Who's the suprise package?

[plodderbob]

Which rider do people think is going to completely take us all by surprise and go top 5 or podium who isn't one of the big names?

 

[Zaschrona]

Where - TdF? Michael Rogers?

 

[The Hitch]

all the top gc contenders bar valverde are there so the top 5 is going to go to the selection of about 15 top riders whom we already know are contenders. i think kreuziger is the least known rider who can potentially get a top 5.

 

[Christian]

Fuglsang might make top-10 IMO, don't know if that would be considered a surprise though

 

[Publicus]

It obviously depends on Bruyneel not being wedded to the idea of the three senior citizens, but I would say Jani B could surprise a few folks. But that's a pretty big dependency that I don't have any faith will come true.

 

[The Hitch]

looking at last years surprise - wiggins, the only thing comparable this year would be cancellara suddenly learning how to climb and being the surprise. Maybe it will be riis's revenge on the schlecks. but unlikely.

 

[bobbins]

If we told you now, it wouldn't be a surprise

 

[kurtinsc]

Well... not that I actually know who the riders are... but I'll go with some schmuck on Footon suprising. They're all new to the tour anyway... maybe one will actually be good.

 

[Kazistuta]

If Gesink placing top5 is a surprise, that's my guess

Out of the lesser known riders I'd say Dries Devenyns is in for a good tour. Rein Taaramae and Rui Costa should be given free reigns and it'll be interesting to see hw they fare...

 

[Race Radio]

Rémy Di Gregorio

 

[Connor Pass]

I think Mick Rogers may podium.
As far as I remember he was well situated in the GC and on a break in the Alps with Rasmussen but crashed on a descent. Rasmussen went on to get yellow that day...
His ToC form was good too.

 

[Arnout]

Rogers will never stay on the final podium of the Tour. He's just not consistent enough in the mountains. One day, fine, but not for three weeks.

Hey, but that's maybe why you call it a surprise

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Joaquím Rodríguez. He'll be 3rd or 4th, then drop three places in the final ITT.

 

[djlovesyou]

Not sure he'll last that long.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Not sure he'll last that long.

Possible, but with not many stages opening up decisive gaps, and him being brilliant when it's super steep (eg Mende!) I have faith.

 

[Zoncolan]

Joaquím Rodríguez. He'll be 3rd or 4th, then drop three places in the final ITT.

Isn't he supposed to ride the Vuelta later? I think he won't go for the GC at the Tour, but rather target stages and KOM.

Fedrigo to top 10

 

[Big_Blue_Dave]

Rein Taaramae is a good shout indeed. My only worry is how he will go in the firat week and the final time trial.

He may do very well in one of the mountain stages though and pick up a stage victory.

 

[SpartacusRox]

Tony Martin

 

[Inner Peace]

I didn't have the cohones to tip them in my top 10, but any one of these four, in order of most likely to least likely to surprise:

Fugslang
Dan Martin (is he racing?)
Tony Martin
Dave Zabriskie

 

[Liquigas]

Nicolas Roche

 

[theyoungest]

Tony Martin

Where Rodriguez can profit from a climb like Mende, Martin will get slaughtered on those inclines over 10 %. He'll probably have to make up a lot of time in the closing TT, which of course is tailor made for him.

And to the guy who picked the other Martin, Dan: he isn't racing. But even if he were, he's incredibly inconsistent.

 

[Christian]

Nicolas Roche

Plus John Gadret if he's not too tired from the Giro!

 

[Nearly]

On the basis he is not already one of the favourites (or even if he is it would surprise greatly anyway) -- Mick Rogers

 

[Horizon Deep]

Gesink has a real chance of top 10 maybe even higher.Looks like a good climber and Rabobank seem to have a pretty strong team this year!

 

[Indurain]

Brice FEILLU if he was in it, but unfortunately he joined the wrong team. Probably Tony Martin is my guess to suprise.