Question Who will win Paris Roubaix 2026?

[Tim Cahill]

Florian Vermeersch looking round with a big smile on his face wondering why everyone is mad about him winning is the funniest outcome so I'll go with that.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

You seem to have a pretty narrow definition of what a good outcome would be, so could you specify it for us?

Brute force defeated by Lo Squalo, who's retired unfortunately.

 

[vappa]

To me Van der Poel level looked good enough vs Pogacar on cobbled bergs to think he shouldnt be dropped on flat cobbles (which makes him #1 favourite due to his sprint). He lost more time only when he was dropped (he was more tired after repeated uphill efforts).

I think he didn't look that strong in Flanders. After the Molenberg, Pogacar pulled more within that group, after Kwaremont, Pogacar pulled 75%ish and harder, dropped MvdP on 3rd Kwaremont and made a big gap towards the finish. MvdP didn't impress me here but Roubaix is different

 

[Berniece]

Voted MVDP, hoping anyone except Pogacar, unless he wins it fair and square

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I think he didn't look that strong in Flanders. After the Molenberg, Pogacar pulled more within that group, after Kwaremont, Pogacar pulled 75%ish and harder, dropped MvdP on 3rd Kwaremont and made a big gap towards the finish. MvdP didn't impress me here but Roubaix is different

Again big difference flat vs uphill and we saw how important drafting was for MVP during Flandres. Pogacar will be very strong but MVP engine on flat cobbles is too much. BTW I dont think MVP will drop Pogacar either. Then again its Roubaix so they can be separated in another way (crash or flat tire), its a part of PR game.

 

[fenns]

Someone to win a velodrome sprint - probably MVDP - not enough gradient for Pog to drop him - Wout might be with them and also small chance of Mads

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Again big difference flat vs uphill and we saw how important drafting was for MVP during Flandres. Pogacar will be very strong but MVP engine on flat cobbles is too much. BTW I dont think MVP will drop Pogacar either. Then again its Roubaix so they can be separated in another way (crash or flat tire), its a part of PR game.

Add rider mistakes. Small mistakes are typically punished big times in PR.

 

[Lequack]

How's that coffee?

https://twitter.com/x/status/2042308070269706736

View: https://x.com/BikeBlz/status/2042308070269706736?s=20

 

[Heston]

Add rider mistakes. Small mistakes are typically punished big times in PR.

Probably the main reason why I favor MVdP. Just the best bike handling in the peloton

 

[vappa]

Again big difference flat vs uphill and we saw how important drafting was for MVP during Flandres. Pogacar will be very strong but MVP engine on flat cobbles is too much. BTW I dont think MVP will drop Pogacar either. Then again its Roubaix so they can be separated in another way (crash or flat tire), its a part of PR game.

You save a lot more energy sitting on the wheel on the flat than pulling, especially if you only pull 1/4 of the time

 

[Gratemans]

Voted VdP as it just seems most likely, but I definitely wouldn't mind a Colbrelli-like edition.

 

[42x16ss]

Van der Poel. Only because he's heavier than Pogacar and in this race there's no substitute for raw power

 

[canina82]

Voted for MVP. IMO Pogacar can't drop MVP in normal circunstances so I expect a sprint "mano a mano" where MVP will likely win.

 

[Gigs_98]

Head says MvdP but I have the gut feeling that Pogacar will actually do it

 

[logeardaddy]

MvdP will get away. Ganna will tow everyone back. Philipsen will win the sprint.

 

[Oldman]

The company behind the technolofy went bancrupt in January: https://www.pinkbike.com/news/grava...-low-sales-of-its-on-board-tire-inflator.html
So UCI's ban had probably nothing to do with cost, but rather availability.

JV countered that the company had emerged and was still actively marketing the product.

 

[Oldman]

No better performance certification than being banned by UCI!

I'm surprised their tech squad could look up from the fixation on handlebar width as a safety issue. While ignoring constant injuries and complaints about race course risks.

 

[bah]

Head says MvdP but I have the gut feeling that Pogacar will actually do it

I have that awful sinking feeling too.

 

[tobydawq]

Voted MVDP, hoping anyone except Pogacar, unless he wins it fair and square

Unlike all his other wins where he cheats himself to victory or what is this even supposed to mean?

 

[Berniece]

Unlike all his other wins where he cheats himself to victory or what is this even supposed to mean?

He's lucky in 1-day races sometimes. I rather see him win Paris-Roubaix like he won all of his GT's.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

He's lucky in 1-day races sometimes.

When exactly? The only monument where you could argue his win was thanks to the bad luck of others is Sanremo this year and even that's a stretch. On the flip side, at Liège he got screwed out of a 50/50 shot at winning by Alaphilippe in 2020 and crashed out in 2023.

 

[canina82]

When exactly? The only monument where you could argue his win was thanks to the bad luck of others is Sanremo this year and even that's a stretch. On the flip side, at Liège he got screwed out of a 50/50 shot at winning by Alaphilippe in 2020 and crashed out in 2023.

And don't forget 2022 LBL.
MSR being a monument where he was lucky is really one of the craziest things I ever read on this forum. The only rider who was more hampered by Pogacar's crash was Wout, all others had a advantage over Pogacar.

 

[tobydawq]

And don't forget 2022 LBL.
MSR being a monument where he was lucky is really one of the craziest things I ever read on this forum. The only rider who was more hampered by Pogacar's crash was Wout, all others had a advantage over Pogacar.

Not Van der Poel as he hurt himself more than Pogi.

I think Pogi's only real luck apart from that in MSR was that no team understood the assignment on Cipressa. Ride fast and block the road (I know that those two in combination are hard to accomplish but nobody did much to prevent him from getting to the front really easily and quickly).

 

[Rob5091]

Fred Wright to finally get his pro win!

 

[Berniece]

When exactly? The only monument where you could argue his win was thanks to the bad luck of others is Sanremo this year and even that's a stretch. On the flip side, at Liège he got screwed out of a 50/50 shot at winning by Alaphilippe in 2020 and crashed out in 2023.

Not having the proper opposition due to crashes during the season or in the year, happens quite often. It's not his fault, just lucky is all I'm saying.