Saturated for sure, but 'selling the same thing', that depends. Yes, they are all selling IPA, for example, but they definitely aren't the same thing IMO. I do think that too many small brewers tried to differentiate by doing things that just didn't appeal to enough drinkers.
I prefer tequila, but enjoy beer, and I'm picky about both.
I think that all of the 'hard' seltzer, tea, cider, etc.. probably accounts for most of the reduction in craft beer sales (I wonder how sales of B&C light/PBR are doing?).