Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2024, stage 9: Motril - Granada, 179.2k

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If you look at the ultimate groupings of today's finish, lots of riders had a bad day.
Del Toro can enjoy now a completely different role for 2 weeks at the team's discretion.. He fell into the toilet today, no real chance of much. Many future stages fit his skill set and nobody will chase him, any chance for respect was lost today.. Future breakaways can include quality riders from biggest teams, w zero GC threat.. Great opportunity for guys to salvage something..
 
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So it seems O'Connor will win this after all. If they couldn't drop him on these long steep climbs, it's over.
He could fail another days..but yesterday he just pay a little to be a in a long break 2 days before. We will se, but is going to be very difficult. Roglic could get some secons and bonus in different stages, but he need minutes.
 
In that case maybe Carapaz or UAE didnt try from so far. But anyway thay dont have anything to lose, so maybe was a similar start.

And in that case Mas would have put 2 minutes to Roglic, maybe Landa was stronger at the end...maybe today, yes, would have been better to finish at Sierra Nevada.
Yeah I agree, and also just get rid of the pesky climbs in between, it just makes the riders tired. Just go _______/, as is tradition. While they're at it, they could have just started in Granada and we could've watched the entire 50km stage!
 
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Yeah I agree, and also just get rid of the pesky climbs in between, it just makes the riders tired. Just go _______/, as is tradition. While they're at it, they could have just started in Granada and we could've watched the entire 50km stage!
You know, I wouldn't mind a Sierra Nevada stage from Granada to Hoya de la Mora. I just so happened to trace one yesterday as part of a Vuelta that I'm brewing.
 
So you only have O'Connor, Rogla & Mas as contenders for the title?
Pretty much. Now I don't think it's completely impossible for him to win, but I think the three you mentioned all have way better chances. I just don't think it's very probable that a guy doesn't look remotely like in gt winning shape on the first two climbing tests but then starts to not only hang on with the best climbers for the rest of the race but actually starts dropping them. I think by far the most likely scenario is him continuously losing time throughout the rest of the race and finishing somewhere outside the podium spots.
 
Yeah this would be a great stage, though the loop before the final climb is a bit risky/short.
Yeah, but because the stage is so short, I don't expect the gruppetto to be more than 40 minutes behind at the top of the second climb. Heck, they'd probably need to be more than 45 minutes down after 84 km to be lapped. In that case, they'd fall for the time-cut anyway.
EDIT: Hmm, maybe more like 35'-40'.
 
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Pretty much. Now I don't think it's completely impossible for him to win, but I think the three you mentioned all have way better chances. I just don't think it's very probable that a guy doesn't look remotely like in gt winning shape on the first two climbing tests but then starts to not only hang on with the best climbers for the rest of the race but actually starts dropping them. I think by far the most likely scenario is him continuously losing time throughout the rest of the race and finishing somewhere outside the podium spots.
I think this first week has been so weird, circumstantial and with swings in form that I can easily imagine both Carapaz and Yates to be among the three strongest riders for the rest of the race.
 
Jul 31, 2024
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Since a couple of hours have passed since the stage, another take on a probably unpredictable race.
Getting Adam Yates and Richi Carapaz back in contention and the fact, that Roglic didn't look prime today makes things actually more complicated for BOC and AG2R. I think the peloton will be looking less at RBBH now and other teams will look to create more chances for themselves.
 

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