Wiggins to win Le Tour?

[bladerunner]

Now that the inevitable has been confirmed, do you think Wiggins will win Le Tour with Sky?

I say NO because although I think Wiggins is one of the greatest talents ever he does not have the mental toughness and discipline needed to beat the likes of Contador or Armstrong. It's a real shame that Wiggins did not really start to concentrate on road races until 2009.

 

[maltiv]

Definitely not if all the stuff he writes on twitter is true, cause in that case he will be incredibly fat by next year.

He won't have a chance to beat neither Contador nor Andy Schleck, but he will probably beat Armstrong. Probably top 10, possibly top 5 again but doubt it.

 

[fatandfast]

Now that the inevitable has been confirmed, do you think Wiggins will win Le Tour with Sky?

I say NO because although I think Wiggins is one of the greatest talents ever he does not have the mental toughness and discipline needed to beat the likes of Contador or Armstrong. It's a real shame that Wiggins did not really start to concentrate on road races until 2009.

Greatest talents ever? Does he play the flute? Did he write a poem I should check out? He is great at giving interviews about what might be,but so far he couldn't carry Merckx's jock.

 

[BroDeal]

 

[kurtinsc]

I like Wiggins. He's got a dry sense of humor and I really hope he does well.

But to win a GT, he needs a lot more TT miles then in this year's tour. Give him one with 150km of TT... he's got a shot. This year... even a top 5 will be difficult.

 

[Anonymous]

Now that the inevitable has been confirmed, do you think Wiggins will win Le Tour with Sky?

I say NO because although I think Wiggins is one of the greatest talents ever he does not have the mental toughness and discipline needed to beat the likes of Contador or Armstrong. It's a real shame that Wiggins did not really start to concentrate on road races until 2009.

Mental toughness and discipline he has in abundance.. you dont win that many medals on the track, and work for dave brailsford for that many years without having discipline and mental strength...

thats not the issue..

the many questions are, does he have the engine, does he have the stamina, does he have the support, does he have the form...

we will only find out in july... if anything happens to AC it could be the most wide open tour in years, i almost hope that AC breaks a collarbone or something, the AC v LA fight isnt going to be a real fight, but a LA, v Andy schleck, v Brad, VdV, v Evans, V Menchov could be a real good battle..

Id love him to, dont think he will, but i think maybe he could podium if things went right.. the one thing that just keeps nagging at me is that last year was his FIRST year riding a road season with no distractions.. we dont know how good he could be in his SECOND PRO YEAR, which is effectively what he is about to start..

 

[Bustedknuckle]

Now that the inevitable has been confirmed, do you think Wiggins will win Le Tour with Sky?

I say NO because although I think Wiggins is one of the greatest talents ever he does not have the mental toughness and discipline needed to beat the likes of Contador or Armstrong. It's a real shame that Wiggins did not really start to concentrate on road races until 2009.

Nope. Contador for sure but Armstrong isn't going to me there at the end. He'll be in the mix but his team will try to 'protect' him when he fails on the big climbs but he just. won't. have' 'IT'.

 

[Bill Lumbergh]

Second season syndrome for BW methinks. Plus, his card will be marked by his competitors and he won't have someone like VDV riding domestique for him up those mountains in week 3.

 

[bladerunner]

Mental toughness and discipline he has in abundance.. you dont win that many medals on the track, and work for dave brailsford for that many years without having discipline and mental strength...

thats not the issue..

the many questions are, does he have the engine, does he have the stamina, does he have the support, does he have the form...

we will only find out in july... if anything happens to AC it could be the most wide open tour in years, i almost hope that AC breaks a collarbone or something, the AC v LA fight isnt going to be a real fight, but a LA, v Andy schleck, v Brad, VdV, v Evans, V Menchov could be a real good battle..

Id love him to, dont think he will, but i think maybe he could podium if things went right.. the one thing that just keeps nagging at me is that last year was his FIRST year riding a road season with no distractions.. we dont know how good he could be in his SECOND PRO YEAR, which is effectively what he is about to start..

I have had the good fortune to see Wiggins start as a local teenager at the local track and progress to where he is now. He has always looked natural on a bike - road or track - and is a joy to watch in action.

He has bike talent [and possibly some musical or literature variety too??!!] but I have noticed that he has been very good in beating people like him but he has never really had to take the beg step up and beat anyone that he knows is better/smarter than him on the road. The track has always been his home-turf but the tour is not. It's a real shame because I really believe that if he had focused on the road from his early 20s he would have been able to make that big jump gradually and successfully all the way to top spot in Le Tour. But now, time is very much against him.

 

[tifosa]

Can Wiggins win the TdF? Sure. There is no such thing as false hope. And as Dim said, given equal conditions, opportunity, support, and form, Wiggins will be a podium contender along with Contador, Vandevelde, Armstrong, Menchov, and anyone else who "achieves" similarly.

I'm very happy that Wiggins found a home with Team Sky. Unhappiness, riding for an American team, training in America, and jet-lag, will be four excuses left unavailable if his performance lags. He's got it all now, doesn't he? Let's hope he can prove his worth come July. If not, the ridicule will rain down on him as it does for all GC contenders.

I wish Wiggins the best season possible.

 

[richwagmn]

Can Wiggins win the TdF? Sure. There is no such thing as false hope. And as Dim said, given equal conditions, opportunity, support, and form, Wiggins will be a podium contender along with Contador, Vandevelde, Armstrong, Menchov, and anyone else who "achieves" similarly.

I'm very happy that Wiggins found a home with Team Sky. Unhappiness, riding for an American team, training in America, and jet-lag, will be four excuses left unavailable if his performance lags. He's got it all now, doesn't he? Let's hope he can prove his worth come July. If not, the ridicule will rain down on him as it does for all GC contenders.

I wish Wiggins the best season possible.

Huh? Are you really putting a 4 time GT winner in the same category as Wiggins? Really?

Wiggins hasn't proven anything yet in the GTs. He has a 10 top. That's it.

 

[Anonymous]

Huh? Are you really putting a 4 time GT winner in the same category as Wiggins? Really?

Wiggins hasn't proven anything yet in the GTs. He has a 10 top. That's it.

but to be fair, contador was at one point not a 4 time GT winner...

brad has competed in ONE season on the road, name another rider who in their debut road season has finished 4th in a grand tour.. we have no idea of how he will perform next year.. but we can only ever judge based on this year... prior to 2009 he was 90% a track cyclist signed to pro teams purely for Time Trialling..

He nearly made the podium in his debut grand tour.. who knows what he can do.. he could win, he could finish 50th.. we have no idea..

the only thing we can be sure of, if he repeats his performance, or podiums, then we will get a bunch of threads on sky doping policy..

 

[Anonymous]

....the one thing that just keeps nagging at me is that last year was his FIRST year riding a road season with no distractions.. we dont know how good he could be in his SECOND PRO YEAR, which is effectively what he is about to start..

Dim, that's been nagging at me the last week or so too.

We all talked about Wiggo's good fortune in 2009 Tour with the TTT, big groups in mountains etc etc, but at the end of the day, he time trialled with the top ten and climbed with the top ten and even tho at times I have doubted whether he could back this up, like you, we are in the dark about what he can do with Road Transition 2.0 ()

One thing for certain in my mind is, he will not win the Tour in 2010. i just can't see it happening that quickly, but i'm more than happy to be wrong. I don't believe that Contador is the ONLY man to beat either. I think there are about 20 riders to challenge the top 10, about 10 riders that could challenge the podium, and about 5 riders that could actually win. Is wiggo in my final 5? Not at this stage, but I will decide after/if he does the Giro. But, this will be a very wide open Tour, which is good for Brad.

I feel that if he is serious about winning the Tour in the next 4 years, then he has to forget about the track and forget about the 2012 Olympics on the track. I think he has to 100% be on the road for the next 3 years if he wants to become a regular GC challenger.. It's gonna be a tough call from Wiggins, and a tough call for DB, but he has to make a decision starting next year. It's the road and the winning the Tour OR its the track and the olympics, but not both, it won't work

Good luck to him.

 

[Clemson Cycling]

brad has competed in ONE season on the road, name another rider who in their debut road season has finished 4th in a grand tour.. we have no idea of how he will perform next year.. but we can only ever judge based on this year... prior to 2009 he was 90% a track cyclist signed to pro teams purely for Time Trialling..

Lance Armstrong finished 4th in the Vuelta when he returned from cancer in 1998 which is a similar situation

Hampsten finished 4th at the Tour in 1986 don't know when he first went pro

To be fair Wiggins has had a contract with a road cycling team since 2001

He nearly made the podium in his debut grand tour.. who knows what he can do.. he could win, he could finish 50th.. we have no idea..

What? You don't follow much cycling do you? You only missed 4 other GT's Wiggo competed in.
124th in 2006 Tour de France
WD in 2007 Tour de France
138th in the 2008 Giro
71st in the 2009 Giro
4th in 2009 Tour de France

 

[Anonymous]

To be fair Wiggins has had a contract with a road cycling team since 2001

to be fair he was hired by all of those teams to try and win the tour prologue and the odd time trial.. he was never a road cyclist by any stretch of the imagination..

you cannot compare those results. he was a track cyclist, doing the tour purely to try and win tt's for his team.. all he was hired for.. he was focused on a track career..

what i should have said was "made the podium in what was effectively his first grand tour" but i assume that was implied automatically in the context of what i had said

 

[richwagmn]

but to be fair, contador was at one point not a 4 time GT winner...

brad has competed in ONE season on the road, name another rider who in their debut road season has finished 4th in a grand tour.. we have no idea of how he will perform next year.. but we can only ever judge based on this year... prior to 2009 he was 90% a track cyclist signed to pro teams purely for Time Trialling..

He nearly made the podium in his debut grand tour.. who knows what he can do.. he could win, he could finish 50th.. we have no idea..

the only thing we can be sure of, if he repeats his performance, or podiums, then we will get a bunch of threads on sky doping policy..

Fair enough. Obviously every GT winner starts with 4 wins. I still don't understand the hype on Wiggins though. He often looked at his limit on the climbs and I didn't see any attacks that were capable of dropping any other top 10 contender (and certainly not AC or AS). There are many climbers who can hang with tempo riding. There are few who can hang with explosive attacks. I don't think Wiggins is one of them.

Assuming everyone is healthy in 2010 and that climbing is more important this year, how does Wiggins defeat Contador or Schleck?

 

[porkchopkufo]

Wiggo's gone from Garmin

It's unfortunate for Garmin but also very good for Brad Wiggins. I personally think the football analogy he made regarding the Team Sky and Garmin outfits are a bit unfair. Especially since it's the first season of Team Sky's existence! I don't see them having a better team than Garmin for the tour, especially if Dan Martin is healthy for the TDF for Garmin this year!

 

[Clemson Cycling]

what i should have said was "made the podium in what was effectively his first grand tour" but i assume that was implied automatically in the context of what i had said

By those standards Lance Armstrong won his first 7 Tours

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Now that the inevitable has been confirmed, do you think Wiggins will win Le Tour with Sky?

I say NO because although I think Wiggins is one of the greatest talents ever he does not have the mental toughness and discipline needed to beat the likes of Contador or Armstrong. It's a real shame that Wiggins did not really start to concentrate on road races until 2009.

Has nothing to do with mentality in Wiggins case. He simply lacks pure climbing ability. He climbs on character and mentality alone, he isn't a real climber.

 

[Clemson Cycling]

no one is going to beat Contador in quite some time on climbing talent alone and the guy has become one of the top 5 TT's in the world

 

[Anonymous]

By those standards Lance Armstrong won his first 7 Tours

no becuase armstrong road the tour prior to winning with road cycling as his number on objective..

now if lance had continued triathlon as his main thing, but also signed a pro contract to do selective road racing, then ok..

 

[ScottinPhilly]

FYI: Garmin doesn't train in America, they spend most of their time at a European base, Gerona, Spain.

And, I don't think life was so bad for him on an American team. He had all the support he needed, including that of Vaughters and Vandevelde. I can understand his desire to race for the first British ProTour Team and wish him well. He has a chance but I think it very unlikely as Sky will still be in its early development as a group during a time when competition is fierce, i.e.: Contador,Schleck, Menchov,Sastre,Evans,Armstrong(at least for 1 more year),etc.,etc.
Also, I think Sky management may have to deal with its first internal issue. I'm sure Lokvist and maybe even BoassenHagen thought they would be riding for themselves at the TDF. Brailsford will have some explaining and "team building" to do. By the way, does anyone know when Sky will be holding a training camp? It seems like all the other top teams already have, Saxo,Schack,Liquigas. I would think this would be even more important for a team entering its first season.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

Not to take anything from Wiggo, but the 2010 Tour doesn't suit him at all. The lack of time trial KMs and cobbles will hurt him more than he realizes. He has said the cobbles would give him an advantage over Schleck and Contador, but there is nothing in his palmares that would lead me to believe that. Also VDV was coming off a serious injury at the past tour which allowed Wiggo to take control. With a healthy VDV, I expect him to contest TTs the way we're used to and pull VDV up the mountains. Remember also that Levi crashed out which allowed Wiggo into the top 5.

Unless one of the other contenders breaks in the cobbles, I don't see Wiggo breaking the top 5 next year.

 

[Clemson Cycling]

no becuase armstrong road the tour prior to winning with road cycling as his number on objective..

Yeah but he was a one day rider. Lance Armstrong raced the same number of Grand Tours (Wiggins finished 3 more) then Lance did before he finished fourth at the 1998 Vuelta.

 

[Moondance]

The answer is no. Not at all in fact.With fewer time trial kilometers and a slightly more open and aggressive field now that Astana has been broken up I don't see much of a chance for Wiggins to even maintain his 4th place from this year, let alone move up. To all those saying he can potentially win it:

Wiggins' deficit to Contador: 6 mins
Wiggins' deficit to A. Schleck: approx. 2 mins.

Where do you think that Wiggins can improve to such a degree where he can whittle down those types of deficits, because I really can't see it?