What's the LOWEST place each GC contender is likely to take?

[Ninety5rpm]

A novel (I believe) way to think about the Tour contenders is this: For each of the GC contenders, assuming no crashes, illness, etc., what do you think is the lowest place he is likely to take?

For example, I think Contador and Evans are unlikely to place lower than 3rd, and highly unlikely to place lower than 5th. Sastre too.

Menchov I'm not as sure about. Or Leipheimer or Armstrong. I'm pretty sure Armstong will be in the top 5, but am not as confident he will be in the top 3 as I am that Contador and Evans will be. Note that this does not preclude the possibility that Armstrong will win. It just reveals that I don't think that outcome is as likely as Contador or Evans winning.

What do you think?

 

[skippy254]

Wow, this makes my head almost hurt trying to figure out picks this way. Interesting thread though.

 

[jaylew]

Interesting question. I'll give it a go. I'd say lowest place likely for:

AC - 3rd
Cadel - 4th

Even if Lance somehow winds up being being Astana's leader, I don't see any way AC is off the podium - just too much talent and too focused on this race. Cadel is consistent and the course suits him. These two are the clear faves to me. Everyone else has a question mark somewhere.

Menchov - 8th
Sastre - 10th

Both are accustomed to 2 GTs a year but still, maybe the Giro wore them out a bit. Plus, the parcours doesn't favor Sastre and we might have some relative newcomers step up

Andy - 12th
Frank - 20th

Not enough mtn. top finishes for the Schleck bros and one could devote himself exclusively to the other. Also Andy still seems to have a problem avoiding that one bad day.

Lance - 15th

Toughie. I was surprised and impressed by his Giro performance. I really didn't think he would be able to get back to the top echelon of the sport so easily. But if Contador is clear leader, and LA shoots for a stage win and truly plays the loyal teammate...

Gesink - 15th
Kreuziger - 15th
Nibali - 20th

Not quite as consistent as others at this point in their careers and could wind up working for others.

Leipheimer - 30th
Kloden - 30th

Never know what you're going to get with Kloden, Levi might be overcooked and both will probably just be super-domestiques.

Rogers - 40th
Kirchen - 20th

Rogers may not recover from the Giro and we haven't seen enough of Kirchen this year with the injury.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

Interesting question. I'll give it a go. I'd say lowest place likely for:

AC - 3rd
Cadel - 4th

Even if Lance somehow winds up being being Astana's leader, I don't see any way AC is off the podium - just too much talent and too focused on this race. Cadel is consistent and the course suits him. These two are the clear faves to me. Everyone else has a question mark somewhere.

Menchov - 8th
Sastre - 10th

Both are accustomed to 2 GTs a year but still, maybe the Giro wore them out a bit. Plus, the parcours doesn't favor Sastre and we might have some relative newcomers step up

Andy - 12th
Frank - 20th

Not enough mtn. top finishes for the Schleck bros and one could devote himself exclusively to the other. Also Andy still seems to have a problem avoiding that one bad day.

Lance - 15th

Toughie. I was surprised and impressed by his Giro performance. I really didn't think he would be able to get back to the top echelon of the sport so easily. But if Contador is clear leader, and LA shoots for a stage win and truly plays the loyal teammate...

Gesink - 15th
Kreuziger - 15th
Nibali - 20th

Not quite as consistent as others at this point in their careers and could wind up working for others.

Leipheimer - 30th
Kloden - 30th

Never know what you're going to get with Kloden, Levi might be overcooked and both will probably just be super-domestiques.

Rogers - 40th
Kirchen - 20th

Rogers may not recover from the Giro and we haven't seen enough of Kirchen this year with the injury.

I'm glad someone understood what I was looking for. That said, Rogers 40th? Levi 30th? You don't think they're both top 20 for sure? When was the last time Levi got below 5th? When Vino beat him in the final stage? Interesting.

 

[Outsprinted]

I'm glad someone understood what I was looking for. That said, Rogers 40th? Levi 30th? You don't think they're both top 20 for sure? When was the last time Levi got below 5th? When Vino beat him in the final stage? Interesting.

Leipheimer was 18th 2008 giro as a super domestic to Bertie, and I don't think he'll be in the top 10. As for Rogers I don't believe he will do well.

 

[anubisza]

Armstrong as Lanterne Rouge. Now that I'd pay money to see.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Contador: 5th
Evans: 5th
Mechov: 4th
Sastre: 8th
A.Schleck: 10th
F. Schleck: 20th
Gesink: 15th
Kirchen: 30th
Klöden: 10th
Rogers: 12th
Leipheimer: 25th
Kreuziger: 15th
Vande Velde: 40th
Nibali: 30th

probably I forgot someone...

Edit:
of course...
Armstrong: 20th/DNF

 

[Ibanez]

Contador: Cant see him not on the podium, 3rd.

Evans: As with Contador, I dont think he will be any worse then 3rd.

Big Schleck: Appalling TT, so down in 15th. I think he will play second fiddle to Andy, but even working for him there is no way he will finish half an hour back or anything.

Little Schleck: Whilst I think he will probably do better then Frank, he has the potential to do worse what with his bad days and all, so 15th ish.

Uniballer: This one is hard. I can't help but think he is going to turn up and win the thing, but he may find himself lacking. He never rode two GT's even in his prime, and now he is a 37 year old guy who only started training hard a year ago. 15th.

Menchov: Really consistent and seems to be better then ever. 5th.

Sastre: Likewise as with Menchov, but I he is probabaly more prone to a bad day. Even if he is completely invisible, he won't finish worse then 7th.

Nibali: Could be great, did well at the Dauphine, but the tour is a different beast. 20th.

Kreuziger: Better then Nibali IMO even though he is younger. Doubt he will finish worse the 12th.

Pellizotti: I think he could ride really well and steal a stage, but could be Mr Anonymous just as easily. Dont think he has much pedigree at the tour, so 25th. That is very unlikely though, but we are thinking worst case scenarios.

Kirchen: Two top tens in a row makes me think he can do it again. And Columbia are stupid strong this year. 10th.

Rogers: Rode the giro just fine but I dont think he has it in him. 20th.

Vandevelde: I really don't think his very impressive 5th of last year is possible. Last year he could have easily won if he went with the attacks like he claimed he could and didnt crash on that descent. Kind of like Menchov in the respect. But has shown nothing, so 40th. Seriously.

Gesink: Will hopefully work his *** off for Menchov and still cruise home in the top 12. But could fade, I know he did the Vuelta last year but the tour is a different beast. 20th.

Leipheimer: Very consistent in recent years so no reason to think he won't finish in the top 10. But if he is as tired as he looked post giro he might not have anything in the tank. 20th.

And for a laugh

Cavendish: I reckon he will be between 15th and 10th from the lantern rouge...if he finishes.

Interesting way to look at things.

 

[jaylew]

I'm glad someone understood what I was looking for. That said, Rogers 40th? Levi 30th? You don't think they're both top 20 for sure? When was the last time Levi got below 5th? When Vino beat him in the final stage? Interesting.

You're probably right. I guess it just depends on how liberal you are re: "lowest place likely." Anyway, I guess I was thinking of the case where he works exclusively for LA or AC and has absolutely no GC aspirations.

 

[Moondance]

Contador: 2nd

I really can't imagine that two people could beat him.

Evans, Menchov: 4th

Both very good & consistent guys, but neither of them have the ability to strike true killer blows in the mountains a la Contador, Sastre & Armstrong of yesteryear.

Sastre: 6th

Consistent, but his team is probably not capable of fully supporting him.

A.Schleck: 8th

Probably his greatest risk is that his bro manages to do something special in the first mountain finish and is forced into a super domestique role.

Armstrong: 10th

How much will ride for Contador. I have him finishing way higher than this, but worse case scenrios do sometimes play out.

Kirchen: 12th

Not enough evidence so far this year, TdS stage win notwithstanding.

F.Schleck, Pellizotti: 15th

For Schleck i have the exact same rationale as for his bro. Pellizotti has yet to impress me in the Tour.

Kreuziger, V.Efimkin: 18th

The Liquigas 3-headed-monster will be confusing for all three of it's members, they can't all succeed. Efimkin flies nicely under the radar, but level of competition has grown since last year and have yet to see consistently good results so far this year from him.

Leipheimer, Astarloza, Gerdemann: 20th

Levi has a disappointing Giro, and will likely have to do too much work for his more famous two teammates. Astarloza will have the backing of a good climbing team, but a poor TTT chances and little evidence of his last two years' form. Gerdemann has the TT skillz and will have the backing, but i don't think he's fully ready to be a serious threat in the high Alps yet.

Gesink, Nibali, Pereiro: 25th

Both young guns will be likely drafted into service early on and won't be able to ride good GCs. Pereiro; I haven't heard his name on a results sheet in a long time. If you ask me Caisse should be backing L.L.Sanchez.

Vandevelde: 50th

He probably won't finish though. S--- happens and the Giro crash was poor luck. If i was him I'd refocus and maybe shoot for another Top-5 in the Vuelta perhaps.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Almost entirely agree with Jawlew. Pretty much summed it up.. I'd bump Levi to 25. Even overcooked and playing domestique, the course suits him well, and he's pretty consistent.

I'll add Pereiro, 20, and Arroyo, 30.

 

[phillop]

this is a stupid way to look at it, any one could fall off, any one lose huge time in the mountains

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Well, any prediction is damn stupid if you look at it this way isn't it?

 

[Mongol_Waaijer]

I think LA will surprise a lot of observers and fans by finishing outside the top 10, possibly even outside the top 20.

Even if (unlikely) he manages a 10% improvement on his form in the giro we need to bear in mind that the Tour is a harder race with superior opponents. ALL the best teams and riders are at the Tour giving it their all. Many top riders either skip the Giro or ride conservatively, and some teams aren't even invited in favour of Italian squads.

Remember the Giro Stage Pelizotti won when Lance rode out of the bunch to try and bridge up to Pelizotti on the last climb? Lance did nothing but lose ground on Pelizotti, then get caught by the GC contenders and dropped.

In a few days it won't be guys like Pelizotti he has to chase it will be Contador, Evans and the Schlecks.

The increased demands will outstrip any increases in condition that he will be able to have achieved, in my opinion.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Well, any prediction is damn stupid if you look at it this way isn't it?

Yeah, but this one really is sillier than most.