What will be the decisive stage of this year's Tour?

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Unlike recent years all 4 mtf stages have the potential to be decisive.

Also the itt of course

 

[Scansorial]

I'd say stage 12. Stage 20 is a close second.

Contador likes to attack on the first big climb, and I think that would make sense for him in this race. If he can just get 15-30 seconds on Schleck I get the feeling that he can follow Schleck with ease. Better to put the pressure on Schleck and just play defense. If the Giro is going to come back to bite him, it will probably do so in the 3rd week, so why not get a cushion early?

Obviously it all depends on how his body reacts to the Giro. Will he feel fresh by stage 12 and slowly wear out, or will he feel a little stale early on and need to ride into some form?

I say stage 20 is a close second because (a) I could see Schleck and Contador within a minute of each other by then and (b) it will probably decide who gets 3rd place.

 

[hfer07]

Revising once more the parcours, I can say that apart from the MTF stages, there are some with sharp/steep finishes & bumps inbetween (stages 4, 6 & 8) where an unexpected attack can put in trouble the interest of some of the GT contenders.Apart form Contador, Evans can well use his "ardennes" abilities to surprise the rest of the contenders & gain time in advance-Samu can do the same ........we'll see

 

[Bike Boy]

Stage 3

Stage 5

think thats it

although stage 15 is in the third week it could also be tricky.

 

[veganrob]

It will take a couple weeks for AC to get his legs. He will just mark Andy till stage 14 when he starts to feel it and puts the pressure on. Stage 18, no holds barred, he proves once again beyond a shadow of a doubt he is the best. Race over. Final ITT is icing on the cake.
That being said, if Team Andy is smart, they would put the pressure on AC early and often before he gets it together. Alberto will only get stronger and more confident as the race goes on.

 

[movingtarget]

It will take a couple weeks for AC to get his legs. He will just mark Andy till stage 14 when he starts to feel it and puts the pressure on. Stage 18, no holds barred, he proves once again beyond a shadow of a doubt he is the best. Race over. Final ITT is icing on the cake.
That being said, if Team Andy is smart, they would put the pressure on AC early and often before he gets it together. Alberto will only get stronger and more confident as the race goes on.

I agree. But it could backfire on Schleck if he gets the yellow jersey too early in the race. That would be ideal for Contador as people are questioning the strength of his team. But Schleck has no choice. They would obviously like to take as much time as possible out of Contador in the TTT. If AS leads and can follow Contador in the mountains he still has another time trial to contend with and has the advantage of starting behind Contador. That's not to say that Schleck will have enough of a lead to hold off the Pistol.

 

[BillytheKid]

I voted stage 18, but these pre-race predictions are sketchy at best. It's impossible to predict. Stage 20, the ITT, because it's really the final stage, could see some big surprises. What seem like safe time margins, could easily melt away. The better ITT riders who are also fairly good climbers could try to ride a race that avoids losing too much time on the mjor mountain stages and close toward the end and try to take it all on the final ITT.

 

[movingtarget]

I voted stage 18, but these pre-race predictions are sketchy at best. It's impossible to predict. Stage 20, the ITT, because it's really the final stage, could see some big surprises. What seem like safe time margins, could easily melt away. The better ITT riders who are also fairly good climbers could try to ride a race that avoids losing too much time on the mjor mountain stages and close toward the end and try to take it all on the final ITT.

The final time trial is always an odd one. Everyone expected Contador to blitz Schleck last year and he didn't. Menchov did really well and some of the other GC riders were mediocre. There are always surprises in those stages.

 

[Midnightfright]

The opening ceremony. I fully expect vinos 1st attack to cone there