What will be the decisive stage of this year's Tour?

[jobiwan]

Found one like this for last year, so here's one for this year!

Which stage will have the most to say about the final podium in Paris?
Not just the toughest stage.

My vote is for the stage to Plateau de Beille. It may not be THE toughest mountain stage, but I imagine that the final battle for the podium will become quite clear after this stage.

But here are all the stages of consequence.

Stage 2 (Team Time Trial):

Stage 12:

Stage 13:

Stage 14:

 

[jobiwan]

Continued:

Stage 17:

Stage 18:

Stage 19:

Stage 20 (Individual Time Trial):

Will the Tour be won in the Mountains, or will it come down to the Race of Truth?

 

[jens_attacks]

the stage with col d'aubisque.vino on the attack puts at the top 45 seconds to the favourites group,on the wet descent,they wrongly let basso at the front.inevitably the commentators all over the world will go-oh crash,mama mia caduta caduta,o la la terrible chute,arhghhhh caiiiiiidaaaaaaa.andy and alberto go down too,nobody is hurt even a little bit,but they lose three minutes to vino.vino with a maillot jaune is stronger than any pereiro sio in this world

and now back to reality,the stage up to plateau de beille,but even luz ardiden could be just like madeleine last year,it was decisive.

 

[Havetts]

Plateau de Beille, just because of the myth and cause there it will be shown who will destroy the mountains.

 

[Bike Boy]

Stage 14. just look at the profil! sawteeth... Also Plateau de Beille in the end. It sure bodes well for a great day of cycling. Stage 18 is definitely also a strong candidate. 3 mountaintops, all above 2000 meters. and with tired legs. It could do some serious damage. I'm sure the riders who barely survive stage 18 will hate stage 19. short and very intense. real torture, but should also be easier to survive, especially considering that the stage has been placed very far into the race.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Stage 20 ITT. Bertie will just try to follow Andy up the mountains.

 

[gilbertador]

Stage 12 is really tough with tourmalet and no descent before luz ardiden, think we ll be able to guess the people on the podium after this

 

[icefire]

It can be whatever. Last year Alberto put 45 seconds on Andy in the first ITT in Rotterdam. He didn't get more than that in any other stage.

 

[fergnago]

im picking stage 12 due to the chance of the top gc riders trying to put time into each other before grenoble.

 

[Moondance]

Close call between 18 (Galibier) and 20, the TT...

I ended up going for the TT, since I think the difference there will be biggest between the the podium men.

 

[UpTheRoad]

I voted 18, but I think 12 might be a good stage to make a big impression as well.

 

[PCutter]

Stg 18. Col Angel is under-rated and then there's 2 more HC's after it, and week 3 is when we'll see how much the Giro took out of AC and his team for me

 

[movingtarget]

I think that the small time losses on the TTT and bigger time losses on the ITT between the GC riders will be decisive because I don't see the top three riders being far apart on time at race's end even though there are some really difficult mountain stages. I don't see Contador making big time gains in the mountains simply because I don't think he will be at his best after the Giro.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Stage 12: Contador attacks on Luz-Ardiden. It's so often decided on the first MTF.

 

[Simply The Best]

I gotta say stage 12 looks good and as it is the first real mountain stage it will be raced hard. Should also be interesting as it is the first real test of contador and how well prepared he is. Although if he does crack I wouldn't expect him to do so until the third week

 

[hfer07]

Stage 19 is when AC is going to demolish the competition, so in the ITT, he'll be comfortable putting another 2 minutes on Andy

 

[ElChingon]

They play it so safe these days that the killer stages end up being a ride together and don't do anything odd stage keeping everyone together. I think this year it will be one of the off or supposedly off stages where we'll get some action or a move to change the standing. Well that's my guess.

 

[Anonymous]

I went with 14. It looks like a beast, and regardless of the "we don't want to get the jersey too early" crap we hear every year, this stage will be fought out to extend any time gaps gained on 12 (and depending on the TTT, 12 may just tighten things up again in terms of gaps.) I think this will be the stage where Contador either dances away (most likely) or we will see who has the best form outside of him. Then again, my skills of prognostication are notoriously suspect, so expect something else to happen.

 

[supercameron]

one of the flat stages with crosswinds destroying contador and his weak saxo team

 

[Simply The Best]

one of the flat stages with crosswinds destroying contador and his weak saxo team

Which stages are most likely to be affected by crosswinds this year anyway?

 

[just some guy]

Which stages are most likely to be affected by crosswinds this year anyway?

Stage 3

Stage 5

think thats it

 

[auscyclefan94]

Hard to say, I don't see the opening the mountain stage to Luz being ridden so defensively. COuld be any of the 4 mountain stages imo.

Another descisive stage could be one in the cross winds during the opening week. Other than the lack of ITT i quite like this route.

 

[brianf7]

The GC riders will need to be smart on the wind swept roads in Brittany that is where a big rider like Voit and Cancelara can cause some damage to likes of the climbers

 

[auscyclefan94]

The GC riders will need to be smart on the wind swept roads in Brittany that is where a big rider like Voit and Cancelara can cause some damage to likes of the climbers

Funnily enough last time the wind really split the race apart in the tour, it wasCancellara who made the front group yet the rest of his team was behind chasing because they had missed the split.

 

[Lanark]

Hard to say, I don't see the opening the mountain stage to Luz being ridden so defensively. COuld be any of the 4 mountain stages imo.

Another descisive stage could be one in the cross winds during the opening week. Other than the lack of ITT i quite like this route.

That's one of the nice things about this Tour, all four MTF's are really tough, the race could really be decided on any one of them.

If Contador is still really strong after the Giro, it will be decided in the ITT, because Schleck and Contador are too close in the mountains to make any big difference.

If Contador suffers from the Giro, he will fade away in the third week, and I think Andy will pull the trigger on the Alpe D'Huez stage.