105th Ronde van Vlaanderen: April 4th, 2021

[Red Rick]

Maybe but Asgreen followed basically all of Van der Poels mini moves much better than van Aert did.

Generally yeah. Van Aert was not on his best day, but they spent a lot of extra energy catching Alaphilippe, + Asgreen was nowhere on the Koppenberg.

 

[Akuryo]

Sure, but there is still a big gap between thinking you've got a shot, and being so confident that you will win against likely the most punchy finisher in small sprints in the world, that you do more work than needed, and actively reducing your own chances. It's good he won, he was the strongest, he won deservedly, but needlessly reduced his own chances. I don't see how you can debate that.

He rode next to them and could gauge their level probably better than you from your armchair. Statistically speaking you might be right but in this particular situation he felt a sprint was his best option and that was true. The result proves him right. Analytics can only get you so far but sometimes gut feeling and knowledge of your AND your opponents form will lead to actions that aren't according to your statistics and chances. The winner will always look smart and the loser dumb.

I think its ridiculous you call him 'not a smart rider' when he clearly proved your theory wrong. Today he did not have to go long cause he knew he had what it took to win a sprint. 9/10 times you are probably not winning that scenario but TODAY he felt his from was good enough to do so. Calling someone confident in their abilities not smart just because it defies statistics and odds is the actual stupid thing to do.

 

[tomorrow]

Time to create MvdP is new Sagan thread

 

[johnymax]

What's crazy to me is how MVP and WVA still only have 1 monument each.

I don't know. Sagan has only 2 monuments, it seems even crazier to me. But they all have time to change that, including Sagan.

 

[Savant12]

Van der Poel had also worked a good deal more by that point. If Asgreen didn't have the luxury of Alaphillippe and Seneschal in the group behind it was going to be a different story.

It's just VDP's nature to put in more work but in a lot of [most?] cases it works out for him. Unfortunately, for him, Asgreen was in better form and had the best legs in the end.

 

[Red Rick]

Asgreen saved the race for DQ, Ala did his best to make them loose the race, but Asgreen was just too strong.

Alaphilippes first move was brilliant.

 

[42x16ss]

Asgreen saved the race for DQ, Ala did his best to make them loose the race, but Asgreen was just too strong.

Just by hanging onto the chase group Alaphillippe helped Asgreen. Forcing Wout and Van der Poel to do the work was certainly a factor, I'm not convinced Asgreen wins that sprint if he did equal work.

 

[Leinster]

BS response. I was talking about the moment when van Aert was chasing solo, and van der Poel would have gone 100% just to drop van Aert permanently. I was not talking about when van Aert was back in the group.

And no, these guys are not all master tacticians, and no, there was no way he could predict he was going to beat van der Poel in a straight up sprint. Claiming that, is in fact clutching at straws.


How so? Because he won the sprint? Doesn't change the fact that he made a tactical mistake.

Asgreen was man-marking vdPoel all day. Nobody knows better than he what his best chance of winning a 2-up sprint was. It probaboy made more sense to work with Matthieu for the guaranteed 2nd than to wait for the bigger group and risk finishing 5th or worse.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Asgreen amazing.

I don't think MvdP did anything wrong. Just encountered someone who had more in the tank than he did.
Now we know Asgreen is not to be discounted in a sprint after 260km...

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

They did, I mentioned that on a couple of occasions during the race. They're so strong that they tend to do way too much. Mathieu definitely paid the price for that in the final sprint. Will they ever learn?

Tbh I think Vd Poel was very confident of his sprint and didn't think at all he could lose to Asgreen. Lesson learned, after 260km the strongest wins, not the fastest.

Asgreen already showed in E3. He was the strongest guy of the last 2 weeks.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I'm breathing fine, it's you who seems to get your panties in a twist every time someone mentions MVDP. Asgreen won chap, you can breathe easy now.

I cheer for the underdog in pretty much every sporting event. One of the reasons why I watch road racing and not say cyclocross is that the strongest doesn’t reliably win. It doesn’t mean I’ve some deep loathing of the obvious favourite. Now run along and try not to take other people’s trivial preferences so personally

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

Has anybody expected Asgreen to wait for the sprint?

He did win a couple of man-to-man sprints in 2019. Not against the same calibre of rider but he and the DS must have thought he stood a chance.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He rode next to them and could gauge their level probably better than you from your armchair. Statistically speaking you might be right but in this particular situation he felt a sprint was his best option and that was true. The result proves him right. Analytics can only get you so far but sometimes gut feeling and knowledge of your AND your opponents form will lead to actions that aren't according to your statistics and chances. The winner will always look smart and the loser dumb.

I think its ridiculous you call him 'not a smart rider' when he clearly proved your theory wrong. Today he did not have to go long cause he knew he had what it took to win a sprint. 9/10 times you are probably not winning that scenario but TODAY he felt his from was good enough to do so. Calling someone confident in their abilities not smart just because it defies statistics and odds is the actual stupid thing to do.

How on earth did he prove me wrong? By winning? That is completely besides the point. And if it's simply a matter of "gauging" your rival, then why did Mathieu ride? Why does anyone who doesn't end up winning? What a naïve thought.

 

[roundabout]

Except he quite literally predicted it, held out for the sprint, and won. your whole narrative is based on your own belief of the riders' respective strengths, which is not what Asgreen thought about himself - and to everyone's shock, Asgreen did know more about himself than people on here did.

Asgreen also made the calculation that he felt more comfortable in a two up race than in a three, and that makes sense. A three is more difficult to control, and Asgreen felt/knew he wanted to have as much control over the situation as possible. Plus, Van der Poel could tell how weak Van Aert was, so would've followed every move Asgreen without giving too much regard to the fact he was leading out the (spent) Van Aert.

Your whole issue is that you're not taking into account just how good Asgreen was today. You're treating him as clearly worse than VdP, and someone whose best chance of a win would come by creating chaos and then riding away. But he proved that isn't the case.

Hindsight bias?

 

[Valv.Piti]

I don't know. Sagan has only 2 monuments, it seems even crazier to me. But they all have time to change that, including Sagan.

Does he though? Only monument I can see him winning is MSR and that is with some very good luck...

Grande Kasper, what a ride! I think VDP was marginally stronger today, but Asgreen had more in the end.

 

[Breezy1985]

Time to create MvdP is new Sagan thread

Clearly being coached by the original Sagan. Grandpa Ray

 

[Valv.Piti]

How on earth did he prove me wrong? By winning? That is completely besides the point. And if it's simply a matter of "gauging" your rival, then why did Mathieu ride? Why does anyone who doesn't end up winning? What a naïve thought.

Yes, exactly by winning. Thats what matters. What else?

I think, in fact, youre the dumbass. Get over yourself.

 

[42x16ss]

It's just VDP's nature to put in more work but in a lot of [most?] cases it works out for him. Unfortunately, for him, Asgreen was in better form and had the best legs in the end.

I'd take a one out of two chance over a one in eight any day of the week. At that point the chase still had GvA, Laporte, Seneschal, Wout - not a group I'd want to sprint against.

It was a well earned win by Asgreen, but not entirely convinced he was strongest on the day, but freshest for the sprint.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Asgreen was man-marking vdPoel all day. Nobody knows better than he what his best chance of winning a 2-up sprint was. It probaboy made more sense to work with Matthieu for the guaranteed 2nd than to wait for the bigger group and risk finishing 5th or worse.

Again, i was talking about the moment van Aert was still chasing solo, and van der Poel would have committed 100% regardless of Asgreen pulling. He could have played them out against each other.

 

[memyselfandI]

I do think Van Aert and VdP burnt too many matches too early in the race.

This. Well maybe Van Aert not out of his own will, but VdP was a hammer and WVA was a nail for obvious reasons. VdP has very high anaerobics and maximal output, Asgreen has a bit higher threshold level, I guess and didn't went too deep, just following what's cooking around.

But as they drove those last k's lightning fast, round minute per k at the best after long hard day, it did not surprise. Asgreen had not a single drop of fear entering final sprint, such a cool head. Hats of for that.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Woman's race a bit dull at the moment.

 

[Brullnux]

Hindsight bias?

I was one of the few who thought Asgreen was doing the right thing at the time too. I didn't expect him to wait until the last 300m, mind, I thought he'd have gone a bjt earlier, but I did think his best chance would come from a 1v1 against van der poel rather than trying to create chaos and waiting for the group behind him to join or van Aert to join. He was clearly riding really well, and looked a bit better than VdP post Paterberg, and when you're that strong it is easier to win when you reduce the variables around you and take control (which he did).

I also think Asgreen did not do as much work as VdP for the flat section, and then he did sit on his wheel for a good kilometre and a bit at the end. And like I said, Asgreen clearly trusted his sprint in the right conditions and he was right to do so.

 

[Panda Claws]

Does he though? Only monument I can see him winning is MSR and that is with some very good luck...

Grande Kasper, what a ride! I think VDP was marginally stronger today, but Asgreen had more in the end.

Yeah I think he has better odds to grab a 4th World Championship somewhere actually. Those kinds of races it can actually be an advantage to have zero teammates because you can hide so much and the WC is often very closed anyway because Belgium, Italy or Spain try to control everything.

Edit: Also why does the Belgian commentator think Stuyven is faster than Van Avermaet? In my mental 'sprint power rankings' GVA is easily ahead lol but perhaps those are wrong.

 

[Red Rick]

Sagan in impossible to tell after having COVID during an essential part of the pre season.

 

[sir fly]

Woman's race a bit dull at the moment.

Patience.
Not easy to dare against SD Worx