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Mar 13, 2009
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I volunteer helping people in financial difficulty, including applying for personal bankrupcy.

Many of them have revolving loans at outrageous interest rates. This is often the result of despicable lending practices, and a parallel can certainly be made with the Greek situation. I am not defending the lenders, in fact I condemn them.

The Bank of France establishes an individual plan, sometimes including erasing part or most of the debt and establishing a repayment structure that the person can follow while still having the means to live.

One condition of this plan is that the person cannot have any additional debt.

If this was applied to Greece, that would seem to me to be an excellent solution - but they would have to live within their means going forward which I am not sure they are prepared to do.

To a certain degree I am playing the devils advocate here. I am not a specialist on the Greek situation but often (not on these forums!) the anti-austerity proponents use simplistic and anti-finance arguments that do not address the real problem, that is how can Greece become responsable in the management of it's budget and still maintain a healthy economy and decent living conditions.
 
Jul 24, 2011
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Re: Re:

python said:
frenchfry said:
python said:
if i was a greek citizen, i'd vote 'no' with both hands...this is after starting out opinion-less, just attempting to learn from both sides...

it blows my mind, why the supposedly well educated, smart people running the financial institutions are oblivious to a simple fact that the austerity model cant work and wont work in/under certain conditions.

can the model be imposed, which is basically being forced down the throat of a weak nation ?

of course, it can? . just as would typically happen between the strong and weak...but since there is nothing but a trail of the model's failures, it is safe to bet that another imposition on greece will fail too.

i dont know the solution. but it seems the eu institutions, perhaps even the entire west-dominated financial structures have arrived at the dead end...
It depends what your definition of austerity is. In France, government spending increases 5-6% each year despite almost 0% inflation and 20% deficits, yet many decry that we are subjected to austerity. If austerity means not spending more than your revenue, I don't understand what is so bad about that.

Many say that austerity hasn't worked, yet it seems to me that certain countries like Greece have reduced their deficits significantly in only a few years thanks to "austerity". Deficit spending has been practiced for decades by many countries and look at the mess it has got us in. If overspending was the answer we should be sitting pretty right now - but we aren't.

I am not saying that nothing should be done to help Greece, but they have to realise that if they don't get their budget balanced nobody will want to help them. Would you lend them money knowing that they would flush it down the toilet and never pay you back?
i may add some more thought to your question later (though i think it's a wrong question here), but no, i would not lend in the situation you described....

i am not an economist, but i do know some basics about balancing a budget and living in accordance with ones means...i also believe that some, if not most, do not.

countries are like people (a complex separate subject)...some are good at savings and building wealth, others aren't....when the media talks austerity for greece they usually stress the cuts for their public sector spending IGNORING the other side of the coin -a realistic, workable stimulus for growth and thus increased budget income.

this is the cornerstone - austerity vs the economy stimulus, their proper balancing SIMULTANEOUSLY.

i know for a fact that many in france resent the german approach to austerity.

my point is simply that in the case of greece, though it's a very difficult problem, there is a solution that would take into account both the cultural/traditional inefficiencies of their way of doing business AND stimulating their strong economic sides like tourism, textiles etc..of course, a fundamental overhaul would be needed too but a slow one, very slow given the reality.

during the entire crisis we head only of the overspending etc.

i am reckoning, but perhaps the entire idea of the huge eu and its eurozone contains too many incompatible elements with too many divergent (culturally, mentally, emotionally) views on business and economy.

in one word, both the eu and greece IMO would gain from grexit and perhaps from some others going their own way.

in stead, we hear the animalistic fear of the eu trimming. imo it would be nothing but healthy...but course, germany would then lose its grip on the 'peaceful' dominance of europe. others, remembering the 'other' ways of the german dominance cowardly play along. france imo is one of them.
Countries are not like people, they're more like companies who also have permanent debt.

According to Keynesian economics it's very stupid to do so much austerity in times of crises. Yes, they needed structural reforms. Yes, they had way too much debt. But such structural reforms need to be accompanied with some (fiscal) stimulus if you don't want to shrink the whole economy by ... 40%? What now? Structural unemployment, structural decrease of GDP by enormous percentages, which only lead to less income for the government. Will they get the money back now? No, still not.
 
Mar 13, 2009
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Countries are not like people, they're more like companies who also have permanent debt.

This a common argument used by French politicians who are firm believers in unbridled spending and absolutely no fiscal responsibity. Spending already 20% greater than revenues? No problem, lets increase that dramatically in order to show the electors just how generous we are and get votes.

Of course there are differences between individuals and countries, but there are also similarities. Managing a budget should be universal. Companies who consistently spend far more than they earn and have debt that increases significantly year after year seldom last very long. Permanant debt is generally for investments, and is serviced by net revenues generated by those investments. Countries tend to borrow for current expenses that often aren't necessary.

This might not be relevant, but it makes me laugh when the "economic benefits" of the Olympics are cited as a reason to bid for them repeatedly as France does. Just how did that work out for the Greeks? We are chomping at the bit to build new multi-billion euro stadiums that will be used for 2 weeks and never again even though we are drowning under a debtload that is leading to disaster.
 
Jul 4, 2009
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....another kick at the dead horse....this a fairly succinct thingee...
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"By 2008 the neoliberal project that had been propelled by ***, wishful thinking and copious quantities of bank money freed from any pretense that it could ever be repaid was coming unwound. The same ‘favor’ that American mortgage lenders had done communities of color and exurbs in the U.S. found peripheral Europe’s political ‘leaders’ and plutocrats ready, willing and able to borrow money that stood little chance of being repaid by them. As soon as it became publicly evident that trillions in bank loans were unlikely to be repaid bankers, and the government officials who work for them, looked around to see what groups were (1) able to pay interest, and eventually principal, on debt that they had seen no direct benefit from, and (2) lacked the political power to resist being forced to repay it.

Lest this seem too diabolical to be plausible, this is the basic lending model that has been used by Western banks and backed by Western governments and the ‘independent’ institutions they control for some six decades now. The U.S., Germany or France have long lent money for infrastructure projects, agricultural ‘upgrades’ like the Green Revolution and direct purchases of technology and / or munitions. This indebted the citizens-by-degree of both internally and externally organized nation-states while making large profits for the corporations who could sell their wares thanks to the ‘largesse’ of Western states and banks. This practice in some measure explains how corrupt and / or incompetent government officials and plutocrats in Greece managed to line their own pockets while permanently indebting the good citizens of that storied nation."
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...so take that bolded bit and run it across the lending money to a neighbour canard and cross reference with odious debt and a solution that is "economically illiterate" and slam that into your pipe and smoke it....for most reasonable folks the result will be recognized as an acrid stench but of course ymmv...

Cheers

....from... http://beta.counterpunch.org/2015/07/03/greece-and-global-class-war/
 
Mar 13, 2009
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Re:

blutto said:
....another kick at the dead horse....this a fairly succinct thingee...
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"By 2008 the neoliberal project that had been propelled by ***, wishful thinking and copious quantities of bank money freed from any pretense that it could ever be repaid was coming unwound. The same ‘favor’ that American mortgage lenders had done communities of color and exurbs in the U.S. found peripheral Europe’s political ‘leaders’ and plutocrats ready, willing and able to borrow money that stood little chance of being repaid by them. As soon as it became publicly evident that trillions in bank loans were unlikely to be repaid bankers, and the government officials who work for them, looked around to see what groups were (1) able to pay interest, and eventually principal, on debt that they had seen no direct benefit from, and (2) lacked the political power to resist being forced to repay it.

Lest this seem too diabolical to be plausible, this is the basic lending model that has been used by Western banks and backed by Western governments and the ‘independent’ institutions they control for some six decades now. The U.S., Germany or France have long lent money for infrastructure projects, agricultural ‘upgrades’ like the Green Revolution and direct purchases of technology and / or munitions. This indebted the citizens-by-degree of both internally and externally organized nation-states while making large profits for the corporations who could sell their wares thanks to the ‘largesse’ of Western states and banks. This practice in some measure explains how corrupt and / or incompetent government officials and plutocrats in Greece managed to line their own pockets while permanently indebting the good citizens of that storied nation."
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...so take that bolded bit and run it across the lending money to a neighbour canard and cross reference with odious debt and a solution that is "economically illiterate" and slam that into your pipe and smoke it....for most reasonable folks the result will be recognized as an acrid stench but of course ymmv...

Cheers

....from... http://beta.counterpunch.org/2015/07/03/greece-and-global-class-war/

I agree that we have been collectively screwed by our politicians and their corporate cronies. The scary thing is we continue to vote for the same morally corrupt individuals - they have managed to eliminate any opposition to the corrupt system they have created.
 
Jun 22, 2009
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First unofficial exit predictions suggest a 52-48 'no' vote in Greece. Official exit polls based prediction expected around two hours from now. As of right now, it's too close to call.
 
Jun 28, 2015
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Re: Re:

blutto said:
ScienceIsCool said:
python said:
if i was a greek citizen, i'd vote 'no' with both hands...this is after starting out opinion-less, just attempting to learn from both sides...

it blows my mind, why the supposedly well educated, smart people running the financial institutions are oblivious to a simple fact that the austerity model cant work and wont work in/under certain conditions.

can the model be imposed, which is basically being forced down the throat of a weak nation ?

of course, it can? . just as would typically happen between the strong and weak...but since there is nothing but a trail of the model's failures, it is safe to bet that another imposition on greece will fail too.

i dont know the solution. but it seems the eu institutions, perhaps even the entire west-dominated financial structures have arrived at the dead end...

But austerity does work. Not to stabilize a country, no. It's designed to crush labor and suppress wages so that BMW can put a factory in Athens and pay a quarter of what they pay in Bavaria. It's designed to create conditions so desperate that the government has to sell of its resources; ports, highways, water, parks, etc to exploitive rentiers.

Yes, austerity works very, very well. And the Troika is doing *everything* they can to implement it.

John Swanson

....bingo! we have a winner!...

Cheers
yes indeed!
 
Jun 22, 2009
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I also started out neutral-ish about the referendum, despite being instinctively on Syriza's 'side'. Having read and thought a great deal about this over the last week, I have come to understand the very important symbolism attached to the referendum. I hope for a no, though it looks like either side will only win by a very small margin.
 
May 29, 2011
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20% of the ballots have been counted, and the No is leading 60 to Yes 40.

If "No" wins, as seems to be likely right now, Syriza have effectively gained a mandate to keep confronting the Troika in a way that might lead to exiting the Eurozone. This has not been the case thus far, as Syriza won the election on a platform that was adamant on not breaking with the EMU. Question #1 is whether they want this mandate or are indeed willing to pursue it. Question #2 is how the Troika reacts.

Here's a graph charting a number of possible outcomes: http://assets.bwbx.io/images/iV3Io7UWuIgw/v1/-1x-1.png

Live here, among other places, and of course twitter: http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jul/05/greeces-eurozone-future-in-the-balance-as-referendum-gets-under-way--eu-euro-bailout-live
 
Jun 22, 2009
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Greece’s interior ministry has released an official projection, showing that the no side is set to win by 61%.

That is a landslide result for the government, which had urged people to reject the bailout proposals made by lenders.
 
Jul 4, 2009
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....so the question at this point is.....now what?.....though methinks the IMF statement from a few days ago may be the way out of this, sort of the bigs Plan B ( that being said the timing of that statement is , uhhh, kinda weird....and if there is any agreement that comes out of that the fine print could well make for some very interesting reading because it may end up as just more $h!t albeit in a different wrapping......)

....oh and btw hope that those early returns/reports hold true....gonna be vey interesting what the repercussions are going to be....for Greece, are they going to get their act together and become Iceland on the Mediterranean...for the EU, does it fall apart now, or when the other weaker EU nations start tottering further...and will we see another Lehman event in the financial world....

Cheers
 
Jul 4, 2009
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...and while we wait for the final results of the Greek referendum here is some light reading to help one and all to pass the time...
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"So Goldman Sachs, the world's greatest and smuggest investment bank, has been sued for fraud by the American Securities and Exchange Commission. Legally, the case hangs on a technicality.

Morally, however, the Goldman Sachs case may turn into a final referendum on the greed-is-good ethos that conquered America sometime in the 80s – and in the years since has aped other horrifying American trends such as boybands and reality shows in spreading across the western world like a venereal disease.

When Britain and other countries were engulfed in the flood of defaults and derivative losses that emerged from the collapse of the American housing bubble two years ago, few people understood that the crash had its roots in the lunatic greed-centered objectivist religion, fostered back in the 50s and 60s by ponderous emigre novelist Ayn Rand.

While, outside of America, Russian-born Rand is probably best known for being the unfunniest person western civilisation has seen since maybe Goebbels or Jack the Ripper (63 out of 100 colobus monkeys recently forced to read Atlas Shrugged in a laboratory setting died of boredom-induced aneurysms), in America Rand is upheld as an intellectual giant of limitless wisdom. Here in the States, her ideas are roundly worshipped even by people who've never read her books oreven heard of her. The rightwing "Tea Party" movement is just one example of an entire demographic that has been inspired to mass protest by Rand without even knowing it.

Last summer I wrote a brutally negative article about Goldman Sachs for Rolling Stone magazine (I called the bank a "great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity") that unexpectedly sparked a heated national debate. On one side of the debate were people like me, who believed that Goldman is little better than a criminal enterprise that earns its billions by bilking the market, the government, and even its own clients in a bewildering variety of complex financial scams.

On the other side of the debate were the people who argued Goldman wasn't guilty of anything except being "too smart" and really, really good at making money. This side of the argument was based almost entirely on the Randian belief system, under which the leaders of Goldman Sachs appear not as the cheap swindlers they look like to me, but idealised heroes, the saviours of society."

....and this delicious bit...

"Now, the instruments in question in this deal – collateralised debt obligations and credit default swaps – fall into the category of derivatives, which are virtually unregulated in the US thanks in large part to the effort of gremlinish former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, who as a young man was close to Rand and remained a staunch Randian his whole life. In the late 90s, Greenspan lobbied hard for the passage of a law that came to be called the Commodity Futures Modernisation Act of 2000, a monster of a bill that among other things deregulated the sort of interest-rate swaps Goldman used in its now-infamous dealings with Greece.

Both the Paulson deal and the Greece deal were examples of Goldman making millions by bending over their own business partners. In the Paulson deal the suckers were European banks such as ABN-Amro and IKB, which were never told that the stuff Goldman was cheerfully selling to them was, in effect, designed to implode; in the Greece deal, Goldman hilariously used exotic swaps to help the country mask its financial problems, then turned right around and bet against the country by shorting Greece's debt.

[/b][/b]
....from... http://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/apr/24/will-goldman-prove-greed-is-god

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"Who are the real villains on Wall Street? When it comes to institutionalized greed and corruption, nothing tops the too-big-to-fail banks like JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. But these financial giants form only one part of the financial oligarchy. Lurking in the shadows are aggressive hedge funds that are just as lethal to our economic well being. If Goldman Sachs is a vampire squid, as Matt Taibbi so aptly named it, then hedge funds are like schools of piranhas or sharks, eager to strip the financial carcass to the bone.

The sharks at this very moment are circling Greece, waiting to devour that nation’s resources. To understand this attack we need to enter into the rotting innards of our financial system.

But aren’t the Greeks lazy?

Let’s starts with a closer look at why Greece has accumulated so much debt. The answer is not because they sit around sipping retsina rather than working. Instead it has everything to do with the attempt of Europe to improve the lot of the Greek people so they would embrace democracy. Let’s not forget that from 1967 to 1974 Greece was ruled by a military junta that inflicted enormous pain on its people. Helping the Greek people escape poverty was critically important. Greece’s entry into the European Union and the access to capital it provided, allowed the Greek people to rebuild the foundations of prosperity and democracy.

Of course, our vampire squid banks also played a critical role in exacerbating the debt problem. When Greece hit the debt limits set by the EU, large U.S. banks profited mightily by structuring loans to Greece to skirt those rules.

But the biggest blow came from the 2008 financial crash, which was wholly caused by Wall Street’s reckless gambling spree. When the world economy nearly collapsed into another Great Depression, the weaker economies in the EU took the biggest hit. Ireland, Portugal and Greece suffered enormous job loss and massive declines in tax revenues. These countries became the victims of the vast housing bubble that was pumped up by Wall Street's fantasy financial schemes. Yes, they had accumulated too much debt, but the problem would have been manageable were it not for the Wall Street-created crash.

Enter the piranha hedge funds

Hedge funds are lightly regulated, privately managed investment funds created and designed for the super-rich, who expect to get much higher rates of return than the rest of us. While you and I are lucky to see a 2 percent increase in our 401ks, hedge funds hope to see gains far in excess of 10 percent. Pension funds and endowments have also followed the super-rich into these funds to gain access to these outsized returns. There are 8,000 or so hedge funds that now manage a total of nearly $2 trillion.

But making these super-profits doesn’t come easy. Hedge funds don’t just get lucky on a few stocks or bonds. They look for an edge, and more than a few go over the edge by engaging in criminal activity like insider trading. Others hope to get to the Promised Land by being tough SOBs who don’t think twice about impoverishing people. Those SOB hedge funds are circling Greece right now, doing all they can to get their hands on the money the European Union wants to lend Greece to reduce its long-term debt problems.

Here’s the play: Greece does not have enough money to pay off the loans that are coming due in the next year. So the EU and the International Monetary Fund have assembled a bailout package to help Greece make those payments. In exchange, the Greek people are being asked to suffer through enormous cuts in government spending – which means cuts in jobs, incomes, healthcare, pensions and public education. Everyday citizens are making enormous sacrifices."

....and...

"But the European Union also insists that the bond holders of Greek debt take a hit. After all, under the supposed rules of capitalism, if you make a bad loan, you suffer the losses. So the EU wants to recall the old bonds and replace them with new ones at lower interest rates more suited to Greece’s financial condition. Imagine that! Financial elites are being asked to sacrifice a bit to pay for the problems they helped to create.

Well guess what? The elites don’t like it. You see, hedge funds have been buying up Greek bonds at steep discounts. They want to milk the deal for as much as possible. So they are refusing to accept what the EU is offering. The hedge funds want to capture as much of the bailout money as possible. They could care less if the Greek people suffer. (Think Bain.)

But wait -- why are the hedge funds refusing the offer when the alternative is having Greece default on the very bonds the hedge funds now own? If they continue to hold out, won’t the hedge funds risk ending up with nothing at all?

Here’s where we dive into rotten core of “modern finance.” These hedge funds think they have covered their bets by taking out financial insurance on their bonds, which would pay them the full value of the bonds (not just the discounted price) if Greece defaults. (These insurance policies are called credit default swaps, and are issued usually by big banks that profit on the insurance premiums.)

So the hedge funds that are playing hardball think they have their bets covered. If Greece doesn’t give them a better deal on their bonds, the hedge funds will welcome a default in order to collect fully on their financial insurance policies.

The nuclear option

There’s only one little problem: The entire financial system might collapse, including our own, if Greece defaults. That’s because no one is sure if all the financial insurance can actually be paid off. It could be like AIG all over again, when that giant insurance company couldn’t pay off its financial insurance policies. If one big bank fails to deliver it could set off a chain reaction of financial defaults around the globe. "

....and...

"As Marshall Auerbach, my financial guru, points out, it’s very much like exercising the nuclear option.


Credit default swaps [financial insurance policies] are to "hedging" credit exposure what nuclear weapons are to "hedging" a nation's defense requirements. Yes, you pay less money than equipping a huge army, but if you use the nukes, everything blows up. Much the same applies with credit default swaps.

In the old days, bankers basically didn't bet against their clients. If the borrower was successful, the banker was successful as the loan made money. If you thought the credit risk was bad, you didn't hedge it by buying a credit default swap; you simply refused to extend the loan (or demanded a lot of collateral against which the loan was secured). Nowadays, no credit analysis is done and "hedging" is done through these toxic instruments which have no social value and create a hugely destabilizing financial system.

To put it more bluntly, the sharks are using financial nuclear blackmail to milk billions out of the Greek people. They can get away with it because the EU and America are enormously fearful that a Greek default will vaporize the global financial system – yet again.



....from... http://www.alternet.org/story/153795/vampire_hedge_funds_are_sucking_greece_dry

Cheers
 
Jul 4, 2009
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"Krugman: Europe Wins

Europe Wins

Tsipras and Syriza have won big in the referendum, strengthening their hand for whatever comes next. But they’re not the only winners: I would argue that Europe, and the European idea, just won big — at least in the sense of dodging a bullet.

I know that’s not how most people see it. But think of it this way: we have just witnessed Greece stand up to a truly vile campaign of bullying and intimidation, an attempt to scare the Greek public, not just into accepting creditor demands, but into getting rid of their government. It was a shameful moment in modern European history, and would have set a truly ugly precedent if it had succeeded.

But it didn’t. You don’t have to love Syriza, or believe that they know what they’re doing — it’s not clear that they do, although the troika has been even worse — to believe that European institutions have just been saved from their own worst instincts. If Greece had been forced into line by financial fear mongering, Europe would have sinned in a way that would sully its reputation for generations. Instead, it’s something we can, perhaps, eventually regard as an aberration.

And if Greece ends up exiting the euro? There’s actually a pretty good case for Grexit now — and in any case, democracy matters more than any currency arrangement."

Cheers
 
Sep 25, 2009
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where do greece and the eu go next ?

imo the iterations of he next few days, perhaps weeks, are calculable, that is, predictable if the rational political model (which in turn is based on the eu decision-making record) is to be followed...

1st of all, the tsipras govt has now received a clear mandate to continue sticking to its original position of debt restructuring 'or else'... obviously, despite the massive campaign of browbeating and intimidation, tsipras has proved a strong enough leader to stick to his guns up to the least desirable option - 'or else' - that is, exiting the eurozone if the shyt hits the fan. his position is very clear; 'give us a relief we consider fair and we will play the old game according to the current eu rules'

the eu position is now the key.

being the unwieldy, slow-moving conglomerate the eu/eurozone politokos will spend the next few days consulting. it would be incomprehensible, if merkel did not know a week ago that the greek vote will go as it did. thus, she must have had a contingency plan. the trick is now to convince the other eu/eurozone members to follow the geman plan.

what is the german plan ?

my hunch, basically a speculation, it is a slow, gradual accommodation of the greeks as opposed to the previous harsh, almost bossy position. if germany could act unilaterally, i am sure, it would pursue the grexit, but the others, particularly in spain, italy, portugal and ireland imo are too scared of the grexit inspiring their domestic eurosceptics.

the most interesting impact is the us govt's position. i could be mistaken - and this may explain the imf's belated 'admissions' of the greek situation - the obama govt is actively working to prevent the grexit. the us stands to lose too much in term of the nato weakening should the greeks go their own way.

thus i see the greeks and the eu coming to an uneasy accommodation. which in reality, will be nothing but kicking the can down the road.
 
Aug 5, 2009
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Re:

blutto said:
"Krugman: Europe Wins

Europe Wins

Tsipras and Syriza have won big in the referendum, strengthening their hand for whatever comes next. But they’re not the only winners: I would argue that Europe, and the European idea, just won big — at least in the sense of dodging a bullet.

I know that’s not how most people see it. But think of it this way: we have just witnessed Greece stand up to a truly vile campaign of bullying and intimidation, an attempt to scare the Greek public, not just into accepting creditor demands, but into getting rid of their government. It was a shameful moment in modern European history, and would have set a truly ugly precedent if it had succeeded.

But it didn’t. You don’t have to love Syriza, or believe that they know what they’re doing — it’s not clear that they do, although the troika has been even worse — to believe that European institutions have just been saved from their own worst instincts. If Greece had been forced into line by financial fear mongering, Europe would have sinned in a way that would sully its reputation for generations. Instead, it’s something we can, perhaps, eventually regard as an aberration.

And if Greece ends up exiting the euro? There’s actually a pretty good case for Grexit now — and in any case, democracy matters more than any currency arrangement."

Cheers

I heard that Greece no longer has the means or ability to print it's old currency if it comes down to that. Something else they will need help with.
 
Jul 4, 2009
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....the levels of nonsense that are part of this just keep revealing themselves....
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"This Is Why The Euro Is Finished

The IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis report on Greece that came out this week has caused a big stir. We now know that the Fund’s analysts confirm what Syriza has been saying ever since they came to power 5 months ago: Greece needs debt relief, lots of it, and fast.

We also know that Europe tried to silence the report. But what’s most interesting is that this has been going on for months, as per Reuters. Ergo, the IMF has known about the -preliminary- analysis for months, and kept silent, while at the same time ‘negotiating’ with Greece on austerity and bailouts.

And if you dig a bit deeper still, there’s no avoiding the fact that the IMF hasn’t merely known this for months, it’s known it for years. The Greek Parliamentary Debt Committee reported three weeks ago that it has in its possession an IMF document from 2010(!) that confirms the Fund knew even at that point in time.

That is to say, it already knew back then that the bailout executed in 2010 would push Greece even further into debt. Which is the exact opposite of what the bailout was supposed to do.

The 2010 bailout was the one that allowed private French, Dutch and German banks to transfer their liabilities to the Greek public sector, and indirectly to the entire eurozone‘s public sector. There was no debt restructuring in that deal.

Reuters yesterday reported that “Publication of the draft Debt Sustainability Analysis laid bare a dispute between Brussels and [the IMF] that has been simmering behind closed doors for months."

....from... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-04/why-euro-finished

Cheers
 
Sep 25, 2009
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the 1st significant victim of the greek referendum - somewhat surprizingly, their finance minister resigned this morning. many called him the spirit and the heart of the greek position.

... listening to france24 and DW. their commentators say the chap was too offensive a negotiator. others say, he was just a political sacrificial lamb to improve tsipras' negotiating stance...the tone of comments on the immediate outcome of the referendum varied from skeptical (DW) to a more humanitarian (france 24).

based on the european markets behavior atm (they are of course down), there does not appear a sense of mass fear many predicted.
 
Apr 15, 2014
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Go Greece!
About time someone stood up to the dictorship of unelected institutions who defend pseudo-unidentified interests.
 
Jul 24, 2011
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The first 'bailout' was just indirect state support for the banks. That has already been mentioned several times.


Two great pieces on that mainlymacro blog again :)
 
Mar 11, 2009
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Many months ago it was speculated this would happen, several people said it. But few people dared predict what would come next. Only random, radical speculation, some of it "sky is falling" but without specifics.

So, what's, really next? Does Greece completely remove itself from the Euro? Do they radically shift to some sort of shared resources socialism? Communism? Even if they just make that threat, what is the reaction from the IMF? Germany and the rest of the Euro zone? If they forgive Greece's debt, what damage does that to do the Euro? Global markets? And what reprucusdions follow?

Interestingly enough, it was the post WWII forgiveness of debt that helped then West Germany prosper, and a hard line demand post WWI to not forgive that lead to Germany's depression and rise of the third reich. I don't see that happening in Greece, however...
 
Jul 4, 2009
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....the following from... http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=31294#more-31294

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"The IMF has a particular criminality in all of this. They should be paying out massive damages rather than bullying nations into creating more poverty and taking any revenue that nation can raise to pay back so-called ‘debts’.

The fact that after the negotiations were called off, the IMF released under pressure from the US (who are the biggest funders of the IMF) to publish the – Greece: Preliminary Draft Debt Sustainability Analysis – (July 2, 2015), shows how political all this has been.

The analysis should have formed a core part of the negotiations given it showed how bleak the debt situation was for Greece in the long-term. I also note that the IMF was explicitly lobbied by the European Commission not to release this Report.

Groupthink hates information. Groupthink hates anything that contests or undermines the prevailing ideological viewpoint. Groupthink, though a bullying mob rule is, in fact, a highly insecure organisational state.

Information is power. The European Commission hated the idea that the IMF would come clean on what they thought was the reality of the Greek situation. That may not be the actual reality, given the IMF is prone to massive errors itself.

But the point is that the European Commission knew the information would highlight their bastardry in the negotiations process leading up to the referendum and weaken their claims that a YES vote was essential for future Greek prosperity.

So while the Eurofin ministers were lying about what the demands they were making on the Greeks were about (Dijsselbloem had the temerity and gall to actually claim they were not asking for pension cuts), the IMF was revealing why they were refusing to talk about debt relief for the Greeks.

Why? Because even the IMF realises that it has to be written off or delayed for the next two decades or so.

But despite all of that, the real issue which is a Eurozone-wide issue is a lack of aggregate spending (demand) which is causing output gaps (actual output relative to potential) to remain at excessively large levels."

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.....the highlighted bit is a little curious since it had previously been reported that the US had pushed hard for the original bailout package....so the question is, why the change? ....

Cheers
 
Jun 15, 2009
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Version 1:

The ECB helps the Greek banks for the period of the forthcoming new negotiations "above water".
While behind closed doors at the EU Dictatorship Headquarters (Bruxlles), an unprecedented "cut and thrust" will be held. At the end, a concession to Greece will be made (speak: A major cut of their debts, which is "no problem" since the risks are already out of the books from banks in France, Germany, etc, and transferred to taxpayers all over Europe, especially Germany).
This starts a major government crisis in Germany that ends with the resignation of Merkel and new elections this year.

Over the next five years the Greece example is taken as blueprint by other countries > the euro plummets, and Germany returns to DM.

Version 2:

The ECB helps the Greek banks for the period of the forthcoming new negotiations "above water".
While behind closed doors at the EU Dictatorship Headquarters (Bruxlles), an unprecedented "cut and thrust" will be held. At the end Germany "prevails" with unyielding hardness: The Greeks are expelled from the euro (breaking all laws, which happened up to now anyway, so nobody really cares).
Greece announces, Argentina-like, stopping to serve the creditors (the result is the same as in version 1, with the only difference being, they don´t have the "yes" from their creditors. Which is "no problem" since the risks are already out of the books from banks in France, Germany, etc, and transferred to taxpayers all over Europe, especially Germany).
Greece carries out a currency reform, goes back to their drachmas.
Russia and China support Greece with Euros to pay necessary import bills.
Over the next five years the Greece example is taken as blueprint by other countries > the euro plummets, and Germany returns to DM.

Either way, hard working european taxpayers who were held hostage lose (as always). The banksters win (as always). The democracy won (but only once, and only in Greece).
Those responsiple for this EU lunacy are thrown away, living off their pensions in far away islands or took high paid jobs at those companies who are guilty of this mess: Goldmann Sachs & Co...
 
Jul 4, 2009
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...from the mainlymacro site ( many thanks for bringing our attention to that site btw )...
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"So what went wrong with Greece? Remember the Troika made a huge mistake in using their citizens’ money to lend to Greece so Greece could partially repay these private sector creditors - that is where most of the Troika’s rescue package went. The IMF’s own internal analysis was deeply flawed (being predictably wrong in how austerity would impact on the Greek economy), and even then the deal failed its own tests, so special dispensation had to be made.

The IMF should have been very worried about motivations here. After all, many of these creditors were banks from European countries, so the motivations of those bailing out these creditors were conflicted to say the least. They were nevertheless persuaded to go along because of fears of contagion. If the worry was contagion to other countries governments that was an obvious mistake, because it happened anyway but could have been solved ‘at a stroke’ by the ECB (as it eventually was). If the worry was a collapse in the European banking system, then that was the responsibility of the governments concerned, and not the Greek people.
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http://mainlymacro.blogspot.nl/2015/07/greece-and-political-capture-of-imf.html

....the cynic in me says those were not mistakes but part of the plan all along....and now that these issues become more common knowledge wondering how this will affect the leaders who drove the original agreement because this is a stack of really dirty laundry.....like is there jail time in the future of anyone associated with this mess...

Cheers
 
Jul 24, 2011
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The strange thing is that the Greek government is being framed as extremely left wing, while their proposals have been mainly consistent with mainstream New Keynesian economists like the guy from the blog (prof Wren-Lewis), Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz. They all criticize Troika (or 'the institutions') for their behavior and policies in the Greek case. And problems and mistakes within the Eurozone from the beginning.
 
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