In 1991, Franco Chioccioli won the Giro and became the last home winner of a Grand Tour until Ivan Gotti regained the Giro crown for Italy in 1997. That means that 16 consecutive Grand Tours went by without a win by a home rider (note that the Vuelta was ridden before the Giro until 1994) and that stretch was by far the longest in cycling history.
Until now.
Vincenzo Nibali's Giro win in 2016 was the last home win of the Giro, and the last Spaniard to win the Vuelta was Alberto Contador in 2014. France does not even deserve to be mentioned here. That means that we are currently at 14 consecutive GTs without a home winner, and if it doesn't happen this year, it will be a new record.
It seems incredibly unlikely that the record will not be beaten but who do you guys think will be the next rider to win his home GT?
I don't see any realistic Italien prospects on the horizon. Nibali seems to have transferred from GT winner to meme object, Aru will probably never get his act that much together again, Formolo and Ciccone are good riders but will never win a GT. And I don't think Ganna will be able to transform enough even if he rides for INEOS who have a history there. But if Thomas could do it, he might as well. And the Baby Giro is consistently won by foreigners too.
For France, I see three possibilities (one of them a bit left-field). Thibaut Pinot is the most obvious one but I'm afraid he will never get as big an opportunity as in 2019. Alaphilippe is the other one. He has so much class and was so close in 2019 without having it as a target so I think he might have a chance. His transformation certainly does not have to be as big as some we have seen in the past. He is good on TT's, the world's best in hilly terrain, good on cobbles. They might design a route for him which coincidentally will live up to all the criteria they are looking for with regards to the zapping generation of TV viewers with short attention spans. The third option I see is Pavel Sivakov. I don't think it's totally out of the question that he will change his citizenship sometime down the road and he definitely has the talent to challenge for a win in the future. But there are two big problems for all French prospects, and their names are Tadej Pogacar and Remco Evenepoel. It's hard for me to imagine that their names will not be written upon most of the Tour winner's trophies in the next decade. A fourth option is of course David Gaudu but I'm not really feeling it with him.
For Spain, things look as bleak as they do for Italy. Of course we have Landa and Enric Mas but I don't think either will ever win a Grand Tour. Last year, Landa might have had a shot in the Vuelta which he inexplicably decided not to ride. If a miracle happens, Valverde may have a final opportunity this year (where he will be at the same age as Horner was when he won the Vuelta) but even I don't believe that. And they don't seem to have any talents emerging with the level to win the Vuelta.
So in conclusion, I really don't have a clue who it will be. I guess my best guess would be Alaphilippe but I honestly think the next home winner will be a rider whose name we don't even know yet.
Until now.
Vincenzo Nibali's Giro win in 2016 was the last home win of the Giro, and the last Spaniard to win the Vuelta was Alberto Contador in 2014. France does not even deserve to be mentioned here. That means that we are currently at 14 consecutive GTs without a home winner, and if it doesn't happen this year, it will be a new record.
It seems incredibly unlikely that the record will not be beaten but who do you guys think will be the next rider to win his home GT?
I don't see any realistic Italien prospects on the horizon. Nibali seems to have transferred from GT winner to meme object, Aru will probably never get his act that much together again, Formolo and Ciccone are good riders but will never win a GT. And I don't think Ganna will be able to transform enough even if he rides for INEOS who have a history there. But if Thomas could do it, he might as well. And the Baby Giro is consistently won by foreigners too.
For France, I see three possibilities (one of them a bit left-field). Thibaut Pinot is the most obvious one but I'm afraid he will never get as big an opportunity as in 2019. Alaphilippe is the other one. He has so much class and was so close in 2019 without having it as a target so I think he might have a chance. His transformation certainly does not have to be as big as some we have seen in the past. He is good on TT's, the world's best in hilly terrain, good on cobbles. They might design a route for him which coincidentally will live up to all the criteria they are looking for with regards to the zapping generation of TV viewers with short attention spans. The third option I see is Pavel Sivakov. I don't think it's totally out of the question that he will change his citizenship sometime down the road and he definitely has the talent to challenge for a win in the future. But there are two big problems for all French prospects, and their names are Tadej Pogacar and Remco Evenepoel. It's hard for me to imagine that their names will not be written upon most of the Tour winner's trophies in the next decade. A fourth option is of course David Gaudu but I'm not really feeling it with him.
For Spain, things look as bleak as they do for Italy. Of course we have Landa and Enric Mas but I don't think either will ever win a Grand Tour. Last year, Landa might have had a shot in the Vuelta which he inexplicably decided not to ride. If a miracle happens, Valverde may have a final opportunity this year (where he will be at the same age as Horner was when he won the Vuelta) but even I don't believe that. And they don't seem to have any talents emerging with the level to win the Vuelta.
So in conclusion, I really don't have a clue who it will be. I guess my best guess would be Alaphilippe but I honestly think the next home winner will be a rider whose name we don't even know yet.
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