Which TdF's could Roglič have won?

[Peyroteo94]

The only way Roglic could win the 2020 TdF was by working against Pogacar when he had his mechanical instead of working to WVA.
It's very clear he didn't have the legs to attack Pogacar on Col de la Loze.

 

[aphronesis]

He won the ones he won. What more to it is there?

Say it louder.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Looks like netserk forgot to log into his cyclistabi account at first when voting

 

[Krzysztof_O]

2019 surely. If he focuses on the Tour instead of Giro and Vuelta (and avoids crashes) then it's his victory. His level was great while the Tour 2019 was the weakest in recent memory.
I didn't vote 2020 because he simply lost it (despite having a double advantage: super strong team and gap after echelons stage). No excuses, he had a worse day in that TT but it's on him.
In 2021 he would likely lose enough time in the cold Alps not to overcome the gap (Pogi's weaker moment on Ventoux not enough, Rogla likely wouldn't gain anything in the Pyrenees and he himself could have some weaker day as well).
From 2022 on Vingegaard or/and Pogacar were too good. In 2022 Visma's priority was probably Vingegaard anyway.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Looks like netserk forgot to log into his cyclistabi account at first when voting

He also voted "never".

 

[kingjr]

He also voted "never".

"...confusing the audience"

 

[Mayomaniac]

The only way Roglic could win the 2020 TdF was by working against Pogacar when he had his mechanical instead of working to WVA.
It's very clear he didn't have the legs to attack Pogacar on Col de la Loze.

The day afterwards he was dropping people on Glieres without even trying and that includes Pogacar. Had he actually pushed hard he would have gotten a sizable gap, but the Jumbo strategy of minmaxing and just doing uphill sprints + the TT and him not being the most offensive minded rider got in the way.

 

[Valv.Piti]

The day afterwards he was dropping people on Glieres without even trying and that includes Pogacar. Had he actually pushed hard he would have gotten a sizable gap, but the Jumbo strategy of minmaxing and just doing uphill sprints + the TT and him not being the most offensive minded rider got in the way.

But he didn't, and that was part of their defensive strategy throughout. Roglic lost 2020 fair and square, sothats out of the question IMO. He lost to the better rider - maybe not psyshically, but strategially and mentally Pogacar was better overall. Pogacar even lost time for no reason and had a much, much, MUCH worse team. No excuses in 2020. Roglic just didn't cash in where he could've in fear - his motto "no risk, no glory" comes across rather funny after this race. Or maybe thats where he adopted it.

Its 2019 if anything, and arguing 2021 IMO is unserious as well considering the Alps in that race. Roglic would likely have suffered the same fate as Carapaz, and then maybe those two would have reduced the gap slightly more in Grand Bornand than what it ended up being, but Pogacar was also flying in the time trials and easily controlled the Pyrenees for stage wins the same way we have seen peak Roglic do.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

He also voted "never".

That's exactly what I would do if I wanted to cover my tracks

 

[Netserk]

Looks like netserk forgot to log into his cyclistabi account at first when voting

D'oh!

 

[hrotha]

But he didn't, and that was part of their defensive strategy throughout. Roglic lost 2020 fair and square, sothats out of the question IMO. He lost to the better rider - maybe not psyshically, but strategially and mentally Pogacar was better overall

The whole point is that he could have won it if he had been better at strategy, which in turn would have made him better than Pogačar overall at that Tour. In fact, the reasoning only works because he lost to Pogačar fair and square

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

But he didn't, and that was part of their defensive strategy throughout. Roglic lost 2020 fair and square, sothats out of the question IMO. He lost to the better rider - maybe not psyshically, but strategially and mentally Pogacar was better overall. Pogacar even lost time for no reason and had a much, much, MUCH worse team. No excuses in 2020. Roglic just didn't cash in where he could've in fear - his motto "no risk, no glory" comes across rather funny after this race. Or maybe thats where he adopted it.

Its 2019 if anything, and arguing 2021 IMO is unserious as well considering the Alps in that race. Roglic would likely have suffered the same fate as Carapaz, and then maybe those two would have reduced the gap slightly more in Grand Bornand than what it ended up being, but Pogacar was also flying in the time trials and easily controlled the Pyrenees for stage wins the same way we have seen peak Roglic do.

Losing fair and square isn't incompatible with having been capable of winning under different circumstances (no bad Dauphine crash) and/or with different strategy (ride all out to take as much time as possible anywhere and everywhere). IIRC, Tom Dumoulin said Roglic's numbers in training before that Tour were terrible and he just barely rounded into form. I'm sure that's part of why he rode that way.

 

[Peyroteo94]

The whole point is that he could have won it if he had been better at strategy, which in turn would have made him better than Pogačar overall at that Tour. In fact, the reasoning only works because he lost to Pogačar fair and square

In your opinion what is a better strategy?
For me, his only way was to take advantage of Pogacar's mechanical and that's not strategy. That's luck. You can't make a strategy (something you prepare before the race) based on a future mechanical from your rival.

 

[Mayomaniac]

But he didn't, and that was part of their defensive strategy throughout. Roglic lost 2020 fair and square, sothats out of the question IMO. He lost to the better rider - maybe not psyshically, but strategially and mentally Pogacar was better overall. Pogacar even lost time for no reason and had a much, much, MUCH worse team. No excuses in 2020. Roglic just didn't cash in where he could've in fear - his motto "no risk, no glory" comes across rather funny after this race. Or maybe thats where he adopted it.

Its 2019 if anything, and arguing 2021 IMO is unserious as well considering the Alps in that race. Roglic would likely have suffered the same fate as Carapaz, and then maybe those two would have reduced the gap slightly more in Grand Bornand than what it ended up being, but Pogacar was also flying in the time trials and easily controlled the Pyrenees for stage wins the same way we have seen peak Roglic do.

Yeah, hard to argue about that one...

 

[Wyndbrook]

2006

 

[hrotha]

In your opinion what is a better strategy?
For me, his only way was to take advantage of Pogacar's mechanical and that's not strategy. That's luck. You can't make a strategy (something you prepare before the race) based on a future mechanical from your rival.

Honestly, I remember what I thought about his strategy at the time way better than I remember the details of the actual race right now, so the best I can do is tell you to search for the word "Roglič" in my post history, see if you can find my opinions from 5 years ago and whether or not you find them convincing