What can stop Froome at the Tour?

[Escarabajo]

They don't have to contribute one each, just say on the penultimate climb Saxo does it. Leaves a group of say exactly those who hung on in the dauphine, SANCHEZ, FUGLSANG, PORTE, MORENO, CLEMENT, VALVERDE, FROOME, NAVARRO, CONTADOR. So now for a descent, and the ultimate climb, the guys who are not sky can play attack and counter attack and let richie and froome do the work to pull back every attack.
Would it work? The chances are low, chances are the strongest guy wins no matter what. However something like this has a much better chance of working than sitting behind Sky as they do exactly what they did last year with Wiggins.

It reminds me of all the strategies that people used to come up with in order to dethrone the Texan when they had their powerful US Postal train. The truth is that nothing works against it if Froome already has the advantage from the TT. Rogers stated it correctly last year. Just set tempo at X watts and everybody would be very much at their limit or threshold. It is a very simple formula and it worked for US Postal / Discovery for many years. Attacks above threshold would be suicide. That's why people hate trains. Because you have at your disposal several riders who can push the watts. In other words you have several riders who can be leaders on their own.

 

[Samson777]

This poll needs a Vino option.

 

[icefire]

This poll needs a Vino option.

If you need last option being explicitly labelled as the Vino option...

 

[karlboss]

Pricey Sky, I agree it does depend on whoever is attacking to be a threat. No Sky has never chased attack after attack, because they've never been forced to.

Indian cyclist, there are many substitutes/omissions in there, Rodriguez for/with Moreno, quintana will surely be there, a number of guys from tour de suisse. Attack after attack come after you've dismantled the train. So it would be Froome and Porte grinding away to pull attacks back. Or if they choose not to respond to the initial train by another team, then you see Sky vs group of favourites, I'll concede Sky could win that anyway.

Escarabajo, In general I agree with you, that's why this approach is low percentage, however not as low as not trying anything and hoping for the best. When did anyone try one of these tactics against USPS? The closest I can remember was Vinokourov attacking...followed by Kloden bringing him back. I also remember T Mobile in 2005(?) using the train themselves, only for Armstrong to hang on and win himself. However they were trying on the ultimate climb, not before.

The idea is to "race" against sky, make them double guess their strategy, and perhaps slip up. Even let a lazy stage 15 break go with 20 riders, one of them 15 minutes down and give them 20 minutes. Whoops. Another strategy would be put a dangerous rider in every break, and try to make the breaks big enough to be dangerous from day one. Again I'll admit this is low percentage, but better than nothing. At best you end up with a victory, at worst 10th and boatloads of TV time. Most likely Froome still wins, and a GC rider going on the early attack finishes 2 positions lower than not trying.

 

[nick101]

if contador is on form which I hope he will be, then he should be a real threat and cause problems for froome. after his disaster in the tt, he'll certainly give his tt'ing emphasis. with the tactical genius of riis he could outsmart sky. after all under riis satsre won the 2008 tour despite not being the strongest. theres lots of climbing domestiques that could cause headaches for sky. with katusha Moreno, whoever is leader at movistar will have two riders at their service who could have been gc. contador may have kreuziger?? and rogers. the theory behind sky's train is to set a tempo which troubles the riders, but with an on form contador or schleck, the pace wouldn't cause troubles for them. they'd attack and the sky domestiques wouldn't have the ability to chase them for more than a km before dropping off. porte could close a couple of attacks, but with contador or schleck on form it'd be attack after attack, leaving froome isolated and over-reached by chasing the attacks himself. on the tourmalet in 2010 schleck put in nearly 20 accelerations!! the big mountains don't come until stage 15, and by then contador and schleck will mostly be at a good level. the thing for schleck is if he is able to hang on in the first two mountain stages and not lose time, if so he'll be able to reach form by ventoux and cause havoc on sky

 

[Telmisartan new]

on the tourmalet in 2010 schleck put in nearly 20 accelerations!! the big mountains don't come until stage 15, and by then contador and schleck will mostly be at a good level. the thing for schleck is if he is able to hang on in the first two mountain stages and not lose time, if so he'll be able to reach form by ventoux and cause havoc on sky

Whilst the spectacle of Contador/Schleck both on top form tormenting the Sky train appeals to me, Schleck Tourmalet 2010 and Schleck TDF 2013 are two entirely different propositions.Contador will have to find help elsewhere or more likely do it himself.

 

[Afrank]

Whilst the spectacle of Contador/Schleck both on top form tormenting the Sky train appeals to me, Schleck Tourmalet 2010 and Schleck TDF 2013 are two entirely different propositions.Contador will have to find help elsewhere or more likely do it himself.

Nairo Q. Just has to get out from Valverde's shadow.

 

[Telmisartan new]

Nairo Q. Just has to get out from Valverde's shadow.

Yes,most definitely,he may have been hyped silly on this forum but with good reason,for some weeks i have been thinking he is the one guy who could really throw a spanner in the works for Sky.I dont know internal Movistar position though,he was heavily restricted helping Valverde at Vuelta,will they allow him a free role? Interesting to consider...Here's hoping.

 

[xrayvision]

Easy. Contador will. Next please...

 

[airstream]

I see people confuse Froome with Wiggins here. Froome's isolation won't give anything. Moreover he'll isolate everyone going solo.

Contador fans rely on Schleck like on a part of success. Since when? Pathetic.......

 

[airstream]

Nairo Q. Just has to get out from Valverde's shadow.

Do you seriously think he's able to be on the level of best of the best in the 1st Tour?

 

[karlboss]

Do you seriously think he's able to be on the level of best of the best in the 1st Tour?

Jan Ullrich, just saying it isn't unprecedented.

 

[The Eggman]

I actually think a Schlck or Evans is far more likely to cause issues, because they will ride with nothing to lose and as such might actually gamble a bit.

 

[Telmisartan new]

Do you seriously think he's able to be on the level of best of the best in the 1st Tour?

The context of the discussion at the time you made your post was that Contador may need some help to try and explode the race at some point,his own team may be better than some think,Kreuziger was terrific in support of Lo Squalo winning La Vuelta and seems to be going really well,Roche i don't know, but Quintana is certainly capable of lighting up a stage or two.

What happens if its the top boys left,Froome only has Porte,let's say AC and Nairito go hard,does Froome follow,could he follow,probably he could but all people are doing here is some speculative theorising.

Quintana is definitely capable of taking a stage at TDF if Movistar allow him freedom,to say otherwise is to be ignorant of his talents.

 

[airstream]

Quintana is definitely capable of taking a stage at TDF if Movistar allow him freedom,to say otherwise is to be ignorant of his talents.

Sorry I fail to catch connection between taking a stage and helping Contador.

 

[Telmisartan new]

Sorry I fail to catch connection between taking a stage and helping Contador.

They could be one and the same.

 

[airstream]

They could be one and the same.

Perhaps, I doubt Quintana can win a mountain stage from the big guns group, though

 

[Pricey_sky]

They could be one and the same.

That could also go against Contador, Quintana kicks for the line in the last 500m to win the stage and Froome follows in his usual mountain sprint style. Contador can't follow and loses more seconds in the sprint.

 

[Telmisartan new]

That could also go against Contador, Quintana kicks for the line in the last 500m to win the stage and Froome follows in his usual mountain sprint style. Contador can't follow and loses more seconds in the sprint.

Of course, were all speculating, could also be Nairito and AC coming to the finish alone after a vicious attack to drop Froome in the last 5km, just harmless theorising, nobody yet knows what will happen, i am imagining scenarios which might make for a more exciting race should Froome have a healthy lead after the first ITT.

 

[Afrank]

Do you seriously think he's able to be on the level of best of the best in the 1st Tour?

Well, he was already climbing with the best in the Vuelta, he's an enormous talent, and already considered by many (me included) one of the best climbers in the world (or will be one of the best in not too long); so yes. I definitely could see him capable of fighting it out up the mountains with Froome, Contador, and others if given the chance.

And the fact that it is his first Tour means there shouldn't be too much pressure on him or expectations for him to perform at that level. So even if he doesn't perform at that level it's not too big a deal.

 

[DenisMenchov]

How on Earth could anything stop Froome. In 2010 he was pushing mediocre sprinters on the ascents and in 2012 he podiumed both Tour and Olympics TT, if he keeps on improving like this he'll win 8 Tours.

 

[42x16ss]

A strong gust of wind on the Ventoux could do it. The guy makes Schleck and Van Summeren look fat.

 

[nick101]

How on Earth could anything stop Froome. In 2010 he was pushing mediocre sprinters on the ascents and in 2012 he podiumed both Tour and Olympics TT, if he keeps on improving like this he'll win 8 Tours.

you're assuming he's going to progressively get better as he gets older which is the opposite of what actually happens, unless you're cadel evans or chris horner. froome's 26 now so will probably reach his best at 27. meanwhile Quintana is only 23, and is already climbing better than the top climbers were at his age (contador, schleck etc.) , so if he keeps progressing, then he will surely be the next pantani by 27, plus he can actually put out a good tt. For contador to beat froome he has to bring his top form, any less and he won't win, this year he's been far from his best so that seems unclear atm. However saying that in the past contador hasn't been his best prior to the tdf (2009 esp.) so you can't really say that he won't bring his good form based on his season so far given whats happened on the past. In fact he's actually looking stronger than he was in 2009 pre tdf. But if he brings his 2011 giro form then he will be able to both match froome in the tt's and easily out climb him.

Schleck meanwhile is far from his best at the tds. Expect him to lose a minute on the first summit finnish at ax-3, and just hold on the mountain stage the next day, but I am certain he will return to form at ventoux and be prominent in the gc group that day, then on the alpe d'hez stage and the Annecy mtf, if he does reach good form, expect another repeat of the tourmalet with froome distanced.

 

[DirtyWorks]

This relies on most of the guys you put in bold to be within 2/3 minutes of Froome by that point, if not Sky would just let them go for a while and keep tempo. This is why it's important Contador doesn't lose minutes in the TT because it will take all the pressure of chasing off Sky. I don't think I've ever seen Sky chasing attack after attack as you put it.

I don't know that Contador's squad has the depth of Sky. Sky's got two real shots at the podium, Froome and Porte. If Uran rides to cause trouble, then that's three.

My hope is it's not over by the 7th day or so when we've had a few power previews. By day 14 there will be too many minutes between a Sky rider and whomever for the second podium spot.

Also, Sky has variously responded to attacks. It looks like they are all taught the same style of never going too far into The Red for the response. Just chug, chug, chug. It could be a weakness on the right hill.

As far as a chase goes, Sky's leaders haven't had to manage their power so carefully they are seeking any little bit to get back on.

 

[nick101]

it won't be I can guarantee. obviously in the tt sky could gain up to a minute on saxo tinkoff, but saying that saxo tinkoff does have a very strong squad, maybe not as strong collectively as sky. Kreuziger is looking strong at the tds, rogers is also looking good, plus there's roche, anker Sorensen, Paulinho, Nicki Sorensen, Jesus Hernandez. Saxo is going to have about 5 pure climbing domestiques compared to sky's 2 or 3. uran won't be in the tdf because he did the giro, probably same with henao. kreuziger, rogers and contador are all strong tt'rs so saxo will be able to minimize time loss to sky very well. looking at the teams individually, saxo are much stronger individual climbers (except porte and froome). saying this sky is based around being strong collectively which is more important. in 2009 I can distinctly remember both Sorensen's cleared the peleton from about 80 riders to 30 on the lower slopes of ventoux, sky will do this for saxo (rogers and kreuziger will certainly stay whereas porte and froome will be the only ones from sky left). as far as I can tell sky will only have a few pure climbers, the rest will be riders that will set a high tempo for a few kms on the final mountain then drop off. in terms of the strongest domestiques I see Moreno as better than porte, kreuziger and rogers are decent gc riders in their own right and at movistar have Quintana and costa who will be riding for valverde (both as strong as porte based on previous form). in terms of strategy team sky only have one strategy for the team and several options with tactics for froome. saxo will surely have riis for the tour. being the master tactician he is, riis will have significantly more options for the team as a whole compared to sky's one dimensional tactic of staying at one tempo. obviously froome and contador have similar options in terms of strategy tho.