Question Which races will Pogacar win during his career?

[Krzysztof_O]

He'll add Romandie, Suisse and the Vuelta to his list of wins. He'll also win a fifth Tour, a second Giro, a third world title and a few more climbing classics before 2030. After that he'll have five more attempts at San Remo and Roubaix, finishing second or third every time.

Now let me try:
2027: UAE gets Seixas and Pog wins his 6th Tour

2028 and later: UAE makes Seixas the Tour leader.
Pog (released from his duty) exceeds 70 kg and becomes Paris-Roubaix dominator.
One year Pog will win the Vuelta (reducing his weight after classics campaign).
There'll be a lot of MSR but he'll always find his boogie man (or maybe he wins one just before retirement when nobody expects it).

 

[Peter von]

I reckon he'll win Vuelta at some point. Sounded like he might only have skipped Spain in 2025 because he caught a virus last week of the Tour. So sooner or later I reckon he'll end up doing it.

I don't think it makes sense for Pogi to make big changes to his season to fit in La Vuelta, since the tour is the tour and a Tour king winning races like PR/MSR is more impressive than a Tour king also winning Vuelta having already done a Giro-Tour double.

MSR: I think UAE will nail the race management at some point. They have the firepower to make the race hard enough, they just need to get the timing right.

I didn't tick PR, which might be silly because he was clearly the second strongest in 2025, so if he keeps doing it, surely it'll be his turn sooner or later?
But it's just not an easy race to win, even if you are one of the best. It could go either way tho.

 

[jono]

2028 is a key year in all of this. Pogacar will have to choose between the Tour and the Olympics and if he chooses the latter he will be able to prioritize other goals especially in the second half of his season.

2028 Worlds is a sprinters course and though he'll likely have to show up (it's in Abu Dhabi, after all) there is no need to come with any sort of form.

Vuelta? Sure. He can also put on weight for the spring and not have to be in any particular hurry to lose it.

 

[Rule #9 apostle]

The chase for the final two monuments could define the rest of his career. It would surprise me if he doesn't succeed at least once.

For MSR, the evidence does not go in his favour. It looks like he can't brute force it, even if he's kept trying through his peak years. But he hasn't got any other cards to play. As the biggest name, and without a sprint, there's no way to finesse it. Yet, trying to solve it seems to be a big motivation for him, so I'm sure he'll keep trying. I guess there's a chance the stars align someday, but I on balance I lean against it.

PR is the most attritional classic, Pog is the king of attrition. Last year he joined last minute, and I think he realised he's got a shot if he prepares thoroughly. MVDP will always have an advantage, but it's a race with so many variables that if he does indeed consistently target it in the coming years, it's likely he could get away at some point.

The Vuelta is simply a matter of priorities. Sooner or later chasing the final GT should become a strong motivation.

 

[Berniece]

Last year he joined last minute, and I think he realised he's got a shot if he prepares thoroughly.

That's not really true, he reconned it multiple times, starting already in February.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

That's not really true, he reconned it multiple times, starting already in February.

Pogi was definitely willing to do PR but he had to overturn Gianetti's decision (of skipping it) and it took some time.

 

[Red Rick]

What I mostly ask myself is if we're not overreacting to the semi succesful Cipressa attack (possible due to wind conditions) and/or the Roubaix 2nd place where many of the big splits were due to crashes.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

What I mostly ask myself is if we're not overreacting to the semi succesful Cipressa attack (possible due to wind conditions) and/or the Roubaix 2nd place where many of the big splits were due to crashes.

MSR has less than 50% of votes so probably no overreaction there, many people realize it will be difficult. As for PR he was very strong throughout the race with some big surges far from the finish. It's not like he found himself in top3 by accident. And he should have some margin of improvement there as well.

 

[Rule #9 apostle]

That's not really true, he reconned it multiple times, starting already in February.

Fair enough. But considering it was not on his initial season plan and team management was against it, I suspect he didn't systematically plan for it too far ahead. This year it's been an objective from the start. Also having raced it once probably helps a bit. The main point was that whereas in MSR he's already given his best shot several times, at PR there is still room for some improvements.

 

[jono]

Fair enough. But considering it was not on his initial season plan and team management was against it, I suspect he didn't systematically plan for it too far ahead. This year it's been an objective from the start. Also having raced it once probably helps a bit. The main point was that whereas in MSR he's already given his best shot several times, at PR there is still room for some improvements.

I think it's fair to take any advance public statements from team or rider about their race programs with a fairly big grain of salt.

 

[fenns]

Vuelta he only has to ride and finish the race to win it.

PR there's only really MVDP to stop him and Pog has a few years on him.

MSR - can't see how Pog drops all the sprinters.

 

[Berniece]

PR there's only really MVDP to stop him and Pog has a few years on him.

Not so sure about that. There’s also Pedersen and WVA

 

[Red Rick]

There's also wondering if Pogacar will ever get the Sagan treatment.

 

[TrekCyclist]

Folks, Hamburg Clyclassics is missing in the list
I want to see him winning this one solo, before considering him GOAT

 

[Netserk]

MSR has less than 50% of votes so probably no overreaction there, many people realize it will be difficult.

itd be lower still if i could vote no to all three

 

[Cance > TheRest]

I voted for all three, but it is with a bit of hesitance.

I agree that Vuelta is a certainty whenever he decides to ride it.

Milano - San Remo is also still possible even if it hasn't quite worked out the last couple of years. But last year he was oh so close to dropping MVDP. Also, UAE could play with multiple cards this year and have MVDP isolated in a Del Toro - Pog sandwich on Cipressa (that is, if Del Toro survives the fight for position). The options are definitely there to take a more tactical win, even if Pog is not strong enough himself to just outright drop MVDP.

As for Roubaix, this is the reace, where he is least likely to win because he doesn't have any physical advantage in a flat race compared to the likes of MVDP, Mads P, Ganna, WVA etc. He is also slower than most of them in a sprint, so he will have to rely more on lucky circumstances to win it.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

itd be lower still if i could vote no to all three

How could I overlook this?



Guys, an empty set of races won is now an explicit option. Please change your vote if you want!

 

[Red Rick]

I voted for all three, but it is with a bit of hesitance.

I agree that Vuelta is a certainty whenever he decides to ride it.

Milano - San Remo is also still possible even if it hasn't quite worked out the last couple of years. But last year he was oh so close to dropping MVDP. Also, UAE could play with multiple cards this year and have MVDP isolated in a Del Toro - Pog sandwich on Cipressa (that is, if Del Toro survives the fight for position). The options are definitely there to take a more tactical win, even if Pog is not strong enough himself to just outright drop MVDP.

As for Roubaix, this is the reace, where he is least likely to win because he doesn't have any physical advantage in a flat race compared to the likes of MVDP, Mads P, Ganna, WVA etc. He is also slower than most of them in a sprint, so he will have to rely more on lucky circumstances to win it.

How was he close to dropping Van der Poel? He was taking turns on Cipressa and made a counterattack on the Poggio

 

[Red Rick]

How could I overlook this?

Would you kindly think of the degenerate heathen hater thenk you bery much

 

[fenns]

Not so sure about that. There’s also Pedersen and WVA

he took a minute out of them last year on his first try - even falling off his bike - and neither of them are getting younger

 

[QueenStagiaire]

he took a minute out of them last year on his first try - even falling off his bike - and neither of them are getting younger

Pedersen punctured, though… for WvA on the other hand, I‘m getting on the washed bandwagon after this Tirreno

 

[Berniece]

he took a minute out of them last year on his first try - even falling off his bike - and neither of them are getting younger

Pedersen didn’t have any bad luck? WVA was in his best shape?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Would you kindly think of the degenerate heathen hater thenk you bery much

I forgot about one of eight possible subsets. As someone involved in combinatorial optimization for years, I should be ashamed of myself!

 

[AmRacer]

Pedersen didn’t have any bad luck? WVA was in his best shape?

Mad Mads has always bad luck and WWA will never again be in the same shape he once was.

 

[jotafap]

Pedersen can probably beat Pogacar, VWA not anymore, prime Wout is simply gone.
However, would be great if Wout could maintain a good level, not to end like Sagan... That was painful for me as a big fan of him.