Who will win the criterium du dauphine

[movingtarget]

Wiggins will do what comes naturally and play "follow the leader." To me he always looks better when he does not have to attack because he usually attacks and cracks later on. He will now be hard to beat. Vino and Rodriguez are probably the riders who will be the most aggressive while looking to win stages. Will Evans and Brajkovic want to kill themselves trying to win the Dauphine, three weeks before the Tour ? Evans has finished second in this race twice before but I'm not sure how motivated he will be win it. Wiggins climbing form is pretty erratic. One bad stage and he could be in trouble.

 

[Angliru]

Wiggins looking to defend lead after solid ride in Grenoble

in the article he does not mention Cadel or Jani once





Smart or doesn´t rate Jani and Evans or

what are your thoughts

I think that if J-rod andor Gesink want a stage and attack it is the only chance for Cadel or Jani to take the win, but it will be a great test for BMC as a team set the tempo on the climbs see if they can work as a team

ps BMC want the win.

Well he did say "and the other guys" more than once, so I would say he is not underestimating any of the contenders. He simply mentioned by name the 2 riders that were 1-2 in the standings prior to the ITT.

 

[Angliru]

What proof is there that Jani has peaked for the Dauphine this year? If anything if TT was under par compared with last year. I think like many of the contenders, he is looking at the Tour more than the DL.

+1
How can anyone, especially us casual fans, determine that a rider has "peaked" for the Dauphine based on general observation? I recall that Brajkovic was more focused on building for the Tour than actually defending his Dauphine title. Especially riding for Bruyneel, peaking for the Dauphine is not even a possibility with him already supporting Brajkovic as one of his candidates for Tour leadership.

 

[cineteq]

Evans has finished second in this race twice before but I'm not sure how motivated he will be win it. Wiggins climbing form is pretty erratic. One bad stage and he could be in trouble.

I don't think his motivation is the issue. I'm pretty sure he would want to win it, but not at the expense of getting off his training for TdF. My guess he is going to try and be with the leaders in the mountains, and if Wiggins cracks (as expected), he then will take the win.

 

[movingtarget]

I don't think his motivation is the issue. I'm pretty sure he would want to win it, but not at the expense of getting off his training for TdF. My guess he is going to try and be with the leaders in the mountains, and if Wiggins cracks (as expected), he then will take the win.

I hope you are right. It should be interesting over the next few days.

 

[Winterfold]

La Collet d'Allevard is a very steep climb! Big time gaps will appear even if it is ridden timidly. I doubt an attack from way out will do the damage.

yeah sure - its a bit more than half of Ventoux in distance and about as steep as the horrible bit in the middle - but he can hang in on that kind of stuff - if he is in 2009 form.

dwlsonic - hopefully not - but he looks a different rider to the Tour last year - much more 2009 vintage - but unlike Carlton I still think Wiggo making Top 5 in the Tour is going to be very hard.

I think Rodrigues could do some real damage but really should be too far back for GC so I would let him go and take a stage and keep the gap in check.

They will have a problem if eg Cuddles follows that kind of aggresive attack and Wiggo blows following, then it could all be over.

 

[buster1]

I think that as already has been said Cuddles best shot is a for the likes of J-Rod to toughen up the race and well see what Wiggo does best and drop off the back.

Whether Cuddles is peaking for the TDF or not he is still a far better climber than Wiggins ever is or will be!

 

[seaby71]

i think cuddles will be more aggressive than in past years. He will attack. He knows he needs to be more aggressive especially in the tour and these last few days are a good chance to test out his new tactics. Since he was world champ he is a very different rider mentally now

 

[auscyclefan94]

yeah sure - its a bit more than half of Ventoux in distance and about as steep as the horrible bit in the middle - but he can hang in on that kind of stuff - if he is in 2009 form.

dwlsonic - hopefully not - but he looks a different rider to the Tour last year - much more 2009 vintage - but unlike Carlton I still think Wiggo making Top 5 in the Tour is going to be very hard.

I think Rodrigues could do some real damage but really should be too far back for GC so I would let him go and take a stage and keep the gap in check.

They will have a problem if eg Cuddles follows that kind of aggresive attack and Wiggo blows following, then it could all be over.

They raced up Ventoux quite timidly and that stage to Ventoux didn't have much climbing before the final climb.

La Collet d'Allervard is actually at 8.2% were as Ventoux averages 7.6%

 

[movingtarget]

+1
How can anyone, especially us casual fans, determine that a rider has "peaked" for the Dauphine based on general observation? I recall that Brajkovic was more focused on building for the Tour than actually defending his Dauphine title. Especially riding for Bruyneel, peaking for the Dauphine is not even a possibility with him already supporting Brajkovic as one of his candidates for Tour leadership.

It will be interesting to see how the R/Shack riders go in the Tour. Horner surprised me last year and Brajkovic could do well. I think Kloden may struggle as his climbing is not what is was but the time trial stage should help them and Leipheimer as they all do well in the TT. They would have been hoping for a longer time trial on a similar course. Wiggins should also make up good time in the TT but I doubt it will be enough to get him on the podium.

I will still be surprised to see anyone from R/Shack making the top 5 in the Tour.

 

[Archibald]

I don't think his motivation is the issue. I'm pretty sure he would want to win it, but not at the expense of getting off his training for TdF. My guess he is going to try and be with the leaders in the mountains, and if Wiggins cracks (as expected), he then will take the win.

agree, it's not like Evans ever just soft pedalled his way about any race. BMC need the win, so they'll be pushing for it.
Tactically, I think he'll do better than previous years - he seems to have got that side right in the past 12-18 months. So I don't think he'll go into the red as readily, but pick the right moment and I think he'll trump Wiggins when he does.
Would be good to see him add it to his palmares.

Brajkovic is the dark horse for mine though.

 

[Matty_Tucks]

It will be interesting to see how the R/Shack riders go in the Tour. Horner surprised me last year and Brajkovic could do well. I think Kloden may struggle as his climbing is not what is was but the time trial stage should help them and Leipheimer as they all do well in the TT. They would have been hoping for a longer time trial on a similar course. Wiggins should also make up good time in the TT but I doubt it will be enough to get him on the podium.

I will still be surprised to see anyone from R/Shack making the top 5 in the Tour.

Remember Horner can climb like Contador though

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

La Collet d'Allervard is actually at 8.2% were as Ventoux averages 7.6%

Yeah... except the average part of the final 5 km of the Ventoux is also over 8% with a horrid wind in your face and the 9 km in the woods is well over 9%. Combine those two parts and you have more and steeper km's on the Ventoux, aside from the fact that the total climb is about double of Allevard as well.

After passing Chalet Renard, you (if you are a regular mortal) will have been climbing for well over an hour with no chance of really catching your breath, and the the final part is really heavy, not because it is insanely steep, but because it is steep, with usually a headwind, and that after having done over 15 km of climbing already.

There is no comparison.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Yeah... except the average part of the final 5 km of the Ventoux is also over 8% with a horrid wind in your face and the 9 km in the woods is well over 9%. Combine those two parts and you have more and steeper km's on the Ventoux, aside from the fact that the total climb is about double of Allevard as well.

After passing Chalet Renard, you (if you are a regular mortal) will have been climbing for well over an hour with no chance of really catching your breath, and the the final part is really heavy, not because it is insanely steep, but because it is steep, with usually a headwind, and that after having done over 15 km of climbing already.

There is no comparison.

I understand Ventoux is harder but was just stating that overall the Dauphine stage to La Collet d Alervard is harder on paper. The Ventoux stage in 2009 had Ventoux and that's all. Saturday's dauphine stage has quite a few tough climbs before it.

 

[movingtarget]

Remember Horner can climb like Contador though

I have never liked beetroot but I am prepared to mark it down as "another youthful error !"

 

[movingtarget]

agree, it's not like Evans ever just soft pedalled his way about any race. BMC need the win, so they'll be pushing for it.
Tactically, I think he'll do better than previous years - he seems to have got that side right in the past 12-18 months. So I don't think he'll go into the red as readily, but pick the right moment and I think he'll trump Wiggins when he does.
Would be good to see him add it to his palmares.

Brajkovic is the dark horse for mine though.

Why would he be a dark horse when he won this race last year ? If anything he was one of the favourites at the start and still is. I agree about Evans, he always races to win and BMC do need it. Even if he did win, with his later start to the season and less racing miles in the legs, it may not effect his TDF too much. It's not as if he has ridden a difficult three weeks in the Giro.

 

[JA.Tri]

Jani or Cadel.

In spite of his 4th in TdF still don't rate Wigans. However Jani and Cadel may be just happy to test their legs (within training parameters) on the climbs and Wigans has already stated he is going for it!

We (well I at least ) have no idea where any of them are (except for Ivan Basso) in their "peaking" schedule.

I noted that Cadel lost little if any time in the last sector of the TT.

As Boomcie intimated I know nothing (to quote Sgt S).

 

[simoni]

I understand Ventoux is harder but was just stating that overall the Dauphine stage to La Collet d Alervard is harder on paper. The Ventoux stage in 2009 had Ventoux and that's all. Saturday's dauphine stage has quite a few tough climbs before it.

Ventoux had three weeks before it!!

You can make a case either way...I'm a brit and a Wiggins fan (he lives not too far away) and I doubt he'll win the dauphine unless hes better now than he was in 2009 on the climbs. He could be - we just don't know either way yet.

The following stage is also a tough one with the Glandon and La Toussuire. This years Dauphine winner will be a worthy one.

 

[Archibald]

Why would he be a dark horse when he won this race last year ? If anything he was one of the favourites at the start and still is. I agree about Evans, he always races to win and BMC do need it. Even if he did win, with his later start to the season and less racing miles in the legs, it may not effect his TDF too much. It's not as if he has ridden a difficult three weeks in the Giro.

probably the wrong expression - for me I see Evans winning, but Brajkovic as the only one who may upset that and trump Evans.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I understand Ventoux is harder but was just stating that overall the Dauphine stage to La Collet d Alervard is harder on paper. The Ventoux stage in 2009 had Ventoux and that's all. Saturday's dauphine stage has quite a few tough climbs before it.

Sorry, i didn't see you wrote something at the top of your post. It came across as if you were comparing the two.

 

[Winterfold]

So after today I feel confident to say Cuddles, Vino, VDB2 will not beat Wiggo in this race as he is good enough that it will take too much effort and they wont risk it this close to Tour.

Brajkovic is another matter - he finished in elite group without being mentioned in the online commentary and he could be very dangerous tomorrow.

Wiggo does look good though. I hope he and Sky go balls out for the win here and look at it as a stepping stone. Giving up on a win way bigger than anything else they have would be arrogant ina way they haven't shown they have warned the right to be...

 

[El Pistolero]

So after today I feel confident to say Cuddles, Vino, VDB2 will not beat Wiggo in this race as he is good enough that it will take too much effort and they wont risk it this close to Tour.

Brajkovic is another matter - he finished in elite group without being mentioned in the online commentary and he could be very dangerous tomorrow.

Wiggo does look good though. I hope he and Sky go balls out for the win here and look at it as a stepping stone. Giving up on a win way bigger than anything else they have would be arrogant ina way they haven't shown they have warned the right to be...

Wiggo expects to finish around third place. He'd be happy if that was his result.

 

[Winterfold]

El Pistolero

I agree coming in to the race podium was a result.

I think the win is doable with a big big effort now ( will take the team too).

It might be that the psychological boost from winning would outweigh the physical effort required - I think they should go balls out for it

 

[Frosty]

Sky have quite a strong team here. I dont think the early climbs will be that bad tomorrow - later on, the Grand Cucheron average percent is a little misleading though - the last 9km average 8%.

http://www.climbbybike.com/climb.asp?Col=&qryMountainID=10938

I would expect some teams to try and blow things up here so that Wiggo is isolated. Uran could well be a key man as he is the best climber out of Wiggins' team-mates. The others can do well on the less steep climbs but once the 7, 8, 9% starts then they wont be up there (apart from maybe Zandio?)

Sunday will be a bit of an epic day too but I think Wiggins will do enough to just hold on for the win.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Ventoux had three weeks before it!!

I think ACF was referring to the Dauphiné 2009, where Szmyd gained his first and only career victory after being waited for by Valverde, who could potentially have added another handful of seconds to his eventual slender lead, and Evans had a sulk at nobody helping him pull Szmyd and Valverde back.

It was the last hurrah of the "old" Evans, before he finally snapped and realised that if he wants something he has to go out and get it himself.

And Ventoux is a hard enough climb that it doesn't really need much if anything before it.