World Politics

[python]

a major military escalation is taking place...ukraine is about to impose a martial law over the entire country. i found this brirish article both informative (with maps) and attempting to sort out both sides versions objectively.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46340283

in summary.
3 ukrainian warships attempted to pass a strait currently controlled by russia. the warships were told to stop by the coast guard as, according to russia, they were in their 12 mile zone territorial waters (ukraine does not recognize russian water) the ships ignored the commands and were fired upon with onboard casualties. the ships were seized.

 

[Robert5091]

He said, she said ... and "all foreign policy is domestic policy".
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46340283

Under a 2003 treaty between the governments in Moscow and Kiev, the Kerch Strait and the Sea of Azov are shared territorial waters.
...
Ukraine says that it informed the Russians in advance of its plan to move its ships through the sea to Mariupol.
...
There have been growing tensions between the two sides over access to the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

In recent months, Russia has begun inspecting all vessels sailing to or from Ukrainian ports.

The inspections began soon after Ukraine detained a fishing vessel from Crimea in March. Moscow says the checks are necessary for security reasons, pointing to a potential threat to the Kerch bridge from Ukrainian radicals.
...
Martial law could give the government the power to restrict public demonstrations, regulate the media, suspend elections, and oblige citizens to carry out "socially necessary" tasks such as working at a defence facility, local media report.

Ukraine's parliament will discuss the proposal at 16:00 local time (14:00 GMT).

If approved, it would be the first time Ukraine has enacted martial law since the beginning of the Ukraine-Russia conflict in 2014.

However, politicians are split on the issue, with some expressing concern that it could lead to the 2019 presidential and parliamentary elections being cancelled.

 

[python]

my own tentative evaluation of the above escalation.

similar things took place in the south china sea many times. but i do not recall any shooting. china was wise not to face a huge naval power. ukraine is not.

if knowing in advance that ignoring a warning from a militarily superior side may produce the use of force, then a total ignoring of the warning, may be interpreted as an invitation for the force. or a deliberate provocation in plain speak.

that russia took up the open challenge THIS TIME (according to the above article, they were more restrained before) may indicate either the readiness for a wider conflict or a miscalculation on the either side. my hunch is it's the serious signal. just as firm as a no-looking-back acquisition of crimea 4 years ago. hard to calculate who is going to suffer more, but, besides the ineffective sanctions, the west cant really do much. except telling the uki prez to cool off. or ukraine may find itself permanently short of a lot more territory ?

 

[Robert5091]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46352367

After heated debate in Ukraine's parliament, 276 lawmakers voted in favour of martial law covering:

- Five regions bordering Russian territory
- Two regions bordering Moldova's breakaway Transdnistria region (Ergh? why this?)
- Three regions on the Black Sea/Sea of Azov coast

Thirty lawmakers voted against the move. Martial law will enter into force at 09:00 local time (07:00 GMT) on 28 November and will end on 27 December.

The authorities can now restrict public rallies and regulate the media.
...
In recent weeks, two Ukrainian vessels passed through the Kerch Straight without incident.
...
There have been growing tensions between the two sides over navigation in the area.

Russia has recently begun inspecting all vessels sailing to or from Ukrainian ports in the Sea of Azov.

This began after Ukraine detained a fishing vessel from Crimea in March. Moscow also says the checks are necessary for security reasons.

Are the Russians suspecting that the Ukrainians are re-enforcing the military for a re-take of Russian controlled Crimea & Eastern Ukraine?

 

[movingtarget]

The industrial city of Mariupol is close to the disputed zone. The train line is still open but the port is important to Ukraine. Putin just testing the waters for the response from the West or something else in mind ?

 

[python]

Re:

The industrial city of Mariupol is close to the disputed zone. The train line is still open but the port is important to Ukraine. Putin just testing the waters for the response from the West or something else in mind ?

i dont know who was testing whose waters...

since its rather useless to take either side's versions in search of what really happened, yesterday i watched a couple 'round-tables' on france 24, DW and CGTN...some experts explained that based on the existing international and bilateral agreements, BOTH can claim a point in terms of the right of passage/denying the right through that strait. the ukrainians did NOT need the explicit russian permission to pass, but rather just inform them. thus the russian claim of having received no advance request, even if true, is a weak argument. at the same time, the russians had the right to inspect any ship that would stray into their territorial waters. particularly at a time when the ukrainians threatened to blow up the new bridge across the strait. and the ukrainians DID pass into their territorial waters as it appears w/o ill intent.

the dog was in the uki reaction to a warning to stop. mind you, these were ukrainian warships, not some civil boats. for a military vessel to stop on the demands of another military, it is a big deal where the national pride, military discipline and common sense DONT mix well.

it is my understanding that the ukrainians counted on their ships military status to feel they weren't bound by the russian military orders. IOW, the ukis planned to ignore a warning if issued. as such, this element i would NOT call a ukrainian provocation, but knowing the tension between the 2 and the fact the russians were stopping ALL ships under the threatened bridge, i'd say the chance of the russian stop order was was near 100%. ignoring the risk of such an order was imo either foolish or a deliberate plan. i would stick with a deliberate plan.

what happened then was a common game of chicken. several verbal warnings, followed by shooting in the air were ignored. though the ukis reckoned that the russians scared of international condemnation and sanctions wont DARE to shoot. the ukrainian gamble was called and we know the rest. note, despite having plenty of means, the uki vessels wisely did not shoot back. they knew they'd become fish meal if they did.

now you tell me what vlad was up to vs the uki prez gamble ? and to start with, why was martial law declared this time when only 20 bullets flew and NOT during the hot action earlier when 20,000 ukrainians died :Question:

the answer was provided by 2 american analysts on france 24 - he needed the martial law to suppress the coming election, stay in power and to boost his rating.

a different light than you read in the western msm...isn't it ?

 

[Robert5091]

Questions - Why these 3 Ukrainian boats? Have other military boats been allowed through? When did the Russians decide to park a tanker under the bridge?

the answer was provided by 2 american analysts on france 24 - he needed the martial law to suppress the coming election, stay in power and to boost his rating.

As it stands,(and who knows it might be extended) martial law ends 27 december & the elections are March next year -
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46352367

Martial law will enter into force at 09:00 local time (07:00 GMT) on Wednesday and will end on 27 December.

Monday's vote in parliament came after an emotional address by President Poroshenko, who promised not to restrict basic freedoms. Some MPs expressed fears Mr Poroshenko could suspend a presidential poll on 31 March 2019 - a claim he firmly denied.

But he stressed he needed firm power in case of a full-scale Russian invasion.

Ukraine's national security and defence council had initially recommended a 60-day martial law.

But Mr Poroshenko said he amended the proposal because he did not want martial law to affect the presidential elections.

 

[movingtarget]

Well the bridge has been open for quite a while but it seems that Russia is looking for some leverage which they have little hope of finding at the moment. There is no sign of the sanctions being softened and the UK and Germany will make sure of that. I wonder if there have been other unreported incidents ? Now the Ukrainian sailors are on film admitting that they were provoking Russia while the Ukrainian authorities are saying they were coerced into making such admissions. If Poroshenko loses the next election in favour of Yuliya Tymoshenko who simply won't go away, I hold out little hope for improvement in Ukraine. She was a disaster last time around and her politics swings wildly following whatever is popular at the time. Surely Ukraine has better candidates.........

 

[python]

Re:

.. it seems that Russia is looking for some leverage which they have little hope of finding at the moment. There is no sign of the sanctions being softened and the UK and Germany will make sure of that. I wonder if there have been other unreported incidents ? Now the Ukrainian sailors are on film admitting that they were provoking Russia while the Ukrainian authorities are saying they were coerced into making such admissions.....

to this amateur analyst they have achieved some tangible advantage already. not clear at what cost and if it is a leverage. they de facto took control of the azov sea. by building the bridge across the strait which had a dual purpose:1) linking crimea with the main land and 2) choking the strait for any decent size shipping by limiting passage to a singe span main wide arc, which is easier to patrol and where they placed the barge when the strait blockingf was needed. smart, isn't it - just one 200 meter barge can block a 3 km-wide strait !

it seems, since there are no other states except russia and ukraine in the azov sea, they are trying to send a message: " play nice or we cut you out of the azov sea completely'. this would be a heavy economic blow to the already suffering economy...it is an arrogant power position, but it seems both had given up on talking rationally to each other. the conflict is 4 yo, but it reached the new maritime tension when ukraine seized some russian fishing boats with their crews and started prosecuting them. not dissimilar to what the russians are now doing to the just captured 3 ship crews...may be it is their revenge, since some russian fisherman are still in custody being sued for treason (they are former ukrainians who happened to live in crimea and chose to stay)

i actually think the russians are shooting themselves in a foot by treating the military sailor so harsh. the chaps only followed the orders.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

.. it seems that Russia is looking for some leverage which they have little hope of finding at the moment. There is no sign of the sanctions being softened and the UK and Germany will make sure of that. I wonder if there have been other unreported incidents ? Now the Ukrainian sailors are on film admitting that they were provoking Russia while the Ukrainian authorities are saying they were coerced into making such admissions.....

to this amateur analyst they have achieved some tangible advantage already. not clear at what cost and if it is a leverage. they de facto took control of the azov sea. by building the bridge across the strait which had a dual purpose:1) linking crimea with the main land and 2) choking the strait for any decent size shipping by limiting passage to a singe span main wide arc, which is easier to patrol and where they placed the barge when the strait blockingf was needed. smart, isn't it - just one 200 meter barge can block a 3 km-wide strait !

it seems, since there are no other states except russia and ukraine in the azov sea, they are trying to send a message: " play nice or we cut you out of the azov sea completely'. this would be a heavy economic blow to the already suffering economy...it is an arrogant power position, but it seems both had given up on talking rationally to each other. the conflict is 4 yo, but it reached the new maritime tension when ukraine seized some russian fishing boats with their crews and started prosecuting them. not dissimilar to what the russians are now doing to the just captured 3 ship crews...may be it is their revenge, since some russian fisherman are still in custody being sued for treason (they are former ukrainians who happened to live in crimea and chose to stay)

i actually think the russians are shooting themselves in a foot by treating the military sailor so harsh. the chaps only followed the orders.

Yeah it seems like a Chinese, South China Sea kinda move. Interestingly a British destroyer was cruising recently in the Black Sea in international waters and was buzzed quite aggressively by a group of Russian fighters flying very low over the ship. Even the Chinese don't do that.

 

[Robert5091]

Chinese & Russians like to have a "close look" at the US military
http://abcnewsradioonline.com/world...alls-with-china-russia-in-the-air-and-at.html

https://www.dw.com/en/naval-standof...rainian-president-petro-poroshenko/a-46495757

Speaking to DW in an exclusive interview, US Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations Kurt Volker flatly rejected the claims put forth by Putin: "I'm not sure how this can be a provocation. A sovereign state has a navy, it's moving vessels from one of its ports to another one of its ports through its own waters. The problem here is that Russia has taken Crimea, has claimed to annex it, claims that the waters around Crimea are now Russian waters, and claims — despite a 2003 agreement with Ukraine — that Russia has unilateral control over access to the Sea of Azov and then fired on those vessels. I don't see what Ukraine has done that could be conceived as provocation."

add to that the Ukrainians have supposed to have told the Russians the 3 boats were coming. Lots of "tough talk" from Moscow & Kiev but seemingly for domestic consumption.

 

[Merckx index]

According to a BBC report, British investigators have concluded the Skripal's poisoning by the nerve toxin novichok was the work of (at least) two Russian agents, who brought the substance into the country in a small plastic dispenser of the kind used for perfume. There is video evidence of the presence of the two agents in Salisbury, though not of them in the vicinity of the Skripal's home, where the noichok was applied on their door. They were interviewed in Russia, where they returned hours after the poisoning incident, and didn't deny being in Salisbury at the time, but claimed they were just tourists taking in the world famous sights of that town.

I didn't see the entire report, but a key break in the case occurred three months after the event, when a British woman living near Salisbury died, and her death was found to be the result of poisoning by the same novichok substance. She apparently sprayed the agent on her hands, thinking it was perfume. Her partner, who was also poisoned but survived, told investigators he found the dispenser in a bin used to collect items for charity, where the perps presumably dumped it. He thought it contained an imitation designer brand of perfume, and gave it to the woman.

The report also said that one of the British investigators of the case accidentally contaminated his own home with the toxin. As a result, he and his family had to move out of the home immediately, and the home, and all of their possessions, had to be destroyed. Everything they owned, including their car or cars.

British intelligence seems quite certain that Putin, who has called Skripal a traitor and a scumbag, ordered this attempted murder. Those who still think this could have been a false flag operation have to explain--beyond why Britain would want to do this--why the toxin was discarded in a public place where it was likely to put others at risk, when presumably any government operatives could have disposed of the agent safely.

 

[Unchained]

I was captivated by today's Mexican presidential inauguration..it was awesome period..the new president Lopez Obrador was impressive to say the least. Things happened that have never been seen before in Mexican history..indigenous groups doing dances and other native rituals..giving a cool wooden staff e colorful ribbons and blessings by many conventional and not so conventional..
He did say some things that were completely confusing to me given his timing.
.first was strongly encouraging Mexicans to buy domestic everything.saying that buying from themselves is the answer to most problems. just days after signing the new NAFTA...then he went on a tear about domestic oil..how his new administration will push to make national..state owned oil production a priority.
.he mentioned that he has been treated fairly by Trump..?.
.he mentioned that his goal is to give Mexicans a Canadian style health plan..he mentioned lots of great stuff..nothing about how to pay for it..
I had not seen anything about foreign investors being leary of his left leaning..like he may nationalize things that are currently private..but in his speech he ensured everybody that Mexico will keep it's obligations.
.I don't know if I see a showdown but..British Petroleum..BP and Arco gas station construction crews have been on an absolute tear in Northern Baja getting their logos on as many previously Pemex gas stations...the previous President opened up the Mexican gas market for competition..saying more choices was better for Mexican consumers..and the other companies would make Pemex..the state owned stations..leaner and meaner and better..and from what I have seen that is absolutely the case..w 100's of stations getting decent food and coffee..more abundant and cleaner bathrooms and increasing their minimart offerings to look lots like California,Texas or Arizona junk..
He said stuff about education..
But his most forceful statements were about the poor..how he cares..he will work for them..going as far as to say he will be at his desk everyday by 6am!!!
For people on the outside..@40% of Mexico gets by on less than 2 bucks a day..
I wish him well..the swearing in was fantastic..the way he shook hands..hugged people in the crowd..even getting kissed and he kissed a few people..it really looked sincere..

 

[Robert5091]

Lock them up! Lock them up!
https://www.axios.com/israeli-polic...760-914dedf0-40bd-4199-ae8c-8d5d97cd6063.html

The Israeli police recommended that the country's attorney general should indict Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife Sara Netanyahu for alleged bribery on Sunday due to their relationship with Israel's leading telecommunication tycoon — widely known as "Case 4000."

Why it matters: This is a very big deal. "Case 4000" is the third time in the last year that the police recommended Netanyahu should be indicted for bribery. The previous recommendations dealt with Netanyahu allegedly taking "gifts" worth $200,000 from businessmen in return for allegedly promoting their interests ("Case 1000") and an alleged bribe deal between Netanyahu and Arnon Mozes, the publisher of Israel's largest newspaper and an archenemy of Sheldon Adelson ("Case 2000"). But the allegations in "Case 4000" are the gravest of all the corruption investigations against Netanyahu.

The backdrop: "Case 4000" has been investigated by the Israeli police's elite unit "Lahav 433," the Israeli equivalent of the FBI, and the Israeli Securities Authority since February 2018.

The police statement stressed that Netanyahu and Elovitz had a "relationship based on bribes" and that Netanyahu and his associates brazenly meddled — sometimes on a daily basis — in the coverage of Walla website. According to the police Netanyahu and his wife asked to publish positive stories about them and to prevent the publishing of negative stories. According to the police Netanyahu and his associates even tried to influence appointments of news editors and reporters in order to promote the Netanyahu family interests.

more at https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5418366,00.html

 

[Robert5091]

https://www.dn.se/nyheter/varlden/h...en-hotas-samtidigt-av-utvisning-fran-sverige/
Rumour has it that the Yemini peace talks will start on Wednesday in Stockholm. For journalist Hind Aleryani who is an adviser to the UN, she's under threat of being sent to the Czech Republic from Sweden for a correct asylum-seeking procedure. Her mother and sister already live in the "socialist hellhole".

Edit - a good who's who and what's what in Yemen at https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/yemen-peace-talks-181202101535422.html

 

[Robert5091]

https://www.dn.se/nyheter/varlden/c...igen-blir-av/?forceScript=1&variantType=large

Margot Wallström Sweden's Foreign Minister, tweets, The Houthi delegation has arrived to Sweden together with Special Envoys from UN, Sweden and Kuwait for planned consultations on Yemen. Expect Yemeni Government delegation shortly. Hopefully consultations will take place soon, as an urgent step towards ending the conflict.

also, The Swedish Government is proud to provide logistical support to the UN led consultations.

Hey, wait a minute! I'm paying for this?

 

[Robert5091]

That's Rimbo, not Rambo.
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/Ne...ce-talks-to-start-on-Thursday-in-Sweden-.html

Peace talks between Yemeni government representatives and the Houthi militias’ delegation will begin on Thursday in Sweden, the UN announced.

"The (UN special envoy) would like to announce the restart of the intra-Yemeni political process in Sweden on 6 December 2018," UN envoy Martin Griffiths’ office tweeted.

A 12-member government delegation, led by Yemeni Foreign Minister Khaled al-Yamani, arrived in Stockholm Wednesday evening, one day after the militias’ delegation flew in from Sanaa -- accompanied by the UN envoy.

The talks mark the first meeting between Yemen’s Saudi-backed government and Houthi militias, linked to Iran, since 2016, when 106 days of negotiations yielded no breakthrough.

 

[Unchained]

I am going to predict the future..
Trump and Putin are going to escalate the treaty tussle and their desire to go back in time will be realized..most of western Europe will be horrified about a new arms race in which they are a few miles from nuclear weapons pointed at them..the silver lining for Trump will be in the true pay to play style..I predict Poland will agree to be Trump's home away from home for his new nuke missiles ..what the U.S. will pay in rent to the Poles..?

 

[python]

unchained, you got somethings spot on, except the cause/consequence thing....it's not putin but your president (i know you cringe when i mention this), who is bringing the europeans to the brink of a nuclear conflict....

vlad was just given an ultimatum of 60 days or else. a plain fact. you say are are a veteran. should know when one uses the language of ultimatums in reference to a great nuclear power, they either expect a surrender or they know the ultimatum was dead on arrival and was meant to exit the treaty...

and to begin with, if you followed the events closer, russia is really not the subject of this tussle.

china is. iran is...anyone, any nation that is currently free to develop the class of nuclear missiles b/c they were NOT the parties to a bilateral ussr (russia)-us deal.

and the us logic to exit the treaty where they are bound while some of their major rivals are not is clearly sound. again, russia is a convenient beating boy, a decoy in this case, b/c folks like you in the west get instantly understanding when the evil vlad is vilified.

it is been long my opinion, that the europeans ought to get serious about their own defense and the fact they will be under a nuclear attack threat for as long as they are willing to be the american nuclear hostage.

things are changing but very slowly.

 

[Unchained]

Python. .you missed me..Trump is the political equivalent of Ebola. .Putin. .while being a punk.is more pragmatic. .Trump didn't make the same mistake as Obama. .drawing lines that when crossed were supposed to have serious consequences. .I am not saying Trump's moral compass is broken. .I am saying he never had one..lots of the world is coming to grips w a choice between Putin and Trump. .Vlad maybe the better choice. .
The idea that Trump could tweet or say that he will restart the nuclear arms race od someone makes him angry enough is completely fvckin' nuts..
We are seeing many of the small fires he has started here and worldwide pick up strength. .he was against Paris accord. .ooops. .he aided w Russians and Saudis w poison and bonesaws in their carry on bags..at home he found that bad mouthing the Affordable Care Act only works when you keep working the race angle..without blackface connection people are voting to keep and expand it..in Idaho no less! And the little fire he started w China may burn us all..arresting Chinese business people and getting caught in Twitter lies has the stock market jittery ..and messing w the US's economic diamonds. .California,Arizona and Texas w all his bipolar NAFTA talk the guy will step on a none somewhere. .and if Trump was uneasy before watching HOP heavies like Graham slam him has to make his headpiece shift as he sweats like a white in church. .

 

[python]

unchained, i am going to be brief, what you - and most americans keep missing - is that trump, understandably to carry a lot of blame, if not a factor, would barely negate the american imperialist, hegemonic policies.

vlad or merkel or the norkor dictator will talk exactly in the same self protectionist manner when you threaten their existence.

of the 3 only vlad can support his talk with an action that may wipe out your motorcycling passion. or my relatively comfortable living here. trump has not started nor invented the american arrogance. he advanced it to new levels.

 

[Robert5091]

https://nypost.com/2018/12/06/ecuadors-president-says-julian-assange-should-leave-embassy-soon/

Ecuadorian President Lenin Moreno said Thursday that WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange can leave his country’s London embassy any time he wants — and the sooner the better.

“I do not like the presence of Mr. Assange in the Ecuadorian embassy, but we have been respectful of his human rights and with that respect in mind, we think that six years is too long for someone to remain nearly incarcerated in an embassy,” Moreno said.

After what happened to the Huawei chief financial officer in Canada, Assange will be even more reluctant to leave the Embassy.

 

[Unchained]

Python that is not anything you wrote that I disagree with..you seem to have omitted that Putin..Merkel or any other leader didn't call themselves out..Vlad didn't tweet anything about his country's non compliance..he didn't tweet that he wants to escalate tensions..Vlad or Angela didn't say that they wanted a revolution in Iran..a regime change..neither of them scrapped deals..because they felt like it..Saudis or North Korea..Trump in a hurry to discount scientists and police professionals..instead saying he prefers to determine nuclear threats..treatie compliance using...his gut..
There was a long period after the Soviet state fell apart and reconstituted itself were nuclear weapons and other armaments were unguarded..up for sale or had a flimsy chain link fence guarding things that could kill thousands..watching India fight over Kashmir I am not confident focusing on Vladimir Putin as the primary threat to the US..
The threats to western Europe are undefined..there has been a lull in attacks in Belgium.Germany and France..but Italy and Spain are due..
When I described Trump as bipolar it wasn't q criticism it was just what I see. Trump if front of UN allies..bichin' and moaning about getting there promised military spending goals..not met but increased..Trump stumping in the U.S. Saying that the @700 billion spending was a fantastic presidential accomplishment and a number that would give us the best military in history..now his opinion is the 700+ billion in spending is "crazy" Trump tweets..so is he saying that he is crazy? Is he demanding that UN participation also be crazy?
Who really knows how much Putin spent on plundering politics in America..but no matter how many rubbles he spent the his return on investment is beyond his wildest dreams..and Trump is the major component in his arsenal..
Putin will not attack me..our my two wheeled passion..why would he when Trump is set on wrecking America from the inside out..
If I should be worried about who has a finger on the launch button...Trump is the world's biggest worry..by far..that includes ISIS..or Taliban having the ability to use nukes..for Trump to trash talk about Iran w his behavior..Iran looks stable..

 

[Robert5091]

I think Python is refering to the Pax Americana that exists especially in Europe.
I lived once not far from Greenham Common base when the protests started so I understand the worries.

 

[Robert5091]

Anyone wanna bet some "well known" politicans/business interests are involved in the "Yellow Vests" protests?
This is after all where Climate Change and big business clash.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...vests-are-plotting-online?srnd=premium-europe