ago.

 

[Berniece]

I hope Roglic goes for a long range attack, not just the last 3km’s. At least do 8

 

[ice&fire]

Roglic is in a position where he can afford winning the race doing what gets Remco piss*d off the most.

 

[ashhutch1997]

From my memory, Contador attacked and blew the race up way before the final 3km on the main road? Then again, the 2012 Vuelta was an insane race.

 

[topcat]

A day for O'Connor to cement his hold on the red jersey.

 

[Andre]

I hope WVA can get those other mountain points before the last climb.

 

[Carols]

Roglic is in a position where he can afford winning the race doing what gets Remco piss*d off the most.

Difficult to say what pisses Remco the most. The list is long

 

[dazaau]

A day for O'Connor to cement his hold on the red jersey.

As much as I'd like to see that I think he is done. Roglic can just take bonus seconds and the TT from here if he wanted to win that way.

 

[Cookster15]

A day for O'Connor to cement his hold on the red jersey.

That would be great to see. But I am doubtful.

 

[The Barb]

Forgive the long post ... I'm really enthused about this stage.

Break or GC?

I'd thought all along that this would be GC, particularly being the last stage before the rest day, but the way the GC sits now I'm not so sure. Red Bull doesn't need to make it a GC day. O'Connor is no longer a threat and the easier the stage is ridden the better it is for Roglic as against guys like Mas and Landa. For that reason it may rest on Movistar, EF or Soudal to make it a GC day if they want to try to burn off O'Connor for a podium spot. But none of them have shown much inclination of this nature.

For that reason I lean slightly towards it being another day for the break.

Leading breakaway candidates

This is a huge day for the Mountains competition, with two Cat 1s (10 points each) and the Alberto Fernandez at the finish (20 points, the only 20 point climb in the race).

So I guess WVA will be in the break to try to get points on the first two climbs, but he couldn't possibly win the stage.

To me there's an obvious candidate - Jay Vine. We know he wants the Mountains Classification (remember he had in all but secured in 2022, 29 points clear, before he crashed out on Stage 18). He sits joint 2nd in the Mountains Classification, albeit 23 points behind WVA. He must be in the break.

And his form seems pretty good, assuming he's taken no harm from the McNulty incident two days ago, which didn't look serious for him. It's telling that Soler said afterwards that Vine had good legs and they were riding solely for him until the crash. We know that at his peak he is an elite climber, and his time trialing ability increases the likelihood of him getting into the break.

The guy who worries me is Sepp Kuss. Obviously if he's in the break then he will be the favourite, but will he be allowed to go? He sits 15th at 7:28, which might be a little too close to be allowed in the break, but it's not impossible. The GC podium contending teams certainly wouldn't let him have 5 minutes, but they could peg him at 2-3 entering the final climb without being too concerned. For sure he's going to try to get a stage win at some point in this Vuelta, and after today there are only three more realistic possibilities for him.

If WVA and Sepp are both in the break then Sepp becomes just about unbeatable. WVA would get the points on the first two climbs then drill it on the flat to the base of the last climb, repaying Sepp for his phenomenal work for WVA on Stage 7.

 

[movingtarget]

Should be a new leader in Red if the last few days is anything to go by but stranger things have happened.The podium positions should start to look a little clearer after this stage.

 

[Oldermanish]

Just give this one to Woods or Wout, if the others aren't interested again...

The scenery should be lovely though, yes?

I think someone will get frisky with 17 km to go with Kuss on the loose ahead of other GC guys. Wout might actually do some team pulls as Barb notes above, particularly because a big gap might help him in pursuit of that other jersey. Bora should sit on this to the point Kuss gets 3+ minutes up the road, take some dramatically ineffective pulls in pursuit to get the ever-ready Movistar guys to take over from any remnants of O'Connor's crew. It'll be a second GC race from 19km to the end, though.

 

[SHAD0W93]

This is where Adam makes his winning move


Overall worst case scenario would be if they just let the break take the win and ride slowly moving into the hands of Roglic. The others definitely screwed up riding with Roglic to distance O’Connor or to bring Mas back the other day. Be interesting if Bora want to try getting another win for Roglic.

 

[Oldermanish]

This is where Adam makes his winning move


Overall worst case scenario would be if they just let the break take the win and ride slowly moving into the hands of Roglic. The others definitely screwed up riding with Roglic to distance O’Connor or to bring Mas back the other day. Be interesting if Bora want to try getting another win for Roglic.

It'd be epic if Bora tried to set a Roglic win up. The win doesn't count as much as the gap to Mas and Carapaz in my mind. They are riding like the only other guys that will risk losing to win. Still another week after tomorrow to settle for a podium. Bora has been focused on building those gaps and should continue with the beatings.

 

[Miha81]

I think Bora won't chase and will bet everything on last few km stomp. I would love some proper GC action on the last climb.

 

[Valv.Piti]

A day for O'Connor to cement his hold on the red jersey.

Saxo Bank hard paced the entire climb, especially the 2nd step leading up to the orginal climb finish to Puerto Pajares. It was only Valverde, Purito and Rodriguez left with a wild Quintana emerging before the plateau leading up to the rampas. Contador couldn't drop Purito and Valverde kept coming back, but we all know what happened in the end when youre going to the top of rampas with Purito in your wheel!

This is also what makes this better than the very similar climb to Bola del Mundo, you actually have very hard percentages for a few kilometres before the last 3 km kick, so its possible to blow the race apart BEFORE if you really want to. Its also very possible for riders like Landa, Carapaz and Mas to blow it up before, and especially the latter needs to because he cant just let Bora control and go into the last 3 km with Roglic. Thats a reciper for disaster, especially as Rog can chill a bit in the wheels for a few kilometres on the plateau