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Girmay has a good chance to pull it off now. Would be the biggest surprise winner since Petacchi I think.
Looking even better now for Girmay.
Please god let them get back to the bright green jersey instead of this forest green thing
Who's the dumb dumb who created this poll but didn't include Girmay?
Only possible if Girmay crashes out or gets relegated and scores no points. Short of that, it's his.
I'd say it's possible but seems unlikely with the way Girmay has been sprinting since he's been mostly beating guys who in the past would have been faster in bunch sprints. Jasper needs to win 2-3 more stages and he needs guys like Groenewegen, Jakobsen, De Lie, Bauhaus, Bennett, Gaviria, Cav, WVA, etc...to finish ahead of Bini but for the most part that hasn't been happening. And while I haven't looked at the profiles closely, there may still be opportunities for Girmay to score intermediate points where Philipsen can't à la Sagan.
Yeah half of the race is left so plenty of sprint points in there for anything to happen. Philipsen can ride hard outside of bunch sprints too
I think he can, and hope he will. But it will be hard, he needs to win almost all of them, assuming he’ll barely take points during the stage
Not impossible, but not very likely either. Wanty look really motivated to go for the Green jersey, they send riders up the road to scoop up points yesterday, they go into sprints really dedicated.
Phillipsen isn't Wout or Sagan, he'll have a tough time taking a lot of points on the harder stages without having Girmay in his wheel all day. But Phillipsen is a tough cookie, so he most definitely should give it a go and I really hope he makes it a contest in third week.
Philipsen lost a point to Girmay today. Looks like it is all over with a 76-point difference.
I really respect Coquard. He never gives up. Look at his final Points position in the 5 TDF's that he finished. 3-5-6-4-3 and destined for another 3rd. Perhaps this year the top two will DNF or OTL in the last week and he will at last take the crown he deserves (for trying).
I really respect Coquard. He never gives up. Look at his final Points position in the 5 TDF's that he finished. 3-5-6-4-3 and destined for another 3rd. Perhaps this year the top two will DNF or OTL in the last week and he will at last take the crown he deserves (for trying).
Armchair Cyclist
Moderator
So what odds was Girmay to win this before the Tour started, did anyone notice?
Philipsen got a good amount of points back today. Not much chance to get points in the finish anymore, but here's how intermediate sprints look.
17: The breakaway should be ahead, but can't see any chance of just one of Girmay/Philipsen to be there. But sprinters should have a good chance to say with the peloton until the sprint.
18: Two 3rd category climbs and one uncategorized climb before. Girmay should be stronger in the preceding terrain, but not certain either can take part.
19: An easy one, Alpecin will probably do everything so that breakaway doesn't form before the sprint.
20: Halfway through the third tougher climb, I can't see either of top two participating.
17: The breakaway should be ahead, but can't see any chance of just one of Girmay/Philipsen to be there. But sprinters should have a good chance to say with the peloton until the sprint.
18: Two 3rd category climbs and one uncategorized climb before. Girmay should be stronger in the preceding terrain, but not certain either can take part.
19: An easy one, Alpecin will probably do everything so that breakaway doesn't form before the sprint.
20: Halfway through the third tougher climb, I can't see either of top two participating.
32 points ahead.
Stage 17: 20 points at km 115 (break should get there over peloton if a normal stage)
Stage 18: 20 points at km 84 (after 3x climbs at 2-4km and ~6%)
Stage 19: 20 points at km 21.5 (nothing of note before it)
Stage 20: 20 points at km 88.5 (half-way up 3rd climb of the day, basically impossible for it to be contended for Green)
So really we have 60 points up for grabs if things go close to perfectly for Alpecin.
IF Philipsen won all 3 that are possible?
That puts him on 404.
Biniam would need to get 29 points to get 405 and win.
29= 6th, 6th, 7th in the 3 sprints that Philipsen can win.
Yeh, it is over unless Bini does not finish the tour.
Stage 17: 20 points at km 115 (break should get there over peloton if a normal stage)
Stage 18: 20 points at km 84 (after 3x climbs at 2-4km and ~6%)
Stage 19: 20 points at km 21.5 (nothing of note before it)
Stage 20: 20 points at km 88.5 (half-way up 3rd climb of the day, basically impossible for it to be contended for Green)
So really we have 60 points up for grabs if things go close to perfectly for Alpecin.
IF Philipsen won all 3 that are possible?
That puts him on 404.
Biniam would need to get 29 points to get 405 and win.
29= 6th, 6th, 7th in the 3 sprints that Philipsen can win.
Yeh, it is over unless Bini does not finish the tour.
It's over unless Bini is hurt, which seems very plausible. I can absolutely see a scenario where Philipsen gets into the break tomorrow while Bini is unable to do so. That would bring it down to a 12 point lead. Then the question becomes if Philipsen can get points on stage 18 and if Bini is just capable of contesting the sprint on stage 19.
I could see either of the two getting something out of the finish on stage 18. None of the climbs are that hard, so with some teammates to support in the break with you you could hoover up enough of the better climbers in the finale to be sprinting for something like 5th.
Unlikely that Philipsen wins it unless Bini is suffering from the crash. He didn't look in great shape after the finish today but it would be a shame if he were to lose the jersey because of that.
I hope Girmay doesn’t lose it from the crash. Tomorrow and Thurs will be a big test if he and the team can keep Philipsen in check.
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I know you live in different time zone, but I don't think the time difference is more than 17 hours.
Oh yeah today is Tuesday. Well he has to be doubly ready tomorrow
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