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Vuelta a España Who Will Win the Vuelta 2019?

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Who will win the Vuelta 2019?


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What leads to your assumption that this Lopez is stronger than the one at the giro? He had some bad luck there, sure, but most importantly he was outclassed by most of his rivals. The only reason he looks so much stronger here is because the opposition allows it
What leads me is the fact that he's able to escape from his rivals when the road goes uphill, which wasn't the case in the Giro. What leads me is also the fact that he lost 1.45 min less in the TT similar length to stage winner. To me these are convincing indicators of his form.
 
What leads me is the fact that he's able to escape from his rivals when the road goes uphill, which wasn't the case in the Giro. What leads me is also the fact that he lost 1.45 min less in the TT similar length to stage winner. To me these are convincing indicators of his form.
I think Lopez was strong in the Giro, too. As evident from his surprisingly good performance in the opening ITT where he beat Dumoulin among others. But he had his misfortunes and was very incosistent.

I think the main protagonists from the Giro and Vuelta are comparable in strength. If you want to evaluate MAL's strength in both GTs, look at Majka. He is the same 2nd tier GT contender who competes for positions from 5th to 10th. He was in 6th in the end at the Giro, one position ahead of Lopez. Right now in the Vuelta there's no comparison. Lopez is one or two levels above Majka right now and is 4min ahead of him in GC. So if he stays consistent I think it's safe to say his level is better than it was during the Giro.
 
A potential argument in MAL's favor is the presence of Fuglsang, who if he can recover his form from earlier in the season could be a better domestique than either Kuss or Bennett. From what I've seen Lopez is slightly better than at the Giro -- but then again so is Roglic.

Sure there aren't any insanely ridiculous stages, but the last week and a half includes enough summit finishes to create 2-3 minute gaps cumulatively. and if Roglic shows signs of going backwards, the attacks will come thick and fast.
 
What leads me is the fact that he's able to escape from his rivals when the road goes uphill, which wasn't the case in the Giro. What leads me is also the fact that he lost 1.45 min less in the TT similar length to stage winner. To me these are convincing indicators of his form.
Like @johnymax said, while his long TT was horrible in the giro he started with what I think was a 4th place in the prologue so.
At the end of the day there is no definitive answer. In retrospective I probably shouldn't have written my posts in a way that sounded like I thought I had one. But while one can point out the comparison with Majka, claiming this shows Lopez is stronger here, you could as well say the comparison with Lopez proves Majka is weaker than in the giro. (Btw despite finishing in front of Lopez in the giro, that was only due to Lopez' crash on the final mountain stage. Over the whole giro Lopez was clearly better than Majka, although tbf not by as much as he seems to be in this vuelta)
To come back to the beginning, the whole discussion started with whether Quintana/Valverde and Lopez are comparable in strength to Landa/Carapaz and Nibali and I stand with my point that they are not. Valverde and Quintana just remind me too much of their former selves from one year ago where they looked like the big danger for Yates before fading into mediocrity the longer the Vuelta went on. And Lopez, even if he is a bit stronger than in the giro, I still refuse to see him as a threat comparable to Nibali.
 
Like @johnymax said, while his long TT was horrible in the giro he started with what I think was a 4th place in the prologue so.
At the end of the day there is no definitive answer. In retrospective I probably shouldn't have written my posts in a way that sounded like I thought I had one. But while one can point out the comparison with Majka, claiming this shows Lopez is stronger here, you could as well say the comparison with Lopez proves Majka is weaker than in the giro. (Btw despite finishing in front of Lopez in the giro, that was only due to Lopez' crash on the final mountain stage. Over the whole giro Lopez was clearly better than Majka, although tbf not by as much as he seems to be in this vuelta)
To come back to the beginning, the whole discussion started with whether Quintana/Valverde and Lopez are comparable in strength to Landa/Carapaz and Nibali and I stand with my point that they are not. Valverde and Quintana just remind me too much of their former selves from one year ago where they looked like the big danger for Yates before fading into mediocrity the longer the Vuelta went on. And Lopez, even if he is a bit stronger than in the giro, I still refuse to see him as a threat comparable to Nibali.
I don't know, maybe you're right, maybe not, we'll see. All I can say it that I have a feeling the rest of this Vuelta will not be walk in the park for Roglic. He's not superior uphill to his main rivals, and all we have left is uphill stages. You said Valverde and Quintana faded last year, but what about Roglic couple of months ago? Hadn't he faded also?
Don't get me wrong, Roglic is the hot favorite now, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if someone else ends up as a winner.
 
@Gigs_98
In theory I agree with you. From what we know now, Nibali, Landa and Carapaz sound like tougher competition for Roglič. But remember at the time Carapaz wasn't considered a real threat by many. Even when he was let go at Lago Serru very few people thought he'd be a serious contender for the win. You could make a case for Pogačar to be in similar situation in the Vuelta. Who knows. Maybe he does a Carapaz.

Also there are many differences between Vuelta and Giro. The second half of the Giro was way tougher with many long multi mountain stages. Roglič had no team, he got sick and the weather didn't help. If you consider he probably miscalculated his peak the fading was inevitable.

If you swap the situations and put this MAL, this Quintana and this Valverde in the Giro they are still a threat to Roglič and most probably the same happens, one of them wins.
 
For me me it's MAL vs Roglic
That might well be the key matchup. I'm wondering whether Roglic could still fight back to retake the red jersey if he loses it in the mountains through the tough stage on Tuesday (September 10). In the final week, Stage 18 (Thursday, 9-12) and stage 20 (Saturday, 9-14) seem to have profiles that might suit an aggressive ride by Roglic if he needs to take back some time and is not sick or injured. He can be a very strong descender coming off a hard climb and of course can ride hard as a single rider (for instance, if he has a gap back to one or two riders or a very small group).
 
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What a pathetic GC battle this race will have if Valverde ends up on the podium
Yeah, he was just so bad yesterday.

Analysts say climbing wattages are off the charts in this race, but let's just pretend that Valverde is not riding impressively because he's old. Maybe his weight loss might influence his climbing performances just a teensy, tiny bit.
 
What a pathetic GC battle this race will have if Valverde ends up on the podium
Valverde's numbers are very high. It's easy to discredit the GC because we have old man Valverde and the new guy Pogacar, but the climbing numbers are very high and they are breaking climbing times records almost daily. I think even Froome, Dumoulin or Nibali would have difficulty with the Vuelta if they were here.

 
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