Will Gilbert be victorious at Cauberg once again?

[the asian]

If I recall correctly next year's WC actually finishes on a climb like that.

Don't know the exact profile of next yrs course but rumor was that it'll be much harder than this year.

 

[c&cfan]

I agree with that, he needs to be clever. He can kick clear of Sagan on the final climb and then can also beat the likes of Purito in a sprint if they go with him.

wich sagan? the only one that was able to follow canc at le tour? the same 4 monument canc and 4 time TT champion? yes.. sagan has no chance.

question: is that the same sagan that smoked gilbert at pure mountain stages? the one with the green jersey..

 

[c&cfan]

I doubt the 1.5 km after the Cauberg will make that much of a difference. Everyone will be cooked after the Cauberg anyway, and if you are the strongest there (even if it is only by 2-3 seconds) I think you might just stay away. Unless of course they get an insane organisation going in the background, but I do not see that happening.

Gilbert is still my favorite anyway, because he has a larger engine on the flat than any other favorite (besides Boonen who is not even a favorite in my opinion, and Sagan who I think is a little off-form).

how many classics has gilbert lost because he isn't strong enough on the flat? dozens?

 

[gthx_gthx_]

how many classics has gilbert lost because he isn't strong enough on the flat? dozens?

The Finish is 1.5 km after the last hill not 15 kms. If He ride everyone off his wheel on the cauberg he can hold his lead for the 2 last kms. But I don't think he'll get a gap big enough on the caubert. I don't even think that he can drop everyone on the cauberg.

 

[El Pistolero]

How many classics has Sagan won? How many classics has Cancellara lost because he's not strong enough to ride everyone off his wheels?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8cdgOOPMDe8

And unlike Sagan, Gilbert can actually drop Cancellara.

 

[cineteq]

How many classics has Sagan won?

Sagan pretty much just started racing the classics, I don't get your pointless comment.

 

[El Pistolero]

Sagan pretty much just started racing the classics, I don't get your pointless comment.

You can't lose dozens of classics if you have just started racing them now can you.

Although he already messed up 3 for the record.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

So how many years did it take Gilbert again to finally win a classic?

Seriously at age 22 Gilbert sucked compared to Sagan now.

 

[cineteq]

Although he already messed up 3 for the record.

Exactly, he needs to mess up few first before he can rule the classics.

ps: for a moment, I thought you were trying to imitate Hitch's signature pointless posts.

 

[El Pistolero]

So how many years did it take Gilbert again to finally win a classic?

Seriously at age 22 Gilbert sucked compared to Sagan now.

And what the hell does that have anything to do with it?

Riders mature at different times. It's about c&c's comment.

The WC takes place in 2012, not in 2004 when Gilbert was 22 years old.

 

[Angliru]

Problem is, guys like Valverde and Purito will follow Gilbert's wheel on the final assault and then come around him on the final straight - big danger with Pity being lead out this way. Sagan will probably screw up by going too early and blowing up or waiting too long - not experienced enough.

Sagan's gained a bit of savvy and experience over the course of this season so I don't see him ruining his chances by going too early. His game will be to be near the front over the Cauberg and at that point he being likely the one with the best sprint just sit in till someone else initiates the sprint, preferrably sitting on Gilbert's wheel at the time. I don't see Purito coming around Gilbert on a fast finish like this. He's good when sprinting against other grand tour gc riders but not so much versus the Sagan, Gilbert and Valverde.

 

[kanari]

If Sagan is in top shape I really can't see Gilbert getting a big gap on him on the Cauberg. Thing is though that I don't think he really is on the level he was earlier in the season. (Tirrene-TdF basically).

 

[El Pistolero]

If Sagan is in top shape I really can't see Gilbert getting a big gap on him on the Cauberg. Thing is though that I don't think he really is on the level he was earlier in the season. (Tirrene-TdF basically).

Compare the 2010/2011 Cauberg sprint with this year's sprint.

 

[kanari]

Compare the 2010/2011 Cauberg sprint with this year's sprint.

Yes, there was no Sagan there in 10/11... My point is 2012 Gilbert won't gap a Sagan in great shape. But as I said; I don't think he quite has that shape at the moment.

 

[El Pistolero]

Yes, there was no Sagan there in 10/11... My point is 2012 Gilbert won't gap a Sagan in great shape. But as I said; I don't think he quite has that shape at the moment.

1 Philippe Gilbert België Omega Pharma-Lotto 6u22'54
2 Ryder Hesjedal Canada Garmin-Slipstream op 2"
3 Enrico Gasparotto Italië Astana z.t.


And Gilbert had been in the attack a lot that day(while Gaspa and Hesjedal didn't do a thing) plus he was cheering already before the finish.

Sagan was there in 2011.

 

[theyoungest]

Yes, there was no Sagan there in 10/11... My point is 2012 Gilbert won't gap a Sagan in great shape. But as I said; I don't think he quite has that shape at the moment.

Don't you dare say that Sagan could possibly be close to Gilbert on such a finish, if on top form. El Calimero will have you keelhauled.

 

[johnnycash]

Everyone, and i include the bookies in that, seems convinced that gilbert has this in the bag. He's 5/4 at some bookies. Boonen is 20/1.

I'm not so sure ( and yes i've put my money elsewhere). There are several variables which are unproven.

How will he be post-Vuelta, against fresher riders?
He had a good showing at the Olympics and won stages at the Vuelta but is anyone fully convinced that PG is back to his 2011 standard? I'm not.
What about Boonen, why would the Belgian team stake everything on PG, if it came to a select sprint, I'd fancy TB.
I'd put PG in a top group with Valv, Boonen, Tommy V and possibly one GB rider if they can drag Cav about or unleash JTL. Odds are too small for PG i think.

 

[maltiv]

wich sagan? the only one that was able to follow canc at le tour? the same 4 monument canc and 4 time TT champion? yes.. sagan has no chance.

question: is that the same sagan that smoked gilbert at pure mountain stages? the one with the green jersey..

Is that the same Sagan who was suffering like a dog at the back of the peloton while EBH and Nordhaug were driving the pace uphill in Montreal? And then had no energy whatsoever for the final sprint?

Sagan will be dropped long before the final lap.

 

[cineteq]

Is that the same Sagan who was suffering like a dog at the back of the peloton while EBH and Nordhaug were driving the pace uphill in Montreal? And then had no energy whatsoever for the final sprint?

Is that your version of the facts? Obviously Sagan was working for Moser, while covering EBH.

 

[Falken]

Is that the same Sagan who was suffering like a dog at the back of the peloton while EBH and Nordhaug were driving the pace uphill in Montreal? And then had no energy whatsoever for the final sprint?

Guess it might have been good for EBHs confidence after getting tooled again and again by Sagan this year.

Sagan will be dropped long before the final lap.

So Sagan finished 12th in the sprint in Montreal (covering breaks for Moser). In Quebec he tried to catch GVA and Gerrans after a strong attack on the last climb but didn't manage to do it, he burnt a lot of energy and finished 26th (Without the attack he would probably have finished 3rd...). The two races was a preparation for the worlds, building shape towards it. In both the tough races he was up there. Two days ago he looked quiet good in the TTT, he was one of the 4 Liquigas guys left at finish.

Claiming with certainty that Sagan will be dropped before the final lap is just foolish. Sure, he probably won't reach TdF shape, but if he gets close he will be one of the contenders for sure. And yes, he was up there in RVV and AGR.

 

[El Pistolero]

Everyone, and i include the bookies in that, seems convinced that gilbert has this in the bag. He's 5/4 at some bookies. Boonen is 20/1.

I'm not so sure ( and yes i've put my money elsewhere). There are several variables which are unproven.

How will he be post-Vuelta, against fresher riders?
He had a good showing at the Olympics and won stages at the Vuelta but is anyone fully convinced that PG is back to his 2011 standard? I'm not.
What about Boonen, why would the Belgian team stake everything on PG, if it came to a select sprint, I'd fancy TB.
I'd put PG in a top group with Valv, Boonen, Tommy V and possibly one GB rider if they can drag Cav about or unleash JTL. Odds are too small for PG i think.

Tell me when was the last time a cyclist became WC on a hard course without the Vuelta in his legs?

 

[Panda Claws]

How will he be post-Vuelta, against fresher riders?

As El Pistolero said, almost all WC's of the last decade raced the Vuelta. Besides, Gilbert has barely ridden any finales this year anyway.

He had a good showing at the Olympics and won stages at the Vuelta but is anyone fully convinced that PG is back to his 2011 standard? I'm not.

He doesn't need to be, he has been the most explosive on things like this since 2009. Sagan could steal that title from him next year, but until I see him and Gilbert battle it out when both on top form I am not convinced.
Basically it's like this.

Gilbert 2011>>Gilbert 2010>Other hill riders
[/QUOTE]

What about Boonen, why would the Belgian team stake everything on PG, if it came to a select sprint, I'd fancy TB.
I'd put PG in a top group with Valv, Boonen, Tommy V and possibly one GB rider if they can drag Cav about or unleash JTL. Odds are too small for PG i think.

You mentioning Cav made me feel sorry for even taking the time to reply.

 

[Pippo_San]

Claiming with certainty that Sagan will be dropped before the final lap is just foolish. Sure, he probably won't reach TdF shape, but if he gets close he will be one of the contenders for sure. And yes, he was up there in RVV and AGR.

Finally some decent thoughts about Sagan.
He'll be ready, he'll be right there at the end.
The only question is whether there'll be someone able to drop him on the Cauberg.

Anyway you guys are putting too much faith into the Spanish Armada. They will sink, I'm sure of that. Valverde? Purito? No way, they'll be totally overcooked after the Vuelta.
The only question mark is on Contador, just because he didn't have a long season at all...
My bet is the only one at the end will be Oscarito, the Miracle Man. And I'm sure he's still able to deliver a podium.


This discussion is pointless tho. I thought we agreed that JTL has this WC in the bag already.