Who is next to dominate GT's?

[theyoungest]

IINM he hadn't specifically prepared for l'Avenir, I think he used it more as preparation for another race (WC?) but I could be wrong. IIRC he even said in an interview that it was a pity to come to such a great race and not compete for the win. Plus you must also consider that in the National Events he never really had a team

Bob Jungels is an allrounder, and he can indeed climb a bit, but he's on the wrong side of 70 kgs to ever be a GT contender. He was nowhere near the best climber in the U23s.

 

[Froome19]

Ok maybe Jungels will become a good GT rider if he improves him climbing and really focuses on it but there is a big difference between podiuming a Grand Tour and dominating the stuff. He has never shown he has the potential to dominate on the climbs.

 

[FF'Wilco]

If we are talking about Jungels climbing ability lets not forget that Matthews finished Avenir in top10 (with extremeley great field). He's far from being climber and always was, inst he ? But he's pure talent with big engine and that was enough to compete with real climbers. Same goes to Lecuisinier who won Ronde d'Isard with 68kgs at the age of 19.

 

[gustienordic]

This is my current ranking in order of GT potential talents: Quintana, Pinot, Talansky, ... , Joey D, TJ, Bardet, Jungels

Pinot & Quintana are the closest to equal. There are arguements for both. I rank Talansky so high because he can climb & TT. Pinot is a weaker TT'er and I'm not sure about Quintana.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

pinot could perhaps never win a gt, because his itt is so horrendous and his position on the bike is also very bad. he reminds me in many weays physically of andy schleck.

 

[Angliru]

pinot could perhaps never win a gt, because his itt is so horrendous and his position on the bike is also very bad. he reminds me in many weays physically of andy schleck.

Depends on his work ethic and commitment. He could make it such that he could limit his losses in stages vs the clock. Andy came close in 2010 and could have won a Giro or Vuelta by now if he wasn't so singularly focused on the Tour (and to a lesser degree on the Ardennes).

Edit: ...and I just noticed the "perhaps" in your post.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Depends on his work ethic and commitment. He could make it such that he could limit his losses in stages vs the clock. Andy came close in 2010 and could have won a Giro or Vuelta by now if he wasn't so singularly focused on the Tour (and to a lesser degree on the Ardennes).

Edit: ...and I just noticed the "perhaps" in your post.

andy also trained a lot on his itt, but his natural bike position is so bad that he can't fit in good aery position and still crank out power, same with ivan basso for instance

 

[Christian]

Hm yeah I can't find the interview anymore but I am pretty sure I once read one where Jungels said that he felt that he could compete with the best in the mountains in Italy ...

Idk Tony Martin's amateur results, did he have similar ones or mostly TT?

 

[Netserk]

andy also trained a lot on his itt, but his natural bike position is so bad that he can't fit in good aery position and still crank out power, same with ivan basso for instance

Basso still had some nice ITT results:

Giro '06 ITT stage 11

 

[serfla]

Just before Landis' Tour.
Nothing since then.

 

[42x16ss]

porte started cycling very late(in his 20) but rode amazingly as soon as he hit the scene. I remember how he hammered the baby giro itt

Porte was a relatively late transition from Triathlon, where he was really only competitive because of his bike leg. Porte isn't a natural climber, he's a "manufactured" one.

 

[Bushman]

pinot could perhaps never win a gt, because his itt is so horrendous and his position on the bike is also very bad. he reminds me in many weays physically of andy schleck.

I know it wasn't all good, but he did a reasonable second tt in the tour this year.

 

[Jason_Mercier]

andy also trained a lot on his itt, but his natural bike position is so bad that he can't fit in good aery position and still crank out power, same with ivan basso for instance

HAHAHAHAHA. Andy didnt train nothing on his itt. He only showed he was training for the big public but didnt train the itt seriously. About Pinot's fact, had Pedro Delgado a good aery position on the bike? No. But he improved on the itt. Has Joaquim Rodríguez a good natural position on the bike? No. But he improved on the itt. Excuses and things like "he will never win a GT" Only say you dont like Thibaut and it's ok. But dont write excuses. Thibaut doesnt need to improve his itt for win a GT. He's a superclimber talent. Love his sport and is a hard worker. He wont be a wasted talent like Andy Schleck. Yes, Andy, the guy which have wasted the best climber conditions since Pantani. The guy which never improved since 2009 due to short seasons and not training enough. See Nibali, see Joaquim Rodríguez. Both have improved year after year. Then see Andy Schleck. Andy Schleck ****ed their asses in 2009. Today we'll see if he can beat them. Pinot is not like Andy. No.

 

[RHRH19861986]

I think it´s not possible to predict what Jungels, Dombrowski and others will do, th start from zero by entering the pro peloton.

Looking at the guys who´ve already ridden one or two pro seasons, I don´t really see anyone who´ll dominate everything, but that doesn´t mean anything.

Ullrich was second in his first ever Tour in 1996, aged 22, whereas Contador and Rasmussen needed some time to become dominators.

Andy Schleck was maybe similar to Ullrich, being top nearly already from the beginning.

The problem with predictions is that GT top riders peak from 27/28 to 32, so we won´t really know before.

In the next years, it will remain between Contador, A.Schleck, Froome, Wiggins, VDB, Van Garderen, Kreuziger, maybe Fuglsang, and few others.

 

[Jason_Mercier]

Okay. I'll give you an instance of Van Garderen in top shape: the Tour de France, Les Belles Filles. Porte went full gas (having formed the bottom of a pile of riders the day before), and Van Garderen went bye-bye.


Bob Jungels can't climb with the best. He showed that in l'Avenir. If he becomes a GC rider it will be more like Tony Martin.

Lol. So your example is the only bad day of Van Garderen in all the TDF... Ok if this is an example i'll give you another example: Peyragudes. See Van Garderen and then Porte. Is this a good example? No. Because Porte was a domestique. But this example is like yours. You take the worst day of Van Garderen to take reason.... He was 46° that day. I'll make you a question. Do you think the Belles Filles day is the real level of climbing of Van Garderen? Do you think so? And if you think it i'll make you another question. If this day (where he finished 46° ) shows his real level of climbing why he stayed with the bests guys in Luchon and Peyragudes and attacked in the CDFer ascent where the other favourites could only stay at Sky wheel? Why he finished 5° in the GC? You'll say because of the Itt. And i'll respond you: How much ITT had the TDF? 400 kms?

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Ullrich was second in his first ever Tour in 1996, aged 22, whereas Contador and Rasmussen needed some time to become dominators.

Since when was Rasmussen dominating anything? Dieting? Looking silly on a TT bike?

 

[Jason_Mercier]

Since when was Rasmussen dominating anything? Dieting? Looking silly on a TT bike?

He was dominating the mountain classifications

 

[Dazed and Confused]

He was dominating the mountain classifications

yeah, and now that job belongs to Voeckler.

 

[RHRH19861986]

Since when was Rasmussen dominating anything? Dieting? Looking silly on a TT bike?

Tour 2007. If he wouldn´t have been taken out, he´d have dominated from there on, for maybe three or four years, close to Contador.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Tour 2007. If he wouldn´t have been taken out, he´d have dominated from there on, for maybe three or four years, close to Contador.

well, I know most of the stuff here is speculation, but that assumption is way beyond my imagination.

 

[airstream]

Tour 2007. If he wouldn´t have been taken out, he´d have dominated from there on, for maybe three or four years, close to Contador.

I don't think so. One thing is Contador obviously wouldn't have dominated the way he did if Rasmussen had win. Ones' tragedy gives brilliant perspectives to others. Still hope one day we will recognize details of that scandal.

 

[Parrulo]

i don't think rasmussen would have dominated much longer, if at all. contador already improved massively from 2007 to 2008 particularly his itt and even in 2007 rasmussen couldn't really drop contador significantly and he wouldn't be getting a 3 minute head start ever again like he did at the 07 tour. contador GT dominance was bound to happen one way or the other after his 07 tour performance.

also with the rise of andy schleck that would be another rider that could equal rasmussen on the climbing department.

 

[theyoungest]

Lol. So your example is the only bad day of Van Garderen in all the TDF... Ok if this is an example i'll give you another example: Peyragudes. See Van Garderen and then Porte. Is this a good example? No. Because Porte was a domestique. But this example is like yours. You take the worst day of Van Garderen to take reason.... He was 46° that day. I'll make you a question. Do you think the Belles Filles day is the real level of climbing of Van Garderen? Do you think so? And if you think it i'll make you another question. If this day (where he finished 46° ) shows his real level of climbing why he stayed with the bests guys in Luchon and Peyragudes and attacked in the CDFer ascent where the other favourites could only stay at Sky wheel? Why he finished 5° in the GC? You'll say because of the Itt. And i'll respond you: How much ITT had the TDF? 400 kms?

On a climb like Belles Filles, yeah I think that's his level. If the gradient rises above 6 or 7%, Tejay's in trouble. Fortunately for him, in the Tour that happens very rarely.

 

[Parrulo]

On a climb like Belles Filles, yeah I think that's his level. If the gradient rises above 6 or 7%, Tejay's in trouble. Fortunately for him, in the Tour that happens very rarely.

i have to agree with this, besides his bad day was the following day when iirc he was dropped on the second cat col de richemond by a big dropped being paced by a certain richie porte.

 

[RHRH19861986]

I think Rasmussen also would have improved massively. He won a MTF in 2003´s Vuelta, and then have a look at his Tours... Good in 2005, better in 2006, winner in 2007 (with massively improved ITT performances). If he would have continued like that, a Sastre wouldn´t have had any chance against him in 2008.

2009 and 2010, it would´ve been Contador vs Rasmussen, not Contador against Schleck.

2011 was a lame Tour, Evans was able to win. Evans was worlds behind Rasmussen in 2007, 2011 could have been the last year of Rasmussens Tour leadership, 2012 he would certainly have been on the way down, like Menchov was in 2012.

Rasmussen only started to find his best package in 2007, he would´ve had yellow years ahead of him.