Which races will Sagan win?

[maltiv]

Lol, GT leader for all the classics? The guy has one top ten in a single classic. If they make him sole leader they've really lost touch with reality.

I guess they think his win in TDU proves he can win M-SR. Because lets face it, beating two of the top MSR favourites in TDU, Javier Moreno and Ben Hermans, totally shows that one has the ability to win MSR

 

[movingtarget]

Sagan will be well marked but difficult to drop on climbs where most good sprinters will be dropped. I think his best chances are MSR and Flanders. I still think it will difficult to beat the better climbers at FW and AG. LBL is very difficult to win, not sure if he is riding Roubaix. I think a bunch sprinter will probably win GW but he would have to be included in the chances. He probably needs a harder course to win the GW. Incredibly talented rider but still can't see him dominating the classics yet.

 

[gruppeto993]

Are you talking about Juraj Sagan?

Im talking about cancellara not looking too impressive so far this season.

 

[will10]

I voted San Remo and Amstel.

If Gent Wevelgem is one of the tougher editions then he could win that too. But I see too many fast guys surviving.

 

[Ferminal]

Lol, GT leader for all the classics? The guy has one top ten in a single classic. If they make him sole leader they've really lost touch with reality.

Well, EBH has been their leader for three years.

 

[TeoSheva]

Sagan will win none. He'll be a marked rider every time, and everybody will try to get away from a group sprint. He don't have the team to respond to every attack.

he has a team:

 

[Ferminal]

Btw - how is he going to beat Michel Kreder in AGR?

 

[theyoungest]

Can't see it happening. Sagan is just too good. Perhaps if he crashes or something.

Also, Geraint Thomas is the leader for all the classics. Even for M-SR. It will be G's role to go with the attacks, while EBH will most likely simply sit on and wait for a sprint. A tactic which will never result in a victory if Sagan is there.

Then what's your tactic of choice? Let EBH attack before the favourites, and then burn his matches for the sprint?

Btw - how is he going to beat Michel Kreder in AGR?

The two Kreder brothers will morph into one and kill the beast Sagan. Just you wait.

 

[Jan the Man]

I think he is favourite for San Remo, Brabantse Pijl and Amstel Gold but it wouldn't shock me if you won any of them.

I would probably be most surprised if he won Welengem because the top sprinters like Greipel and Cav can survive the Parcours and be fresh as a lot of them may not have ridden E3.

 

[greenedge]

I will go Sagan for E3, RVV and BP. Last year at RVV he showed he can do a good ride and if it is a sprint with Fabian he should win.

I also think he has a big chance in M-SR, AGR and G-W, but those might be different and will have a lot of competitors.

 

[del1962]

Who do people think Sagan's main challengers will be for MSR?

 

[kanari]

Well, EBH has been their leader for three years.

No he hasn't. The last three spring seasons he was out in one and a half of them with injury, and if there was a leader in Sky it was Flecha with EBH and Thomas as protected riders.

Then what's your tactic of choice? Let EBH attack before the favourites, and then burn his matches for the sprint?

If you look at his biggest wins they have come from attacking (Wevelgem, GP Plouay, TdF stage, Giro stage) so I definitely think he should attack if he can yes. That's also how he won a silver medal in the WC by not waiting for a sprint.

 

[gruppeto993]

Who do people think Sagan's main challengers will be for MSR?

Didnt see a startlist yet but Cancellara, Goss, Pozzato, Degenkolb can all challenge.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Im talking about cancellara not looking too impressive so far this season.

T-A TT result from '12:
1 CANCELLARA, Fabian (RADIOSHACK-NISSAN) 10:36
2 BENNATI, Daniele (RADIOSHACK-NISSAN) + 0:12
3 MEYER Cameron (GREENEDGE) + 0:16
4 TUFT, Svein (GREENEDGE)
5 BOARO Manuele (SAXO BANK)
6 ROULSTON, Hayden (RADIOSHACK-NISSAN) + 0:17
7 STANNARD, Ian (SKY PROCYCLING) + 0:18

T-A TT result from '13:
GER 1 MARTIN, Tony (OMEGA PHARMA - QUICK-STEP) 10:25
ITA 2 MALORI, Adriano (LAMPRE-MERIDA) + 6
CRC 3 AMADOR BAKKAZAKOVA, Andrey (MOVISTAR TEAM) + 10
SUI 4 CANCELLARA, Fabian (RADIOSHACK LEOPARD) + 12
ESP 5 CASTROVIEJO NICOLAS, Jonathan (MOVISTAR TEAM) + 14
GBR 6 FROOME, Christopher (SKY PROCYCLING) + 15
NZL 7 ROULSTON, Hayden (RADIOSHACK LEOPARD) + 20

Cancellara's TT performance this year looks exactly the same as last year. Don't think Cancellara is in bad form, rather it would appear other riders have stepped up.

Granted this is a small test and by no means all telling, but still.

 

[Jan the Man]

MSR will have the ususal suspects-

Nibali, Gilbert, Cancellara can go for a long one.

If it comes down to a sprint the three i'd look at would be Sagan and Goss as they are the sprinters who will most likely survive the attacks.

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

MSR is his to lose and the change in the course in AGR plays into his hands (Moser will reel back anybody who got away on the Cauberg) so he is a fairly safe bet for both. E3, GW and RVV will depend on Boonen's form, but I expect him to win at least one (GW probably, RVV might still be a tad too difficult and E3 is Boonen's playground). Of course, if he shows up, Brabants Pijl is a very real possibility but I doubt he'll bother. I'd be surprised if he didn't win all those races during his career.

 

[taiwan]

Didnt see a startlist yet but Cancellara, Goss, Pozzato, Degenkolb can all challenge.

Degenkolb is an interesting one who I forgot about.

 

[rhubroma]

Even though he's the obvious favorite, I didn't pick him for MSR. You just never know with that race. Him winning a small group sprint isn't even a guarantee as there are a few guys who could be there who could challenge him.

Ahh, so true. Not to mention the distance, which can, at times, impose a brutal verdict.

Certainly, though, Sagan's got the class. I mean if Cav can do it!

I vote, therefore, MSR, and I'll go out on a limb with Flanders, before Amstel and various stages. Worlds maybe.

 

[Afrank]

I think he'll win MSR and RVV. I think he will at least be on the podium in AGR, but I think Gilbert will take it. I'll say GW as well, E3 maybe (will depend on how the other guys like Cance and Boonen are going at that point). Can't decide on BP.

 

[Panda Claws]

MSR is his to lose and the change in the course in AGR plays into his hands (Moser will reel back anybody who got away on the Cauberg) so he is a fairly safe bet for both. E3, GW and RVV will depend on Boonen's form, but I expect him to win at least one (GW probably, RVV might still be a tad too difficult and E3 is Boonen's playground). Of course, if he shows up, Brabants Pijl is a very real possibility but I doubt he'll bother. I'd be surprised if he didn't win all those races during his career.

Sagan beating Gilbert in AGR is far from a given.

 

[maltiv]

Well, EBH has been their leader for three years.

2010 - Injured, only rode M-SR (where his achilles problems started).

2011 - Was leader in M-SR. Had zero teammates with him after Cipressa. After that he got sick, and only had a free role in RVV where he attacked early (Flecha leader). Crashed out of Scheldeprijs and missed P-R.

2012 - Cavendish was captain for M-SR. EBH got the chance in RVV, rode reasonably well but used too much energy chasing solo after Vansummerens crash. Was the leader in P-R but failed since let's face it, that classic doesn't suit him at all.

So yea, let's not exaggerate. Certainly not been a leader in all classics for 3 years. It's still time to start performing though, if he can't do it this year either then it's time to give up really.

 

[Pentacycle]

2010 - Injured, only rode M-SR (where his achilles problems started).

2011 - Was leader in M-SR. Had zero teammates with him after Cipressa. After that he got sick, and only had a free role in RVV where he attacked early (Flecha leader). Crashed out of Scheldeprijs and missed P-R.

2012 - Cavendish was captain for M-SR. EBH got the chance in RVV, rode reasonably well but used too much energy chasing solo after Vansummerens crash. Was the leader in P-R but failed since let's face it, that classic doesn't suit him at all.

So yea, let's not exaggerate. Certainly not been a leader in all classics for 3 years. It's still time to start performing though, if he can't do it this year either then it's time to give up really.

He failed in MSR 2012 too, the argument of only having one teammate etc doesn't count here. I remember Goss winning the race on his own, after a crash took out half of the peloton. He's yet to show the enudrance you need to even ride top 10 in spring classics.