Who will win the Olympic ITT?

[Badeend]

Phinney will win this one, easily

 

[Montanus]

Just a reminder.

2011 WC ITT 46.4k:
1 Tony Martin (Germany) 0:53:43.85
2 Bradley Wiggins (Great Britain) 0:01:15.83
3 Fabian Cancellara (Switzerland) 0:01:20.59
15 Taylor Phinney (United States of America) 0:03:52.58

Phinney winning would rely on a significant improvement in the long TT.
I think he will do well, but winning? Nah.

 

[iZnoGouD]

2011 Vuelta ITT stage 10 47km

Stage 10 results
1 Tony Martin (Ger) HTC-Highroad 0:55:54
2 Christopher Froome (GBr) Sky + 0:59
3 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky + 1:22
4 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Leopard Trek + 1:27
5 Taylor Phinney (USA) BMC Racing + 1:33
6 Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Leopard Trek + 1:37
7 Tiago Machado (Por) RadioShack + 1:54
8 Janez Brajkovic (Slo) RadioShack + 1:56
9 Luis Leon Sanchez Gil (Spa) Rabobank + 2:02
10 Maxime Monfort (Bel) Leopard Trek + 2:06

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Wiggins can win this now, I won't mind.

He did put in a huge load of work at the road race, so he'll have deserved it I guess. Just wish he shaved his sideburns.

wouldn't that be an illegal Mod

 

[Montanus]

2011 Vuelta ITT stage 10 47km

Stage 10 results
1 Tony Martin (Ger) HTC-Highroad 0:55:54
2 Christopher Froome (GBr) Sky + 0:59
3 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky + 1:22
4 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Leopard Trek + 1:27
5 Taylor Phinney (USA) BMC Racing + 1:33
6 Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Leopard Trek + 1:37
7 Tiago Machado (Por) RadioShack + 1:54
8 Janez Brajkovic (Slo) RadioShack + 1:56
9 Luis Leon Sanchez Gil (Spa) Rabobank + 2:02
10 Maxime Monfort (Bel) Leopard Trek + 2:06

Haha, I just remembered Phinney's result in the Vuelta and thought about editing my post, but you sort of added the information. So should we say Phinney just had a bad day in WC ITT? Or does the big gap reveal something about Phinney and championship ITT?

Just rechecked the prologue result from the Giro this year. He beat Larsson with 22s and Pinotti with 23s, over just 8.7k. Quiet impressive. I predict him in 5th place tomorrow, maybe he can go higher.

Question: is Tejay riding tomorrow or not? I have read some previews for tomorrow and they keep menitioning that Tejay will ride. But on some startlist he isn't listed. Confusing. Edit: apparently he is not riding.

 

[kurtinsc]

Phinney has a shot at bronze I think.

What's working in his advantage is that he's been 100% focused on this race and many of the other top ITT riders seem to have either burned a lot of energy (Wiggins, Froome) or had some tumbles (Spartacus, Martin) over the last month.

What's working against him is that those guys are just better right now.

He's got good form... but that probably puts him in the 3-7 range for the final result. I'd love for him to medal but it won't be easy.

 

[Parrulo]

Haha, I just remembered Phinney's result in the Vuelta and thought about editing my post, but you sort of added the information. So should we say Phinney just had a bad day in WC ITT? Or does the big gap reveal something about Phinney and championship ITT?

Just rechecked the prologue result from the Giro this year. He beat Larsson with 22s and Pinotti with 23s, over just 8.7k. Quiet impressive. I predict him in 5th place tomorrow, maybe he can go higher.

Question: is Tejay riding tomorrow or not? I have read some previews for tomorrow and they keep menitioning that Tejay will ride. But on some startlist he isn't listed. Confusing. Edit: apparently he is not riding.

it is fairly simply actually, the vuelta was phinney's first GT so after it he was completely cooked and he must have felt the effects for weeks.

same exact thing happened to Nelson Oliveira who rode a good itt on the vuelta (top 15 iirc) and was nowhere at the worlds because he was too tired from his first GT.

About Nelson Oliveira best case scenario for him is a lower end of the top 10. he dropped too much weight this season and lost some of his itt power.

 

[pugdog]

Shouldn't Bradley Wiggins be really really tired?

 

[Montanus]

it is fairly simply actually, the vuelta was phinney's first GT so after it he was completely cooked and he must have felt the effects for weeks.

same exact thing happened to Nelson Oliveira who rode a good itt on the vuelta (top 15 iirc) and was nowhere at the worlds because he was too tired from his first GT.

About Nelson Oliveira best case scenario for him is a lower end of the top 10. he dropped too much weight this season and lost some of his itt power.

Phinney didn't finish the Vuelta because WC ITT was top priority, and it was 3weeks from when he left Vuelta to the ITT. But I know he suffered the stages before he left, so a reasonable cause for his weak ITT in the worlds might just be the Vuelta - as you said.

 

[gthx_gthx_]

Shouldn't Bradley Wiggins be really really tired?

Most likely , but this year Wiggins has been training with a swimming coach helping him to keep 97% of his form all year long.

So for Wiggo , i am not sure , i think he can do one last race at 100% , I guess he's been prepared for that.

 

[Frosty]

Wiggins is at 1.5 (2-1 on) for the gold tomorrow on betfair. Money to be made there for anyone who thinks he cant do it and that someone will not be as injured as thought or have prepared really well. Personally im not convinced that there wont be a surprise from someone but i just think he has the ability to do it even if someone else performs really well.

Martin second favourite, Cancellara third, Phinney fourth and Froome fifth.

In the winner w/o Wiggins market it looks like there has been a sudden run on Phinney.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Cycling really needs to get its act together in terms of qualifying #s for the Olympic TT.

It's insane that at worst a top 10 TT'er and possibly a top 5 TT'er isn't going race because of a ridiculous qualification system.

TJVG passed Evans (albeit an unfit Evans) in the final ITT in the TDF. TJVG was top 10 in all three of the TDF ITTs

Qualification should come from multiple sources (i.e grand tour TT results) for the ITT and the top cycling countries all should get two entries.

I understand limiting qualifcations for countires like the Ivory coast or Malta etc. but limiting the US and other top cycling countires is absurd. Freaking Ireland has two entries and neither is even a longshot for a medal.

Should have 2 entries for Belgium, France, Italy, United States.

I hope Phinney can medal but I think TJVG is in better form and has developed into a better ITT'er than Phinney so it's a bit of a disappointment that the best rider from the US isn't getting a shot although I think both should be in the race.

 

[AntonioRossi]

start list
http://www.wielerflits.nl/nieuws/18992/starttijden-tijdrit-olympische-spelen-2012.html

First rider goes of at 14:15:00 37 LAHSAINI Mouhcine

Last 7:
15:00:00 7 FROOME Christopher GBR19850520
15:01:30 6 PINOTTI Marco ITA19760225
15:03:00 5 SANCHEZ GIL Luis Leon ESP19831124
15:04:30 4 PHINNEY Taylor USA19900627
15:06:00 3 MARTIN Tony GER19850423
15:07:30 2 WIGGINS Bradley GBR19800428
15:09:00 1 CANCELLARA Fabian SUI19810318

 

[taiwan]

What about the Womens ITT. Anyone got any thoughts on that?

Pooley (GB)
Arndt (Ger)
Villumsen (NZ)
Armstrong (USA)
Van Dijk (NED)
Neben (USA)
Vos (NED)

I have no clue about the top women TTists, but I did a (current) subranking search on CQ.

1. [GER] ARNDT Judith GEW 23/07/1976 335
2. [USA] NEBEN Amber SLU 18/02/1975 280
3. [CAN] HUGHES Clara SLU 27/09/1972 152
4. [NZL] VILLUMSEN Linda GEW 09/04/1985 127
5. [RUS] ZABELINSKAYA Olga RVL 10/05/1980 117
6. [GBR] POOLEY Emma LNL 03/10/1982 109
7. [USA] STEVENS Evelyn SLU 09/05/1983 102
8. [NED] VAN DIJK Ellen SLU 11/02/1987 93
9. [CAN] WHITTEN Tara TIB 13/07/1980 86
10. [GBR] HOUVENAGHEL Wendy - 27/11/1974 80
11. [USA] ARMSTRONG Kristin EXG 11/08/1973 72
12. [AUS] GILLOW Shara GEW 23/12/1987 68
13. [NED] VOS Marianne RBW 13/05/1987 54
14. [GER] WORRACK Trixi SLU 28/09/1981 49
15. [GER] TEUTENBERG Ina SLU 28/10/1974 49
16. [AZE] CHALYKH Elena DLT 25/03/1974 48
17. [CAN] SHAW Rhae-Christie EXG 20/11/1975 47
18. [GER] KUPFERNAGEL H. RVL 19/03/1974 41
19. [RUS] ANTOSHINA Tatiana RBW 27/07/1982 40
20. [GBR] SHAW Julia - 28/07/1965 39

2011 WC:

1. [GER] ARNDT Judith TCW 37'07" 100
2. [NZL] VILLUMSEN SERUP Linda LNL 22" 70
3. [GBR] POOLEY Emma CWT 24" 40
4. [CAN] WHITTEN Tara TIB 26" 30
5. [CAN] HUGHES Clara - 37" 25
6. [NED] VAN DIJK Ellen TCW 39" 20
7. [CAN] SHAW Rhae-Christie - 39" 15
8. [USA] NEBEN Amber TCW 41" 10
9. [SWE] FAHLIN Emilia TCW 55" 9
10. [NED] VOS Marianne NLB 56" 8
11. [GER] TEUTENBERG Ina TCW 56" 7
12. [AUS] GILLOW Shara BPD 01'00" 6
13. [AZE] CHALYKH Elena - 01'01" 5
14. [SWE] JOHANSSON Emma HPU 01'01" 4
15. [USA] STEVENS Evelyn TCW 01'22" 3
16. [RUS] ZABELINSKAYA Olga DPZ 01'25" 0
17. [GBR] SHAW Julia - 01'50" 0
18. [ITA] CANTELE Noemi CWT 01'58" 0
19. [SUI] SCHNIDER Pascale BIM 01'59" 0
20. [FIN] SUNDSTEDT Pia - 02'01" 0

You could see Pooley having increased motivation at home and producing a big performance, but I haven't followed her season so I don't know about that likelihood.

Arndt FTW I guess? Villumsen on the podium?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Cycling really needs to get its act together in terms of qualifying #s for the Olympic TT.

It's insane that at worst a top 10 TT'er and possibly a top 5 TT'er isn't going race because of a ridiculous qualification system.

TJVG passed Evans (albeit an unfit Evans) in the final ITT in the TDF. TJVG was top 10 in all three of the TDF ITTs

Qualification should come from multiple sources (i.e grand tour TT results) for the ITT and the top cycling countries all should get two entries.

I understand limiting qualifcations for countires like the Ivory coast or Malta etc. but limiting the US and other top cycling countires is absurd. Freaking Ireland has two entries and neither is even a longshot for a medal.

Should have 2 entries for Belgium, France, Italy, United States.

I hope Phinney can medal but I think TJVG is in better form and has developed into a better ITT'er than Phinney so it's a bit of a disappointment that the best rider from the US isn't getting a shot although I think both should be in the race.

It's america's own fault they have 1 place. They knew the qualification criteria. If you want a 2nd starter, place in the top 10 of the Worlds ITT.
They failed to do that last year.
Netherlands did finish top 10 the past 2 years with Westra (2011) and Moerenhout (2010), so they fully deserve their 2nd ITT spot.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

It's america's own fault they have 1 place. They knew the qualification criteria. If you want a 2nd starter, place in the top 10 of the Worlds ITT.
They failed to do that last year.
Netherlands did finish top 10 the past 2 years with Westra (2011) and Moerenhout (2010), so they fully deserve their 2nd ITT spot.

It's not about fault but rather the criteria itself which I find ridiculous.

I have nothing against Westra or Moerenhout.

In almost every other olympic sport qualification occurs fairly close to the Olympic Games in cycling we're talking about an event that occurred 10 months ago. 10 months is a long time in cycling.

The UCI needs to hold a qualifying event in June and/or create a formula wherein there are qualification standards that are weighted towards the most recent results.

 

[Montanus]

It is worse elsewhere. In the singles in table-tennis the chinese just have 2 men and 2 women. That is just hilarious, given that the chinese totally dominate table-tennis.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

It is worse elsewhere. In the singles in table-tennis the chinese just have 2 men and 2 women. That is just hilarious, given that the chinese totally dominate table-tennis.

True, although the ITTF have done this to try and make table tennis more international. If only Chinese dominate worlds/olympics it might lose it's olympic status because the sport is not international enough.

 

[Warhawk]

This is from Wikipedia... but, of course, it's unsourced, so it might be (or probably is, really) wrong (though it is a bit strange that the Olympics website would have him in the TT if he's not):

The United States were given an extra rider at the expense of Luxembourg, who will not be represented in the race.

Now, the latter part of that statement appears to be true, that Luxembourg won't have a representative, but that doesn't necessarily mean the former is true.

 

[DirtyWorks]

The UCI needs to hold a qualifying event in June and/or create a formula wherein there are qualification standards that are weighted towards the most recent results.

Every federation has their own criteria with the UCI providing some guidance in making the rules. The end result is the federations meet a variety of complicated IOC specs when the Games get underway.

It seems to me Federations are doing some longer-term planning even though you feel differently.

In the case of a country not bringing an athlete like Luxembourg, this is common. Many countries with podium-possible athletes will not bring an athlete unless they have some kind of chance.

 

[Cancellator]

I wonder, why didn't Lux bring Bob Jungels?

 

[Warhawk]

Yeah, so, the twitter account for USA Pro Cycling Challenge seems to think that Phinny, van Garderen, and Duggan are all in the TT.

https://twitter.com/USAProChallenge

The @Olympics Men's Time Trial is tomorrow. Which US cyclist are you excited to watch: @taylorphinney, Tejay Van Garderen or @timmydugganJGH

Aaaaaaalrighty then...

 

[PCutter]

It's not about fault but rather the criteria itself which I find ridiculous.

I have nothing against Westra or Moerenhout.

In almost every other olympic sport qualification occurs fairly close to the Olympic Games in cycling we're talking about an event that occurred 10 months ago. 10 months is a long time in cycling.

The UCI needs to hold a qualifying event in June and/or create a formula wherein there are qualification standards that are weighted towards the most recent results.

What's so ridiculous about the criteria. Turn up to the World Championships, ride well. EARN an extra spot. If Cycling USA can't get their act together that's there fault. They chose not to target the worlds, other countries did specifically because they knew the Olympics were the following year. If Cycling USA weren't aware 2012 was an Olympic year its hardly the rest of the world's fault.

And why do they need a qualifying event in June. There already is one. Its called the World Championships. You may have heard of it. Its kind of a big deal. Admittedly it isn't held in July so it may not get coverage in some parts of the world.

TT championship performance has nothing to do with TT grand tour performance.

 

[SafeBet]

I've got two questions.
First (probably been explained before): why do some countries have more than a rider competing?

Second, can anybody post the parcours of this?

 

[The Hitch]

Anyone have any good ideas as to where to watch the tt from?