Year of Next First-Time TdF Winner?

[RedheadDane]

Sort of a "follow-up" poll to @Ilmaestro99 's about who will be the next (new) TdF winner, but this time asking when it will happen.
Will someone actually manage to beat Pogacar - and Vingegaard?
Or will the kids have to politely wait until those two have retired?

 

[Ulle97]

If Pogacar turns up for the next two years without crashing out, he will win in 2026 ad 2027.
I think he may start to drop off from his insane peak and rising stars will be in with a real chance in 2028. It may be the case that we witness a small decline this year but he will still be too much for the field.

I don't see Vingegaard winning another Tour unless Pogacar is absent.

 

[canina82]

The ORR is one or two weeks after the Tour?

 

[RedheadDane]

The ORR is one or two weeks after the Tour?

In 2028 or 2032?

 

[canina82]

In 2028 or 2032?

2028

 

[Devil's Elbow]

2029, in symbolic fashion after Pogacar has matched Armstrong's defunct record.

 

[ingsve]

The ORR is one or two weeks after the Tour?

One week. TDF ends on July 16th and Olympic road race is on July 23rd.

There is a decent chance that anyone serious about the ORR might skip the Tour that year. Especially if Pogacar wins the next 2 Tours I think he could very easily skip the 2028 Tour. I don't think he will be satisfied with only a bronze from the Olympics in his career.

 

[Red Rick]

Pretty sure it was the same way in Tokyo 2021