Who will be the next home winner of a Grand Tour?

In 1991, Franco Chioccioli won the Giro and became the last home winner of a Grand Tour until Ivan Gotti regained the Giro crown for Italy in 1997. That means that 16 consecutive Grand Tours went by without a win by a home rider (note that the Vuelta was ridden before the Giro until 1994) and that stretch was by far the longest in cycling history.

Until now.

Vincenzo Nibali's Giro win in 2016 was the last home win of the Giro, and the last Spaniard to win the Vuelta was Alberto Contador in 2014. France does not even deserve to be mentioned here. That means that we are currently at 14 consecutive GTs without a home winner, and if it doesn't happen this year, it will be a new record.

It seems incredibly unlikely that the record will not be beaten but who do you guys think will be the next rider to win his home GT?

I don't see any realistic Italien prospects on the horizon. Nibali seems to have transferred from GT winner to meme object, Aru will probably never get his act that much together again, Formolo and Ciccone are good riders but will never win a GT. And I don't think Ganna will be able to transform enough even if he rides for INEOS who have a history there. But if Thomas could do it, he might as well. And the Baby Giro is consistently won by foreigners too.

For France, I see three possibilities (one of them a bit left-field). Thibaut Pinot is the most obvious one but I'm afraid he will never get as big an opportunity as in 2019. Alaphilippe is the other one. He has so much class and was so close in 2019 without having it as a target so I think he might have a chance. His transformation certainly does not have to be as big as some we have seen in the past. He is good on TT's, the world's best in hilly terrain, good on cobbles. They might design a route for him which coincidentally will live up to all the criteria they are looking for with regards to the zapping generation of TV viewers with short attention spans. The third option I see is Pavel Sivakov. I don't think it's totally out of the question that he will change his citizenship sometime down the road and he definitely has the talent to challenge for a win in the future. But there are two big problems for all French prospects, and their names are Tadej Pogacar and Remco Evenepoel. It's hard for me to imagine that their names will not be written upon most of the Tour winner's trophies in the next decade. A fourth option is of course David Gaudu but I'm not really feeling it with him.

For Spain, things look as bleak as they do for Italy. Of course we have Landa and Enric Mas but I don't think either will ever win a Grand Tour. Last year, Landa might have had a shot in the Vuelta which he inexplicably decided not to ride. If a miracle happens, Valverde may have a final opportunity this year (where he will be at the same age as Horner was when he won the Vuelta) but even I don't believe that. And they don't seem to have any talents emerging with the level to win the Vuelta.

So in conclusion, I really don't have a clue who it will be. I guess my best guess would be Alaphilippe but I honestly think the next home winner will be a rider whose name we don't even know yet.
 
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Of the names you listed I see Alaphilippe as one of least likely with Formolo and Ciccone. I think Mas winning La Vuelta is most reasonable since he already finished second in 2018 so the race suits him and I don't think we saw his absolute best last year since he came out of lockdown in such poor condition then was getting used to doing two consecutive grand tours for the first time.
 
Unless Nibali has one more great Giro in his legs, I think the chances of a Spanish rider winning the Vuelta are much higher than an Italian taking the Giro. Not because they would be the race favorite, but because Spain has more riders who could put themselves in a position to win when it’s an off year for the favorites.

Ed. What Pinot’s Goat just said:)
 
Spaniards have bigger chances than the other two. But as for now is Slovenia, Belgium, Great Britain and Colombia as the Grand Tour contenders. Dutch are out of the race with Dumoulin's temporal retirement.

Forgot to add Ecuador. Yes. Ecuador has bigger chances than France and Italy.
 
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I looked at the maps and it's clear that Alaphilippe doesn't stand a chance. He's from central France, like, real central. And GT winners from big European countries in these times have to come from the outer parts of a country, close to the coast, like Thomas from Cardiff, Valverde from Murcia, Nibali from Sicily. So obviously Enric Mas will be the next Spanish winner. Benoît Cosnefroy will win the Tour de France. Or Alexys Brunel. But I'm leaning towards Cosnefroy.
For Italy you could say that Ciccone is a good bet then, but have you thought about Pozzovivo...?
 
If Ganna continues to be as good as he is in the chrono, and has a few more stages like the win in Camigliatello Silano, then if there are no new genuine contenders coming through then RCS will release a Giro route with 100km+ of ITT and a bunch of tempo grinding climbs with MTFs at places like Sestriere west, Cascata del Toce, Campocatino and Madonna di Campiglio in the style of the 2003 Vuelta, like they did for Moser back in the day, and like how nine or ten pan-flat stages emerged in the Giro at the height of Cipollini and Petacchi's eras, or the Vuelta started scaling back time trials and turning every uphill finish into a garage ramp during the peak years of Purito and Valverde.
 
If Ganna continues to be as good as he is in the chrono, and has a few more stages like the win in Camigliatello Silano, then if there are no new genuine contenders coming through then RCS will release a Giro route with 100km+ of ITT and a bunch of tempo grinding climbs with MTFs at places like Sestriere west, Cascata del Toce, Campocatino and Madonna di Campiglio in the style of the 2003 Vuelta, like they did for Moser back in the day, and like how nine or ten pan-flat stages emerged in the Giro at the height of Cipollini and Petacchi's eras, or the Vuelta started scaling back time trials and turning every uphill finish into a garage ramp during the peak years of Purito and Valverde.
It's a little hard to say if you're serious or not.

But if you are, I strongly doubt that you will be right.
 
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If Ganna continues to be as good as he is in the chrono, and has a few more stages like the win in Camigliatello Silano, then if there are no new genuine contenders coming through then RCS will release a Giro route with 100km+ of ITT and a bunch of tempo grinding climbs with MTFs at places like Sestriere west, Cascata del Toce, Campocatino and Madonna di Campiglio in the style of the 2003 Vuelta, like they did for Moser back in the day, and like how nine or ten pan-flat stages emerged in the Giro at the height of Cipollini and Petacchi's eras, or the Vuelta started scaling back time trials and turning every uphill finish into a garage ramp during the peak years of Purito and Valverde.
Yikes, the Moser years were really the dark ages. I hope that Bagioli, Aleotti, Tiberi and Piccolo will show some gc potential in the coming years, otherwise your half joking pretiction could turn into a dystopian future.
 
If Ganna continues to be as good as he is in the chrono, and has a few more stages like the win in Camigliatello Silano, then if there are no new genuine contenders coming through then RCS will release a Giro route with 100km+ of ITT and a bunch of tempo grinding climbs with MTFs at places like Sestriere west, Cascata del Toce, Campocatino and Madonna di Campiglio in the style of the 2003 Vuelta, like they did for Moser back in the day, and like how nine or ten pan-flat stages emerged in the Giro at the height of Cipollini and Petacchi's eras, or the Vuelta started scaling back time trials and turning every uphill finish into a garage ramp during the peak years of Purito and Valverde.
And then Luke Plapp goes and wins it? :eek:
 
Once I was hoping for Pinot, but I think his chance was in 2019. Now the competiton against Roglic, Pogacar and Ineos are just too strong. Can't see any other French guys winning the next few years either.

I've always been a fan of many of the Italian GC-contenders from Simoini to Nibali, so I'm hoping for one of these. But can't really see who it is going to be. Perhaps Bagioli is the biggest prospect, but he could just as well end up as a classics rider.

So I'm going with Enric Mas. In one of weaker versions of the Vuelta without a Roglic, Pogacar or Bernal in form.
 
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I think Pinot is the most likely, but he's running out of chances to line his planets up. A Vuelta for Landa or Mas doesn't seem impossible but probably relies on some more likely winners not being there. But if there's anything predictable about this sport it's that it's unpredictable....

But there are two big problems for all French prospects, and their names are Tadej Pogacar and Remco Evenepoel. It's hard for me to imagine that their names will not be written upon most of the Tour winner's trophies in the next decade. A fourth option is of course David Gaudu but I'm not really feeling it with him.
Ullrich was supposed to win 5 Tours, Quintana was due a decade of dominance, even Bernal is being written off 18 months after the first of many Tours he was "supposed" to win - you never know what's around the corner.
 

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