Itzulia Basque Country 2024, April 1-6

[Rackham]

Roglič has this in the bag.

I agree.

If Roglic doesn't win this he might as well retire.

Dude...

Nah, Itzulia is a great route for Primoz by definition actually. Primoz in top form would probably be able to win this even against Skeletor (by bonus seconds perhaps). I think stage 6 will be absolute carnage. Gaps till this stage will be small and JV will want to absolutely destroy stage 6. Vingo going thermonuclear on Krabelin is on the cards and I don't think anybody will be able to follow.

I think Rog will follow. Maybe I'm an optimist but I think his weaknesses on this sort of route is mostly positioning & weather related. If he has the legs, I don't see Krabelin as a problem. It's not like there's a 17km HC climb followed by another & another over a 200km+ stage.

On such a profile, I'd have to say Vingegaard would massacre everyone. But here? Even on stage 6, I don't see it.

Of course it's all a moot point if Rog shows up with his Paris-Nice stage 8 form, i.e. at which point it's vamos a la playa, grab a couple of cervezas & wait for the social media sh*tstorm to blow over.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I agree.



Dude...



I think Rog will follow. Maybe I'm an optimist but I think his weaknesses on this sort of route is mostly positioning & weather related. If he has the legs, I don't see Krabelin as a problem. It's not like there's a 17km HC climb followed by another & another over a 200km+ stage.

On such a profile, I'd have to say Vingegaard would massacre everyone. But here? Even on stage 6, I don't see it.

Of course it's all a moot point if Rog shows up with his Paris-Nice stage 8 form, i.e. at which point it's vamos a la playa, grab a couple of cervezas & wait for the social media sh*tstorm to blow over.

Primoz would need to be in a very good form, a significant progress is needed, even compared to pre stage 8 PN level. 5 km at almost 10% is Skeletor's territory actually. He's shown some amazing VAM on 10-15 min climbs already. Those climbs aren't that long but they are long enough to be mostly in aerobic zone plus they are repeated one after another.

 

[red_flanders]

Leintz Gatzaga is the lithmus test for Evenepoel and Roglic vs Vingegaard IMO.

A 3k climb? I haven't followed this race terribly closely in the past, can you elaborate? Seems on paper too short to matter that much. I assume differences can be made but seems like it would be 15-20 seconds at best. Curious about your thoughts.

 

[Red Rick]

A 3k climb? I haven't followed this race terribly closely in the past, can you elaborate? Seems on paper too short to matter that much. I assume differences can be made but seems like it would be 15-20 seconds at best. Curious about your thoughts.

It's more that if they get dropped there they have no shot anyway. Also wouldn't bode terribly well for the Tour.

 

[Rackham]

Primoz would need to be in a very good form, a significant progress is needed, even compared to pre stage 8 PN level. 5 km at almost 10% is Skeletor's territory actually. He's shown some amazing VAM on 10-15 min climbs already. Those climbs aren't that long but they are long enough to be mostly in aerobic zone plus they are repeated one after another.

Primož with his best 2023 form follows Vinge on Krabelin. I'd bet on that. But the question is of course whether he has the form.

I'll venture he'll be better than in Paris-Nice. The rest... is up to where he stands versus the others. If he isn't better than Paris-Nice, then there's probably cause for some concern, i.e. after Itzulia he does Liège, then it's an altitude camp, then Dauphiné, then Red Bull give them their new kit (apparently) & it'll already be time for the July circus around France.

Aka the Tour isn't that far away.

 

[Netserk]

A 3k climb? I haven't followed this race terribly closely in the past, can you elaborate? Seems on paper too short to matter that much. I assume differences can be made but seems like it would be 15-20 seconds at best. Curious about your thoughts.

10" at the top can be twice that at the finish. Enough to put a rider in the lead and in position to merely follow the others in the last stage.

 

[Red Rick]

10" at the top can be twice that at the finish. Enough to put a rider in the lead and in position to merely follow the others in the last stage.

I think if Evenepoel is 10s back on the top he loses 0 seconds by the end.

 

[red_flanders]

10" at the top can be twice that at the finish. Enough to put a rider in the lead and in position to merely follow the others in the last stage.

Yeah, it's a great springboard for an attack from a good sized group. I'd imagine given the profile that it's much more likely a group of 30 hits the bottom of that climb, and you could see a group of 3-5 motoring away. Hard for me to see a solo rider getting away on that climb, but like I said, I'm not super familiar with the details of this race.

It's more that if they get dropped there they have no shot anyway. Also wouldn't bode terribly well for the Tour.

Ah. Well for sure. But I'd be surprised to see them dropped on such a short climb. Hope not anyway.

 

[Rou]

I don't agree, because Vingegaard will not face a weak field like Pogacar faced in Catalunya.

He will face Roglic and Remco.

When Vingegaard faced "farmers", he also won 3 stages in 3 days.

Why do you hate Pogacar, Froomie? I am a Pog fan but I also respect Jonas and I love his attacking style and the way he crushes riders. So why do you hate Pogacar so much?

 

[Netserk]

The climb is ~2.8 km at 9.3 %. That's a ~7'30" effort. Similar to Malhão, easier than Mende. Harder than Domancy.

Gaps are certainly not assured, but definitely possible.

 

[Escarabajo]

If Roglic doesn't win this he might as well retire.

??? There is a big probability that He won't win and even bigger that He won't retire!

 

[Ulle97]

I think people are underrating stage 4 a bit, could definitely see gaps between the big guns there.

It's still a *** route, though.

Totally agree, that last climb averages almost 9% and well over it in places.

Vingegaard will definitely go for a big attack here.

 

[CHGJ2000]

I agree.



Dude...



I think Rog will follow. Maybe I'm an optimist but I think his weaknesses on this sort of route is mostly positioning & weather related. If he has the legs, I don't see Krabelin as a problem. It's not like there's a 17km HC climb followed by another & another over a 200km+ stage.

On such a profile, I'd have to say Vingegaard would massacre everyone. But here? Even on stage 6, I don't see it.

Of course it's all a moot point if Rog shows up with his Paris-Nice stage 8 form, i.e. at which point it's vamos a la playa, grab a couple of cervezas & wait for the social media sh*tstorm to blow over.

Personally think there's only one rider in the world that can follow an in form Vingegaard here and he's on an altitude camp preparing for the Giro. Prepare for annihilation.

 

[Froome]

Why do you hate Pogacar, Froomie? I am a Pog fan but I also respect Jonas and I love his attacking style and the way he crushes riders. So why do you hate Pogacar so much?

It was unnecessary so many accounts mou.

 

[Rou]

If Remco brings his top San Sebastian shape he is undroppable even on stage 6. However he probably won't be at that level.

 

[Rou]

It was unnecessary so many accounts mou.

I'm not mou.

 

[CHGJ2000]

ngl I find the attacking style comments quite funny when we're talking about riders that are miles better than the competition. When they're not facing each other, it's not like Pog or Vingegaard are taking risks attacking, they stamp on the pedals a bit and that's race over thanks for coming.

 

[Escarabajo]

Is there a back up plan to keep the forum running if Vingegaard beats Remco in the ITT?

 

[Froome]

Is there a back up plan to keep the forum running if Vingegaard beats Remco in the ITT?

The ITT is short, with some climbs, and technical with a lot of corners, so vingegaard will not lose much time for Remco.

 

[Rob5091]

At the moment, weather for next week is for a shower or two on Monday, Wednesday and Friday. A shower in the middle of the ITT will certainly cause problems. A strong easterly wind also on Monday.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Travesty of a route. Urkaregi west is a nothingburger and looks like the traditional side of Ixua before it. That used to be the warmup for Arrate on the old 2010-15 kind of stage. Last time Urkaregi was used as a final climb from that side, Simon Gerrans won a sprint. Using it even from the other side as a final climb you ended up with stage winners like Ben Swift.

At least if the Krabelin-Trabakua circuit was the last one they could use those uncategorised climbs to really beef up the finish. Or do Krabelin-Ixua-Urkaregi, then Ixua-Trabakua and those repechos.

 

[Netserk]

Last time Urkaregi was used as a final climb from that side, Simon Gerrans won a sprint.

No, that was last year when Vingegaard went solo.

When the route was announced, I likewise suggested the loops to be taken in the other order:

So don't get me wrong, I very much like the final stage as it is, but I do think there's still room for improvement.

Eibar > Eibar

140.0 km, +3801 m. Bike ride in Elgóibar, País Vasco/Euskadi

ridewithgps.com

 

[red_flanders]

Travesty of a route. Urkaregi west is a nothingburger and looks like the traditional side of Ixua before it. That used to be the warmup for Arrate on the old 2010-15 kind of stage. Last time Urkaregi was used as a final climb from that side, Simon Gerrans won a sprint. Using it even from the other side as a final climb you ended up with stage winners like Ben Swift.

At least if the Krabelin-Trabakua circuit was the last one they could use those uncategorised climbs to really beef up the finish. Or do Krabelin-Ixua-Urkaregi, then Ixua-Trabakua and those repechos.

When you say travesty, is it because it's not hard enough? Asking because not hard enough might make for a much more interesting race, given Vingo's dominance so far this year.

 

[tobydawq]

You have Vingegaard, Roglic and Evenepoel and the route is, to paraphrase one of the chess players of all time: "So bad, soooo bad. So bad chat. That's so bad."

Yes, awful that we can't just say beforehand that Vingegaard will win by three minutes.

 

[Elos Anjos]

As a Rog fan, I'm not sure I even like this route myself.

It's not Leintz Gatzaga for example that bothers me (if he has good legs, it's no problem), it's the fight for position going into these muritos which could be a problem.

Knocks on wood three times.