World Championships Innsbruck 2018

[Red Rick]

Re:

If Matthews will be selected instead of Porte i'm convinced even more that a break with the best climbers among classics riders and second fiddle climbers will go with 3/4 laps to go and no one will chase with the proper pace needed to contain the gap in the waiting game for the final wall. Matthews will be for sure interested in anticipating and without Porte card for the final Australia won't chase.

I'm not so sure. Huge gaps can be gained or lost on the Igls climb, which is hugely in favour of the climbers. The peloton could easily close over a minute on classics rider on the last Igls ascent alone.

Most Worlds RR don't have hills that are longer than 3 minutes, so it's hard to close a gap of 20s. Igls is closer to 20 minutes.

Anyone have the ascent times of the climb in the Tour of the Alps by the way?

 

[Nirvana]

Re: Re:

If Matthews will be selected instead of Porte i'm convinced even more that a break with the best climbers among classics riders and second fiddle climbers will go with 3/4 laps to go and no one will chase with the proper pace needed to contain the gap in the waiting game for the final wall. Matthews will be for sure interested in anticipating and without Porte card for the final Australia won't chase.

I'm not so sure. Huge gaps can be gained or lost on the Igls climb, which is hugely in favour of the climbers. The peloton could easily close over a minute on classics rider on the last Igls ascent alone.

Most Worlds RR don't have hills that are longer than 3 minutes, so it's hard to close a gap of 20s. Igls is closer to 20 minutes.

Anyone have the ascent times of the climb in the Tour of the Alps by the way?

But who will chase? If France will put a random Geniez probably Spain will be alone, and no one of the favourites will try anything before the final wall. i still wonder the reason to put such a climb in the finale, an additional lap on Igls would have been way better, in this way is only a waiting game incentive.

The more i think about the race outcome the more i think the late break will succeed.

 

[Gigs_98]

Why is everybody saying the Australian DS has to take Matthews. I mean yeah, he is a quality rider, but he has 0 chance on this route.

Anyway, am I the only one who was kinda shocked by the cyclingnews article about the Höttinger Höll? They expect a group of 40 to 50 rider to arrive at the bottom of the climb and classics guys like GVA or Wellens could hang on to win in a sprint? Either I am massively overrating this route or the expectations by both the media and apparently the organizers as well (after all it was Rohregger who said that stuff) are completely delusional. Moreover I don't get why they even make such a hard route if they want a 40 to 50 men group at the bottom of the final climb. In that case just make 10 flat laps through Innsbruck before putting one climb in the route and you would get the result you wanted. I don't get this

 

[Red Rick]

Why is everybody saying the Australian DS has to take Matthews. I mean yeah, he is a quality rider, but he has 0 chance on this route.

Anyway, am I the only one who was kinda shocked by the cyclingnews article about the Höttinger Höll? They expect a group of 40 to 50 rider to arrive at the bottom of the climb and classics guys like GVA or Wellens could hang on to win in a sprint? Either I am massively overrating this route or the expectations by both the media and apparently the organizers as well (after all it was Rohregger who said that stuff) are completely delusional. Moreover I don't get why they even make such a hard route if they want a 40 to 50 men group at the bottom of the final climb. In that case just make 10 flat laps through Innsbruck before putting one climb in the route and you would get the result you wanted. I don't get this

Because every Australian has 0% chance on this route, and Matthews is probably one of the best climbers they can select who by the way actually has a big pedigree in one day races AND is in great form.

 

[Sestriere]

Re: Re:

If Matthews will be selected instead of Porte i'm convinced even more that a break with the best climbers among classics riders and second fiddle climbers will go with 3/4 laps to go and no one will chase with the proper pace needed to contain the gap in the waiting game for the final wall. Matthews will be for sure interested in anticipating and without Porte card for the final Australia won't chase.

I'm not so sure. Huge gaps can be gained or lost on the Igls climb, which is hugely in favour of the climbers. The peloton could easily close over a minute on classics rider on the last Igls ascent alone.

Most Worlds RR don't have hills that are longer than 3 minutes, so it's hard to close a gap of 20s. Igls is closer to 20 minutes.

Anyone have the ascent times of the climb in the Tour of the Alps by the way?

The Strava record was set by Pinot during that Tour of the Alps stage in 15:52 min, avg. speed of 26.2 km/h. However, the segment cuts out the first kilometer of the official climb which only has 3.6 %.

https://www.strava.com/segments/11619213

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

If Matthews will be selected instead of Porte i'm convinced even more that a break with the best climbers among classics riders and second fiddle climbers will go with 3/4 laps to go and no one will chase with the proper pace needed to contain the gap in the waiting game for the final wall. Matthews will be for sure interested in anticipating and without Porte card for the final Australia won't chase.

I'm not so sure. Huge gaps can be gained or lost on the Igls climb, which is hugely in favour of the climbers. The peloton could easily close over a minute on classics rider on the last Igls ascent alone.

Most Worlds RR don't have hills that are longer than 3 minutes, so it's hard to close a gap of 20s. Igls is closer to 20 minutes.

Anyone have the ascent times of the climb in the Tour of the Alps by the way?

The Strava record was set by Pinot during that Tour of the Alps stage in 15:52 min, avg. speed of 26.2 km/h. However, the segment cuts out the first kilometer of the official climb which only has 3.6 %.

https://www.strava.com/segments/11619213

So if that first km takes about 1'40 it's 17'30 or there abouts for an all out climb. Probably slower than 18 minutes every time during the actual race.

Seems okay. I thought it was 7.9km instead of 6.9, that's why I thought it was 20 minutes

 

[Flamin]

I just saw that the juniors do their ITT on Tuesday and then the road race on.. Thursday. What's that all about... Trying to tire Remco huh?

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

I just saw that the juniors do their ITT on Tuesday and then the road race on.. Thursday. What's that all about... Trying to tire Remco huh?

2 days should be plenty of time to recover from such an effort considering his age. Its all out, but not that long, so he should be good no doubt.

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

no WC for Richie Porte due to illness https://www.australiancyclingteam.com/news/news-richie-porte-withdraws-from-2018-uci-road-world-championships-due-to-illness

So Matthews comes in? Or go for a pure climber like Ben O'Connor?

Tough call. Matthews has been in incredible form this year when he's not injured, but I can't see him lasting more than 200-220 kms on this course. O'Connor would be plan B behind Haig in his Trentino/Giro form but he hasn't raced for a while now, so how fit is he?

Another option could be McCarthy, who looked good working for Sagan at the Vuelta and can position Haig well for as long as he lasts. Canty or Morton (if he can be bothered) could also offer something if fit.

O'Connor raced the Canadian classics, and just this week in the Italian semi classics - not with any outstanding results (although none of these would really suit him) - was a DNF on Thursday in the Coppa Sabatini - Gran Premio citta di Peccioli. So the fitness should be there.
Canty and Morton have struggled all season, sadly, I'd be surprised if the selectors looked that way.
Simon Clarke?

Simon Clarke is already selected. I guess they may as well take Matthews to punish everyone if they are stupid enough to race like a bunch of sissies.

I just can’t see him getting over that wall with a small enough gap on the real climbers though.

 

[42x16ss]

Why is everybody saying the Australian DS has to take Matthews. I mean yeah, he is a quality rider, but he has 0 chance on this route.

Anyway, am I the only one who was kinda shocked by the cyclingnews article about the Höttinger Höll? They expect a group of 40 to 50 rider to arrive at the bottom of the climb and classics guys like GVA or Wellens could hang on to win in a sprint? Either I am massively overrating this route or the expectations by both the media and apparently the organizers as well (after all it was Rohregger who said that stuff) are completely delusional. Moreover I don't get why they even make such a hard route if they want a 40 to 50 men group at the bottom of the final climb. In that case just make 10 flat laps through Innsbruck before putting one climb in the route and you would get the result you wanted. I don't get this

Because every Australian has 0% chance on this route, and Matthews is probably one of the best climbers they can select who by the way actually has a big pedigree in one day races AND is in great form.

Matthews’ first WT one day win was Quebec. Before that his only one day win was Almeria in 2012. He’s managed to mess up Amstel a couple of times since then though.

His form is excellent, but that last climb - the real climbers will destroy him. It has to be said.

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

I just saw that the juniors do their ITT on Tuesday and then the road race on.. Thursday. What's that all about... Trying to tire Remco huh?

2 days should be plenty of time to recover from such an effort considering his age. Its all out, but not that long, so he should be good no doubt.

Yeah I was kidding with the Remco thing, since I suppose Vacek is also doing the ITT

But it's just strange why it's so close to each other this year.

 

[yaco]

Why is everybody saying the Australian DS has to take Matthews. I mean yeah, he is a quality rider, but he has 0 chance on this route.

Anyway, am I the only one who was kinda shocked by the cyclingnews article about the Höttinger Höll? They expect a group of 40 to 50 rider to arrive at the bottom of the climb and classics guys like GVA or Wellens could hang on to win in a sprint? Either I am massively overrating this route or the expectations by both the media and apparently the organizers as well (after all it was Rohregger who said that stuff) are completely delusional. Moreover I don't get why they even make such a hard route if they want a 40 to 50 men group at the bottom of the final climb. In that case just make 10 flat laps through Innsbruck before putting one climb in the route and you would get the result you wanted. I don't get this

Because every Australian has 0% chance on this route, and Matthews is probably one of the best climbers they can select who by the way actually has a big pedigree in one day races AND is in great form.

Matthews’ first WT one day win was Quebec. Before that his only one day win was Almeria in 2012. He’s managed to mess up Amstel a couple of times since then though.

His form is excellent, but that last climb - the real climbers will destroy him. It has to be said.

Matthews is in the team as a support rider - And he can be a quality support rider.

 

[bambino]

Re: Re:

If Matthews will be selected instead of Porte i'm convinced even more that a break with the best climbers among classics riders and second fiddle climbers will go with 3/4 laps to go and no one will chase with the proper pace needed to contain the gap in the waiting game for the final wall. Matthews will be for sure interested in anticipating and without Porte card for the final Australia won't chase.

I'm not so sure. Huge gaps can be gained or lost on the Igls climb, which is hugely in favour of the climbers. The peloton could easily close over a minute on classics rider on the last Igls ascent alone.

Most Worlds RR don't have hills that are longer than 3 minutes, so it's hard to close a gap of 20s. Igls is closer to 20 minutes.

Anyone have the ascent times of the climb in the Tour of the Alps by the way?

But who will chase? If France will put a random Geniez probably Spain will be alone, and no one of the favourites will try anything before the final wall. i still wonder the reason to put such a climb in the finale, an additional lap on Igls would have been way better, in this way is only a waiting game incentive.

The more i think about the race outcome the more i think the late break will succeed.

There are 2 extremely strong teams which can't afford having Alaphilippe, S. Yates and Valverde fresh at the bottom of the last climb. They are Colombia and The Netherlands. Both have top class climber in good shape the lead with, who can't sprint fast enough (Poels will not win if sprint againts the mentioned). I'm expecting those teams making the race very hard, they have the reason and necessary power to do that.

I would love to see how the classic guys will cope if i.e. Kruijswijk, Dumoulin and Kelderman really drills the last 3-4 laps for Poels.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

If Matthews will be selected instead of Porte i'm convinced even more that a break with the best climbers among classics riders and second fiddle climbers will go with 3/4 laps to go and no one will chase with the proper pace needed to contain the gap in the waiting game for the final wall. Matthews will be for sure interested in anticipating and without Porte card for the final Australia won't chase.

I'm not so sure. Huge gaps can be gained or lost on the Igls climb, which is hugely in favour of the climbers. The peloton could easily close over a minute on classics rider on the last Igls ascent alone.

Most Worlds RR don't have hills that are longer than 3 minutes, so it's hard to close a gap of 20s. Igls is closer to 20 minutes.

Anyone have the ascent times of the climb in the Tour of the Alps by the way?

But who will chase? If France will put a random Geniez probably Spain will be alone, and no one of the favourites will try anything before the final wall. i still wonder the reason to put such a climb in the finale, an additional lap on Igls would have been way better, in this way is only a waiting game incentive.

The more i think about the race outcome the more i think the late break will succeed.

There are 2 extremely strong teams which can't afford having Alaphilippe, S. Yates and Valverde fresh at the bottom of the last climb. They are Colombia and The Netherlands. Both have top class climber in good shape the lead with, who can't sprint fast enough (Poels will not win if sprint againts the mentioned). I'm expecting those teams making the race very hard, they have the reason and necessary power to do that.

I would love to see how the classic guys will cope if i.e. Kruijswijk, Dumoulin and Kelderman really drills the last 3-4 laps for Poels.

I am pretty confident that if they wait for the last hill Alaphilippe and Valverde will be dropped like a stone.

 

[Tim Booth]

TTT start lists
http://www.uci.org/road/events/2018-uci-road-world-championships-tirol-innsbruck

 

[Sestriere]

TTT start lists
http://www.uci.org/road/events/2018-uci-road-world-championships-tirol-innsbruck

BMC clear favourite. Sunweb, Quick-Step and Mitchelton as biggest challengers. Don't see it with Sky this year, Katusha outsiders for a podium spot. I assume Geschke didn't recover from his cold in time as he would probably habe been a better selection than Oomen. Also, what a luxury for BMC not to field riders like Rosskopf, de Marchi, Teuns (very strong at Vuelta) or Bookwalter.

 

[Gigs_98]

TTT start lists
http://www.uci.org/road/events/2018-uci-road-world-championships-tirol-innsbruck

BMC clear favourite. Sunweb, Quick-Step and Mitchelton as biggest challengers. Don't see it with Sky this year, Katusha outsiders for a podium spot. I assume Geschke didn't recover from his cold in time as he would probably habe been a better selection than Oomen. Also, what a luxury for BMC not to field riders like Rosskopf, de Marchi, Teuns (very strong at Vuelta) or Bookwalter.

I think Sky could be pretty good. Don't think they are the favorites but a medal wouldn't surprise me. On another note, lol at the Bora team with 4 Austrians. Full home field advantage

 

[Red Rick]

TTT start lists
http://www.uci.org/road/events/2018-uci-road-world-championships-tirol-innsbruck

BMC clear favourite. Sunweb, Quick-Step and Mitchelton as biggest challengers. Don't see it with Sky this year, Katusha outsiders for a podium spot. I assume Geschke didn't recover from his cold in time as he would probably habe been a better selection than Oomen. Also, what a luxury for BMC not to field riders like Rosskopf, de Marchi, Teuns (very strong at Vuelta) or Bookwalter.

Oomen was there last year too, and this route is a lot harder, which will suit the climber Oomen.

Sky is that team that's always top 3 in the ITTs, always has 3 or more riders in the top 10 of big ITTs, and yet when they have all their top ITTers in a TTT they somehow don't win.

 

[Sestriere]

TTT start lists
http://www.uci.org/road/events/2018-uci-road-world-championships-tirol-innsbruck

BMC clear favourite. Sunweb, Quick-Step and Mitchelton as biggest challengers. Don't see it with Sky this year, Katusha outsiders for a podium spot. I assume Geschke didn't recover from his cold in time as he would probably habe been a better selection than Oomen. Also, what a luxury for BMC not to field riders like Rosskopf, de Marchi, Teuns (very strong at Vuelta) or Bookwalter.

Oomen was there last year too, and this route is a lot harder, which will suit the climber Oomen.

Sky is that team that's always top 3 in the ITTs, always has 3 or more riders in the top 10 of big ITTs, and yet when they have all their top ITTers in a TTT they somehow don't win.

But Geschke did climb and TT very strong this year, while Oomen is generally a mediocre TTer and probably the weak spot of the team. And most of the course is still flat and then one climb, it's not like it's up and down all the time.

 

[May0maniac]

Aru being confirmed for the Italian team is a bit annoying, I'd select him as a reserve and bring both Brambilla and Cataldo, one as an attacker and the other one as a workhorse if you need to set a high tempo on the Igls climb. Visconti instead of Brambilla would also be ok.
It's just a bit annoying that Aru gets a spot without even earning it, he even skipped the NC with the excuse of being sick or something like that.
On the other hand you have someone like Gasparotto who wasn't selected in 2013 or 2014, when he deserved it and was one of the few Italian riders who was able to get a good result in a hilly 250km one day race and in 2014 Ulissi wasn't even allowed to race, so not bringing Gaspa was a bit of a joke.

 

[DNP-Old]

Re: Re:

I just saw that the juniors do their ITT on Tuesday and then the road race on.. Thursday. What's that all about... Trying to tire Remco huh?

2 days should be plenty of time to recover from such an effort considering his age. Its all out, but not that long, so he should be good no doubt.

Yeah I was kidding with the Remco thing, since I suppose Vacek is also doing the ITT

But it's just strange why it's so close to each other this year.

No, Vacek isn't doing the ITT and is only on the list of reserves. He's all in for the road race.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Aru being confirmed for the Italian team is a bit annoying, I'd select him as a reserve and bring both Brambilla and Cataldo, one as an attacker and the other one as a workhorse if you need to set a high tempo on the Igls climb. Visconti instead of Brambilla would also be ok.
It's just a bit annoying that Aru gets a spot without even earning it, he even skipped the NC with the excuse of being sick or something like that.
On the other hand you have someone like Gasparotto who wasn't selected in 2013 or 2014, when he deserved it and was one of the few Italian riders who was able to get a good result in a hilly 250km one day race and in 2014 Ulissi wasn't even allowed to race, so not bringing Gaspa was a bit of a joke.

Formolo finished last today at Memorial Pantani and called it quits for Innsbruck. Aru should have the decency to do the same, finished with Formolo, he's useless. Cataldo and Brambilla for sure, let's see what Cassani will decide during the training camp.

 

[kiszol]

TTT start lists
http://www.uci.org/road/events/2018-uci-road-world-championships-tirol-innsbruck

BMC clear favourite. Sunweb, Quick-Step and Mitchelton as biggest challengers. Don't see it with Sky this year, Katusha outsiders for a podium spot. I assume Geschke didn't recover from his cold in time as he would probably habe been a better selection than Oomen. Also, what a luxury for BMC not to field riders like Rosskopf, de Marchi, Teuns (very strong at Vuelta) or Bookwalter.

I'm not so sure about BMC being the clear favourite. Sunweb has better climbers for the significant climb (Dumoulin, Kelderman and Oomen), so they will surely gain time on BMC on that part. As for the flat Matthews and Andersen are stellar TTers and both has great form. Haga isn't bad for the flats either. If it weren't for the climb I would say BMC but as it is I think it's a tossup.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

It's very much like last year. When everybody was expecting BMC, Quick Step or maybe Sky. And I already said that climb in Bergen would suit Sunweb.

This year same situation. The climb will suit Sunweb more. The only difference with last year is that, in my opinion, Kelderman and Oomen were in better form. And Dumoulin wasn't an unknown after 2 GT's like this year. So there's still some blanks to be filled in.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Re: Re:

I just saw that the juniors do their ITT on Tuesday and then the road race on.. Thursday. What's that all about... Trying to tire Remco huh?

2 days should be plenty of time to recover from such an effort considering his age. Its all out, but not that long, so he should be good no doubt.

Yeah I was kidding with the Remco thing, since I suppose Vacek is also doing the ITT

But it's just strange why it's so close to each other this year.

No, Vacek isn't doing the ITT and is only on the list of reserves. He's all in for the road race.

According to the startlist i posted yesterday or the day before (p36), Vacek is doing the ITT. I found that in a PDF file that was posted earlier this week online.