Merckx index said:
..... Predictably, both the Ukrainians and the separatists deny firing the rocket that seems to have brought it down, which means one of them is at least wrong and maybe lying. I'd bet on the separatists at this point, because it seems that they have shot down several Ukrainian military aircraft at this point, whereas I don't think the Ukrainians have been so busy in that regard. But we will see.
i think you are sincere but unjustifiably hasty if not naive (a quality i am surprised to see in an intelligent scientist like yourself)....
let's be very clear - the full facts of the terrible incident are anything but determined, in fact, they are being investigated and will take time, if ever destined to surface, given the complications of the local circumstances... specifically, the plain went down in the rebel area but
nominally in the property the ukrainian govt considers its own...
what i mean is that the immediate hands-on forensic evidence so essential to the PROPER investigation is - at least partially - NOT in the ukrainian officials hands. it is, considering the latest reports i read, in the rebels hands and thus subject to the russian govt input...
the long story short, the 2 parties possibly responsible for the downing (the rebels and the ukrainian military) shall include the 3d party - russia. they could easily, if they wanted, to affect the catastrophe...from firing a missile from its own territory to having ITS AGENTS to fire from a border-line ukrainian territory...why would the russians do that ? simple !
a no-flight zone over the eastern ukraine would thus be easily accomplished without the expensive (and highly counterproductive) official commitment of their military aviation, ala controversial american precedents in iraq, lybia etc.
sounds brilliant, but frankly, given my limited understanding of the anti-missile satellite technicalities involved, this russian provocation would be easily discoverable and thus very unlikely. iow, if the appropriate fatal missile was fired by the russians, it is easy t0 verify by a competent satellite.
so, who shut down the civil aircraft and by whch means ?
firstly, it is still unclear, if it was indeed shut down as opposed to a technical problem...
second, if it was shut down, which is more than likely, who did it and why ?
in this regard, the ukrainian side's dark motives, or more likely, their plain military incompetence, shall not be discounted.
dont forget a proven international fact that it was a stray ukrainian missile that shut down a civilian plane flying over the black sea from israel to russia..
3dly, though not one single western agency mentioned it, the shooting could have been done by a fighter plane rather than by a ground-to-air missile.
and here's the most mystifying russian theory - some sources reported that vlad putin's plane was approximately in the same airspace at about the same time.
would the ukrainian self-doers, informed but uncontrolled the centre yet hating vlad's guts trying to shoot his plane ? i doubt it, but would not discount it.
in one word, a thorough investigation is needed and we will be well advised to suspect anyone who will come across as impeding the international efforts access.
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