Who Wins the 2016 Tour of Lombardy?

[Echoes]

There's just a little more than 300 days to go, so I wisely thought that the time was right to start making predictions.

Will Nibali double up?

can Tim Wellens nail his first major classic win?

Discuss.

 

[jens_attacks]

What route will they ride?

Diego rosa. No doubt.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Nibali will be very hungry after he blew up the Olympics and crashed out of the Vuelta.

 

[BigMac]

Yes, Tim Wellens would be great. Here hoping they ditch Sormano.

 

[Brullnux]

The finish should be in Bergamo next year, I think it is:
2014 Bergamo - Martin
2015 Como - Nibali
2016 Bergamo
2017 Como

Hopefully the route will be a bit better next year than in 2014, with a hard climb soon before the Alto Bergamo climb where a selection of 5 or 6 riders is made before final attacks on the Bergamo climb.

Prediction:

Froome to solo out from 112km after losing out to Contador in the Tour when AC attacked while Froome had urine thrown at him again by a drunk Sir Brad. Froome does not notice Bertie attacking as his stem provides a much better view on life than his coffee drinking amigo.Then tries the Vuelta where he gets a bottle 'thrown' at by Nibali during a descent. Froome falls. Anger. His stem breaks and he leaves the race. Impossible to race without the stem, he says.

 

[Velolover2]

Rebellin at 45 in front of Horner.

It's the only big classic he still is missing. I think that's why he wouldn't retire.

 

[bassano]

Re:

Rebellin at 45 in front of Horner.

It's the only big classic he still is missing. I think that's why he wouldn't retire.

I exactly do not remember which of big classic he really won apart from his legendary tripple in ardenes

 

[BigMac]

Re: Re:

Rebellin at 45 in front of Horner.

It's the only big classic he still is missing. I think that's why he wouldn't retire.

I exactly do not remember which of big classic he really won apart from his legendary tripple in ardenes

Duh, Züri-Metzgete 1997.

n00b.

Jokes aside, he won San Sebastián that same year and that's about it. Arguably some of the races he won back and before his prime had a bigger status than they have nowdays, but for a rider with his characteristics he's pretty much bagged it all, apart from Lombardia.

 

[Tonton]

What a stupid question: Thibaut Pinot of course!

 

[Billie]

not sure why serioussam hasn't posted the odds for this race yet

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

not sure why serioussam hasn't posted the odds for this race yet

 

[Jspear]

Has the route been announced? To hard to predict a race like this right now. It's towards the end of the season, most are tired...can't say who will be "fresh" the way Nibbes was this year.

 

[pink_jersey]

Sergio Henao will beat 'em all...Chaves second.Some italian guy third.

 

[RedheadDane]

The guy who crosses the line first...

We don't even know for sure who's going to ride, I'd say it's a bit early to talk about who'll win.

 

[hrotha]

Lel, you guys are completely missing the point of this absurd thread, which is to remind everybody that Echoes is a TRUER CYCLING FAN than any of us.

 

[SeriousSam]

If anyone except Echoes had made this thread, and I would think this thread is a misguided and confused attempt to poke fun at the idea that one can meaningfully predict events from far out, but yeah, it's probably what you say.

 

[RedheadDane]

And I'll have a bit of fun with anyone who posts Race Favourites threads almost a year before the race is to be raced.
For all we know everybody who gets mentioned here as a pre-race favourite may crash during the Vuelta and break their legs. Not very likey, sure, but it could happen.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re:

And I'll have a bit of fun with anyone who posts Race Favourites threads almost a year before the race is to be raced.
For all we know everybody who gets mentioned here as a pre-race favourite may crash during the Vuelta and break their legs. Not very likey, sure, but it could happen.

But there is no difference in kind, only a difference in degree, between predicting an outcome almost a year before and predicting an outcome with the leaders 1k from the finish. For all we know, Dan Martin might crash in the last corner. Not very likely, sure, but it could happen.

Will our predictions be better if we wait until the start of a race before talking about favourites? Will our determinations of the Race Favourites be more highly correlated with the eventual winner and high finishers? Sure. We'll have much more information. We'll do better still if we wait until they've covered half the the race, and yet better if we wait till the last 5k, and we'll be almost infallibly good good if we wait till the last 5 meters.

If one has no interest in making predictions and talking about favourites when little information is available yet, that's fine, but it would be silly to make claims like that it's impossible, or to stop others from doing so. They might just have a different information threshold for it to become interesting to think about favourites than you do.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

And I'll have a bit of fun with anyone who posts Race Favourites threads almost a year before the race is to be raced.
For all we know everybody who gets mentioned here as a pre-race favourite may crash during the Vuelta and break their legs. Not very likey, sure, but it could happen.

But there is no difference in kind, only a difference in degree, between predicting an outcome almost a year before and predicting an outcome with the leaders 1k from the finish. For all we know, Dan Martin might crash in the last corner. Not very likely, sure, but it could happen.

Will our predictions be better if we wait until the start of a race before talking about favourites? Will our determinations of the Race Favourites be more highly correlated with the eventual winner and high finishers? Sure. We'll have much more information. We'll do better still if we wait until they've covered half the the race, and yet better if we wait till the last 5k, and we'll be almost infallibly good good if we wait till the last 5 meters.

If one has no interest in making predictions and talking about favourites when little information is available yet, that's fine, but it would be silly to make claims like that it's impossible, or to stop others from doing so. They might just have a different information threshold for it to become interesting to think about favourites than you do.

True. But this conversation is truly pointless by any standard. There is no official route.

 

[RedheadDane]

If I recall correctly the Dan Martin crashing in the last corner thing already has happened. Although in Liege rather than Lombardy.
I'd still say there's quite a difference between predicting a Winner over a year before the race, and predicting a Winner 1 K before the finish - at least if there's a solo attack.
In the first it's basically He could win, if he's even in the race and x, y, z doesn't happen.
In the second it's basically He'll win if he doesn't crash, and x, y, z doesn't happen.

Do we even know if the guys mentioned here are even going to aim at Lombardy?

 

[Velolover2]

RedheadDane posting without mentioning the Danes or Denmark.

What kind of world are we living in?