106th Ronde van Vlaanderen: April 3rd, 2022

[Mayomaniac]

If Wout isn't racing it could be a pretty open race with JV and Quickstep both not willing to control the race and Alpecin having to do most of the work/everyone looking at MVdP. Someone who is flying a bit under the radar could get away.

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

If Wout isn't racing it could be a pretty open race with JV and Quickstep both not willing to control the race and Alpecin having to do most of the work/everyone looking at MVdP. Someone who is flying a bit under the radar could get away.

Pedersen could get away with this scenario,as I don’t think the main teams will have Trek controlling the race and he’s not the main threats after those teams.

 

[search]

I think he is too big a name. It sounds more like a move van Baarle usually goes for. Narvaez could be a contender as well, if he has recovered from his crash.

Interesting that Küng (as far as I could see) didn't get a single mention in this thread, btw. Together with Asgreen, I see him as one of the very few riders potentially able to keep up with MvdP (or even van Aert, if back in shape).

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

I think he is too big a name. It sounds more like a move van Baarle usually goes for. Narvaez could be a contender as well, if he has recovered from his crash.

Interesting that Küng (as far as I could see) didn't get a single mention in this thread, btw. Together with Asgreen, I see him as one of the very few riders potentially able to keep up with MvdP (or even van Aert, if back in shape).

Yes,Kung can follow, but out of the top contenders he is the least likely to win in a sprint in case the race is together at the end.

 

[SafeBet]

I think he is too big a name. It sounds more like a move van Baarle usually goes for. Narvaez could be a contender as well, if he has recovered from his crash.

Interesting that Küng (as far as I could see) didn't get a single mention in this thread, btw. Together with Asgreen, I see him as one of the very few riders potentially able to keep up with MvdP (or even van Aert, if back in shape).

I thought he could be a great outsider too, so I checked his past results in the Monuments. He has never finished a Monument in the top10, even when he was apparently in good shape. I don't think he has a problem with distance since he was a beast in Harrogate, so what's the problem here? Only his lack of sprint?

 

[Mayomaniac]

I thought he could be a great outsider too, so I checked his past results in the Monuments. He has never finished a Monument in the top10, even when he was apparently in good shape. I don't think he has a problem with distance since he was a beast in Harrogate, so what's the problem here? Only his lack of sprint?

Yeah, the lack of a sprint is his main problem. I think Roubaix should be better for him, but you never know. His teammate Madouas on the other hand is one of those guys who should try to anticipate the big names.
Sadly Bettiol is nowhere is pre-season form after having Covid, during Coppi e Bartali he usually finished inside the Froometto.
I feel that we shouldn't sleep on Turgis, he's in good shape and could be fighting for the win.

 

[Pantani_lives]

MvdP is the obvious favorite now, but everyone will be watching him, and he will be under big pressure.

Pogacar is strong enough to win, and he can handle the cobblestones. The biggest problem for him will be the fight for position just before the hills. Hopefully he doesn't crash.

Laporte and Benoot will be the leaders if Van Aert doesn't start. They would have a better chance as shadow leaders if he did start.

Ineos has a strong team. They haven't been winning yet, but Pidcock has found his shape back just in time. Van Baarle and Narvaez are interesting outsiders. However none of them has podiumed in a monument yet.

Asgreen won't have the team support of last year. Pedersen has disappointed in the preparation races.

Campenaerts and Küng are among the strongest rouleurs, but they need to finish solo, and it's unlikely for them to get away.

For Mohoric the descents are too short. Other outsiders are Bettiol, Politt, Stuyven and a bunch of others, but they're not in peak shape.

Conclusion: nobody will win.

 

[ice&fire]

MVdP is the wheel to follow. He should stop for a coffee to test if Cancellara's hypothesis holds on him as well.

 

[Lequack]

Pogacar and Trentin training

https://twitter.com/x/status/1509842171402539011

View: https://twitter.com/stefanorizzato/status/1509842171402539011?s=20&t=LQV7BloCdGPgPn-tyo558A

Meanwhile at Bora, they are rather inside

https://twitter.com/x/status/1509841587764928513

View: https://twitter.com/BORAhansgrohe/status/1509841587764928513?s=20&t=LQV7BloCdGPgPn-tyo558A

 

[search]

I thought he could be a great outsider too, so I checked his past results in the Monuments. He has never finished a Monument in the top10, even when he was apparently in good shape. I don't think he has a problem with distance since he was a beast in Harrogate, so what's the problem here? Only his lack of sprint?

yeah, well, last yeah he crashed, 2020 he fell sick just before the Ronde. The years before he wasn't as good as now, I'd say - but sure, no results are a bit of an issue indeed. No idea if factors like distance/stamina may have played a role as well there.

I just had the impression that he looked really, really good on the climbs recently.

 

[topcat]

MvdP is the obvious favorite now, but everyone will be watching him, and he will be under big pressure.

Pogacar is strong enough to win, and he can handle the cobblestones. The biggest problem for him will be the fight for position just before the hills. Hopefully he doesn't crash.

Laporte and Benoot will be the leaders if Van Aert doesn't start. They would have a better chance as shadow leaders if he did start.

Ineos has a strong team. They haven't been winning yet, but Pidcock has found his shape back just in time. Van Baarle and Narvaez are interesting outsiders. However none of them has podiumed in a monument yet.

Asgreen won't have the team support of last year. Pedersen has disappointed in the preparation races.

Campenaerts and Küng are among the strongest rouleurs, but they need to finish solo, and it's unlikely for them to get away.

For Mohoric the descents are too short. Other outsiders are Bettiol, Politt, Stuyven and a bunch of others, but they're not in peak shape.

Conclusion: nobody will win.

NvdP will win.

 

[Salvarani]

Pogacar and Trentin training

https://twitter.com/x/status/1509842171402539011

View: https://twitter.com/stefanorizzato/status/1509842171402539011?s=20&t=LQV7BloCdGPgPn-tyo558A

Nothing is impossible.

Just that he is in the race is something special.

 

[Lexman]

Dries Van Gestel (3rd in Gent-Wevelgem) DNS - sick

 

[Wvv]

Koppenberg:

Oude Kwaremont:

Paterberg:

Pogi:

 

[Netserk]

Performances perhaps not. But results are what they are. And staying on your bike is part of cycling too. An essential one.

That makes sense for a retrospective evaluation, not a prospective evaluation. The latter is the context of this conversation.

Was Froome a favourite to win the 2018 Giro? Not by past results in the race, but they were clearly not the best information to base your expectations on.

 

[tobydawq]

MvdP is the obvious favorite now, but everyone will be watching him, and he will be under big pressure.

Pogacar is strong enough to win, and he can handle the cobblestones. The biggest problem for him will be the fight for position just before the hills. Hopefully he doesn't crash.

Laporte and Benoot will be the leaders if Van Aert doesn't start. They would have a better chance as shadow leaders if he did start.

Ineos has a strong team. They haven't been winning yet, but Pidcock has found his shape back just in time. Van Baarle and Narvaez are interesting outsiders. However none of them has podiumed in a monument yet.

Asgreen won't have the team support of last year. Pedersen has disappointed in the preparation races.

Campenaerts and Küng are among the strongest rouleurs, but they need to finish solo, and it's unlikely for them to get away.

For Mohoric the descents are too short. Other outsiders are Bettiol, Politt, Stuyven and a bunch of others, but they're not in peak shape.

Conclusion: nobody will win.

Great conclusion

 

[Lequack]

 

[Big Doopie]

Crazy but methinks Pog will win.

to me he seemed by far the strongest on Wednesday.

and he won’t make the same mistake again.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Pogacar and Trentin training

https://twitter.com/x/status/1509842171402539011

View: https://twitter.com/stefanorizzato/status/1509842171402539011?s=20&t=LQV7BloCdGPgPn-tyo558A

The cold Monster fears no weather! Unfortunately for him it will be "hot" on sunday (circa 8 degrees and sun).

Crazy but methinks Pog will win.

to me he seemed by far the strongest on Wednesday.

and he won’t make the same mistake again.

I have similar sentiments, he has a good shot on Sunday.

 

[Axel Hangleck]

I'm more confident about Pog after Wednesday; he knows where he went wrong - and apart from that rode well. I still think there are questions about Pidcock, especially over this longer distance after his stomach issues, and has MvdP got enough kms in his legs for this.

 

[Red Rick]

The question for Pogacar isn't positioning or knowing the course for me. It's whether or not the course is hard enough for him to have any advantage over Van der Poel here anywhere and I don't really think so. He may get a more tactical win though.

 

[jaylew]

Crazy but methinks Pog will win.

to me he seemed by far the strongest on Wednesday.

and he won’t make the same mistake again.

Certainly possible but I reallly, really hope not. I don't really have anything against him but I'd rather not see one rider dominating just about everything and I get the feeling if he wins the race won't be as exciting.

 

[Netserk]

Pogi is strong like a tank, but he isn't explosive. I can well see him close several gaps.

 

[SafeBet]

The question for Pogacar isn't positioning or knowing the course for me. It's whether or not the course is hard enough for him to have any advantage over Van der Poel here anywhere and I don't really think so. He may get a more tactical win though.

Am I crazy to think that Pogacar could beat VdP in a sprint after making the race as hard as possible?

 

[Red Rick]

Am I crazy to think that Pogacar could beat VdP in a sprint after making the race as hard as possible?

At this rate Pogs sprint might be getting as overrated as Gilberts 2011 season. MOst particularly because it's based on a sprint he didn't even win and where the best sprinter he beat was Mauke Bollema.