105th Ronde van Vlaanderen: April 4th, 2021

[Libertine Seguros]

Poor Audrey, that gap just got annihilated when Anna VDB got on the front, and obviously now she has Paladin in the gap too.

 

[tobydawq]

Sagan beating Kristoff in a sprint for minor positions (15th). That's the biggest win you can get in De Ronde.

 

[Valv.Piti]

It was terrible clearly he should've been the #1 favorite.

I dont think 2nd favorite is ridiculous considering his E-3 performance, his team and his results in Flanders so far

 

[Leinster]

Again, i was talking about the moment van Aert was still chasing solo, and van der Poel would have committed 100% regardless of Asgreen pulling. He could have played them out against each other.

But again, Asgreen was close to both riders all day. He was aware of all the facts you are, plus the additional fact that he’s stronger in a sprint at the end of a 6 hour, 260km race than you thought he was. He made the calculation that it was better to work with MvdP to make sure the chasers weren’t an issue, than to play cat and mouse and finish 5th in a 2-horse race (see; Criquielion 1987, and Bauer 2014, for 2 examples).

I’m sure Asgreen didn’t know that he WOULD beat vdP in any normal sprint, but I’m equally sure (in my 20/20 hindsight) that he knew better than any of us watching that he COULD beat him in the final sprint TODAY, and that the chance of him not winning the sprint was one worth taking.


Quickstep were in exactly the same situation in 2015; strong rouleur Terpstra clear with a sprinter on hot form. They made the same calculation then; work enough to keep the chase at bay, and take the chance in the 2-up. It didn’t work out then, it did today.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

CILLE ATTACK!

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I mean he can decide not to take turns with van der Poel, ok they will slow down and everything comes together and maybe Senechal can win or more likely someone like Stuyven sneaks away. So his team's chances (but it's also a sport for individuals) would probably even be worse if he had refused.

This would not have been the scenario. Van der Poel would have kept riding to distance van Aert. Van Aert would have kept riding to bridge, especially knowing only van der Poel was riding in front. Asgreen would have been the laughing third. Good on him that he won, but assuming to beat van der Poel in a sprint was always a gamble.

 

[Valv.Piti]

This would not have been the scenario. Van der Poel would have kept riding to distance van Aert. Van Aert would have kept riding to bridge, especially knowing only van der Poel was riding in front. Asgreen would have been the laughing third. Good on him that he won, but assuming to beat van der Poel in a sprint was always a gamble.

Everything is a gamble. He made the correct choice - obviously.

 

[jaylew]

ACR should wait for Paladin, although I guess she's making it herself

 

[MartinGT]

The Schar DSQ is just ridiculous. If he had thrown his bottle into field and ditch, then fair do. But he threw it towards people watching who picks it up. Come on, lets have some common sense.

 

[Spine Concept]

Everything is a gamble. He made the correct choice - obviously.

I agree, but you can also assess your odds while gambling and base a decision on that. He made the choice to gamble against the odds stacked up against him, so de facto, it wasn't a "smart" choice, so I can understand Logic's contention here. It was more a brave choice than a smart one, vindicated only because it paid off and he won. Kudos to him for being brave.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Everything is a gamble. He made the correct choice - obviously.

I'm pretty sure sprinting against an even more fatigued van der Poel would have been less of a gamble. But clearly you think the fresher your rival, the worse he will sprint.

 

[Salvarani]

Sagan beating Kristoff in a sprint for minor positions (15th). That's the biggest win you can get in De Ronde.

PR being moved might have been really good for him. Sagan usually is very good late in the year and he will hopefully have more miles in his legs by then.

15th is still decent considering the preparation. He did what he could today, but it was a long shot he would fight for the win.

His form should improve with more races.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

ACR should wait for Paladin, although I guess she's making it herself

She lost 20" on the last climb, so I think she's more interested in making SD Worx chase and isolate van der Breggen and give Longo Borghini, van Dijk and Deignan a free ride in that group at this stage. Definitely think she expects she's not making it solo at this point.

 

[jaylew]

Paladin isn't making it across

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I agree, but you can also assess your odds while gambling and base a decision on that. He made the choice to gamble against the odds stacked up against him, so de facto, it wasn't a "smart" choice, so I can understand Logic's contention here. It was more a brave choice than a smart one, vindicated only because it paid off and he won. Kudos to him for being brave.

Thank you. This is exactly why i mean.

 

[jaylew]

She lost 20" on the last climb, so I think she's more interested in making SD Worx chase and isolate van der Breggen and give Longo Borghini, van Dijk and Deignan a free ride in that group at this stage. Definitely think she expects she's not making it solo at this point.

SD Worx isn't even doing the chasing unfortunately. Bike Exchange doing their work.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Has anybody expected Asgreen to wait for the sprint?

Well I think yes, especially after Asgreen looking extremely strong the entire day, even quickly gaining the 40-50s back to the favourite group after he was trapped in the big crash and even past the group to get in top 5 position into first passage of Oude Kwaremont. And especially driving wheel to wheel in larger gear wheel to wheel with MvdP last time up Paterberg. By that time I thought Asgreen had a real chance in a sprint and that MvdP would get cramps.

Besides, Brian Holm called it a couple of times or three before the sprint, he seemed convinced.

Moreover, Brian Holm told on the last DQS pre race meeting on Teams, that Kasper Asgreen told the group "I'm stronger in a sprint after 260k than you think"

 

[Libertine Seguros]

SD Worx isn't even doing the chasing unfortunately, Bike Exchange doing their work.

True, but then Grace Brown has been on great form so likely believes in herself here. And depending on the groups that they end up with, she can certainly trust her sprint against a fair few of those left.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Kopecky - problem at the base of Kwaremont for the biggest home hope? That's awful luck.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Selection being made, and only one Trek (ELB), that surprises me. I know Deignan's not had a great year thus far but I thought one of her and Ellen would be able to make it since there's still best part of a dozen riders left. Brown looking super strong in the wheel of VDB too.

Vos dropped and Niewiadoma dropped! That's surprising. Cavalli sill there for Cille, that's impressive stuff.

Edit: Cille suffering actually, looks like Marta is stronger.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I agree, but you can also assess your odds while gambling and base a decision on that. He made the choice to gamble against the odds stacked up against him, so de facto, it wasn't a "smart" choice, so I can understand Logic's contention here. It was more a brave choice than a smart one, vindicated only because it paid off and he won. Kudos to him for being brave.

You can say that, but riding like Simon Gerrans isnt his nature, actually quite the opposite. Thats obvious to everyone who have seen the guy race. But secondly, riding like this, worst case is 2nd and best case is 1st. Taking the wheel sucking all-or-nothing approach and you can end up umpteenth instead of first off all securing the 2nd. Maybe 4 years down the road in the exact same situation with one more win under his belt (and a sense that he stands absolutely no chance in the sprint), he will do that. That will be the correct thing to do, but surely he thought he would stand a chance playing it this way and if everything went to ***, well, you still get 2nd and you get beat by a phenomenon and beat another.

Not bad.

 

[Bonimenier]

Kopecki very unlucky this season. Also had a mechanical in Strade.

 

[jaylew]

Kopecky - problem at the base of Kwaremont for the biggest home hope? That's awful luck.

She's done, I think.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Ronde delivers as always. Asgreen even stronger than I expected. I thought he might win in a tactical race but he was one of two strongest guys there. A bit surprised that WVA weakened and MVP lost energy at the end of sprint. I think that TA sucked out of two Vans a bit more than they thought it would.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Cille holding on but she's really had to grit the teeth for that. She'll be dropped on Paterberg I think. Demi to the front. And here goes Brown!