109th Paris-Roubaix. The Hell of the North.

[leftover pie]

huzzah for paris-roubaix, really looking forward to sunday

 

[Roland Rat]

That sounds quite dumb and british-biased. Obviously Flecha should be the leader, while EBH and Geraint should have free roles.

Does it really? Forget nationality... which two of Thomas, Flecha and EBH have shown the best form recently? And of those two, who has been on the best form recently...? Who was the strongest in Dwars? Who was the strongest in RVV?

Biassed my tail.

 

[sublimit]

I think Wiggo will also get a free role, maybe go for a long solo or a 2 up TT with Fabian Cancellara.

 

[mr. tibbs]

I don't see Spartacus having another jour sans, and it's hard to imagine any of the tactical geniuses (who so often round out the podium of monuments without ever featuring on the top step) to risk sacrificing their chance at second place to organize a decent chase.

But!

Maybe after Flanders, the other favorites won't be so afraid of trying to win Roubaix outright. Cancellara cracked in Flanders, so he's beatable even if he goes into SpartaDrive 40km from the finish; Boonen didn't win the sprint in Flanders, so he's beatable even if the group is together 4km from the finish.

Nuyens's win may compel the others to actually race this one instead of just hiding in the shadow of whichever colossus doesn't attack.

Having said that:

Probable outcome = Cancellara by minutes, second place a well-rested Thor
Group of three or more = Boonen by a few bike lengths, second place a very tired Thor
Surprise solo win = G. Thomas, second place an exciting battle between angry colossi!

 

[Lanark]

Does it really? Forget nationality... which two of Thomas, Flecha and EBH have shown the best form recently? And of those two, who has been on the best form recently...? Who was the strongest in Dwars? Who was the strongest in RVV?

Biassed my tail.

Flecha has 3 podium spots in Roubaix, of course he should be the team leader. Thomas has shown fine potential, more than enough to give him a free role, but there is no reason to give him a place above Flecha in the pecking order.

 

[Andre.J]

This is Boonen's race to win or lose. He just missed out of Flanders. If it wasn't for Cancellara not wanting Tom to win and taking off early on the sprint, Boonen would have had it. His form is good enough to win. Victory for Boonen.

 

[roundabout]

I don't see Spartacus having another jour sans, and it's hard to imagine any of the tactical geniuses (who so often round out the podium of monuments without ever featuring on the top step) to risk sacrificing their chance at second place to organize a decent chase.

But!

Maybe after Flanders, the other favorites won't be so afraid of trying to win Roubaix outright. Cancellara cracked in Flanders, so he's beatable even if he goes into SpartaDrive 40km from the finish; Boonen didn't win the sprint in Flanders, so he's beatable even if the group is together 4km from the finish.

Nuyens's win may compel the others to actually race this one instead of just hiding in the shadow of whichever colossus doesn't attack.

Having said that:

Probable outcome = Cancellara by minutes, second place a well-rested Thor
Group of three or more = Boonen by a few bike lengths, second place a very tired Thor
Surprise solo win = G. Thomas, second place an exciting battle between angry colossi!

Nuyens hid in the shadows basically until the finishing straight in Flanders.

 

[Roland Rat]

Flecha has 3 podium spots in Roubaix, of course he should be the team leader. Thomas has shown fine potential, more than enough to give him a free role, but there is no reason to give him a place above Flecha in the pecking order.

What are you on about?

Geraint Thomas earns joint leadership for Paris-Roubaix

 

[Lanark]

What are you on about?

And then you read the actual article: ''Team Sky will field multiple leaders, including Brit Geraint Thomas, for Paris-Roubaix on Sunday. Thomas rode aggressively at the Tour of Flanders and left fans wondering: Should Juan Antonio Flecha support him, not the other way around?''

Obviously a ridiculous suggestion. A division of labour where Flecha is the team leader and Thomas has a free role is much more sensible.

 

[masking_agent]

Weather conditions and the new sections of pave after the forest make it close to impossible to predict any winner.

 

[Suedehead]

I don't see Spartacus having another jour sans, and it's hard to imagine any of the tactical geniuses (who so often round out the podium of monuments without ever featuring on the top step) to risk sacrificing their chance at second place to organize a decent chase.

A jour sans? Clearly strongest yet not brightest, with a hint of being a human (cramps) = a jour sans? I wish all my days are just as bad!

 

[mr. tibbs]

A jour sans? Clearly strongest yet not brightest, with a hint of being a human (cramps) = a jour sans? I wish all my days are just as bad!

Unfortunately, I think that's as close as he gets to one. As much as I like Cancellara, seeing him at top level all year kinda gets old. It's refreshing when he occasionally isn't flawless, and I tend to exaggerate those moments!

As for Nuyens: he was hiding a bit, true, but he was still able to win b/c the group rebounded and brought the race back together. (But maybe that wouldn't have been possible without the SpartaCramps.)

It's also worth noting that he (probably) wouldn't have won without Cancellara making that move in the final km, and I def applaud his decision to cover. Did he spend much time at the front of it, or was he sitting on? I was jumping up and down shouting for Chava at the time, so it's kind of a blur.

 

[Roland Rat]

And then you read the actual article: ''Team Sky will field multiple leaders, including Brit Geraint Thomas, for Paris-Roubaix on Sunday. Thomas rode aggressively at the Tour of Flanders and left fans wondering: Should Juan Antonio Flecha support him, not the other way around?''

Obviously a ridiculous suggestion. A division of labour where Flecha is the team leader and Thomas has a free role is much more sensible.

Oh, ok. That's just Cycling Weekly though. They don't know s**t and certainly don't speak for "the fans". The "fans" they're referring to are probably the office cleaner and the girl who delivers the sandwiches.

 

[roundabout]

Unfortunately, I think that's as close as he gets to one. As much as I like Cancellara, seeing him at top level all year kinda gets old. It's refreshing when he occasionally isn't flawless, and I tend to exaggerate those moments!

As for Nuyens: he was hiding a bit, true, but he was still able to win b/c the group rebounded and brought the race back together. (But maybe that wouldn't have been possible without the SpartaCramps.)

It's also worth noting that he (probably) wouldn't have won without Cancellara making that move in the final km, and I def applaud his decision to cover. Did he spend much time at the front of it, or was he sitting on? I was jumping up and down shouting for Chava at the time, so it's kind of a blur.

Nuyens did exactly 2 turns on the front in the final 3 man move.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

1. Spartacus
2. Flecha
3. Hushovd
4. Pozzato
5. Langeveld

 

[maltiv]

Does it really? Forget nationality... which two of Thomas, Flecha and EBH have shown the best form recently? And of those two, who has been on the best form recently...? Who was the strongest in Dwars? Who was the strongest in RVV?

Biassed my tail.

In RVV I think Geraint Thomas, EBH and Flecha were about as strong. Remember, even after being in the break for a long time, EBH was only about 5 meters away from getting into that lead group which Thomas was in. And if he had been there, well, it's not like he can't sprint.

EBH didn't ride Dwars. Flecha was at least as strong as Thomas but was marking the attacks from behind. Don't get me wrong, I'm a big fan of Geraint Thomas, but the hype on this forum lately is even exceeding Dim's hype of him a year ago (props to him for being partly right).

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

In RVV I think Geraint Thomas, EBH and Flecha were about as strong. Remember, even after being in the break for a long time, EBH was only about 5 meters away from getting into that lead group which Thomas was in. And if he had been there, well, it's not like he can't sprint.

EBH didn't ride Dwars. Flecha was at least as strong as Thomas but was marking the attacks from behind. Don't get me wrong, I'm a big fan of Geraint Thomas, but the hype on this forum lately is even exceeding Dim's hype of him a year ago (props to him for being partly right).

yeah I think thomas is making great progress, but suggesting he is a big chance at PR this year.... I can't see it. Top ten would be massive achievement and certainly more plausible.

Anyway I like how flecha has been looking on the flatter cobble sections. I rate him here a big chance if the canc. somehow doesn't win( I don't think miracles can strike twice)

 

[sublimit]

In RVV I think Geraint Thomas, EBH and Flecha were about as strong. Remember, even after being in the break for a long time, EBH was only about 5 meters away from getting into that lead group which Thomas was in. And if he had been there, well, it's not like he can't sprint.

EBH didn't ride Dwars. Flecha was at least as strong as Thomas but was marking the attacks from behind. Don't get me wrong, I'm a big fan of Geraint Thomas, but the hype on this forum lately is even exceeding Dim's hype of him a year ago (props to him for being partly right).

I think both were going well, Flecha slightly earlier and Thomas looked better in the closing 20 K. 2 in form riders so you cant ask for any more. Garmin have out of form riders and odd instructions and tactics. Out of the 2 teams Sky are looking OK for P-R.

 

[Captain_Cavman]

The only way Cancellara can be stopped is if there are teams up front with more than one guy and they work together when Cancellara goes. It didn't happen last year when he rode off and no-one followed.

I don't expect there to be seven BMC on the front this weekend but if there could be a few BMC, Sky and Quickstep riders up there, there's a chance Cancellara could be ridden down again.

A very small chance.

 

[Archibald]

Originally Posted by maltiv
In RVV I think Geraint Thomas, EBH and Flecha were about as strong. Remember, even after being in the break for a long time, EBH was only about 5 meters away from getting into that lead group which Thomas was in. And if he had been there, well, it's not like he can't sprint.

EBH didn't ride Dwars. Flecha was at least as strong as Thomas but was marking the attacks from behind. Don't get me wrong, I'm a big fan of Geraint Thomas, but the hype on this forum lately is even exceeding Dim's hype of him a year ago (props to him for being partly right).

yeah I think thomas is making great progress, but suggesting he is a big chance at PR this year.... I can't see it. Top ten would be massive achievement and certainly more plausible.

Anyway I like how flecha has been looking on the flatter cobble sections. I rate him here a big chance if the canc. somehow doesn't win( I don't think miracles can strike twice)

Flecha told G to slow up at RvV. If he hadn't then there's no telling just how much higher G would have finished. He was tearing it up.
Unfortunately, G will again be doing a job for Flecha and under orders so will not really be able to show his potential this year...

 

[El Pistolero]

Nuyens hid in the shadows basically until the finishing straight in Flanders.

You do know the amount of bad luck Nick Nuyens had to go through in the Ronde right?

Anyway, this looks like a rewind of the 2007 season. Cancellara doing a suicide attempt to win Flanders, but fails just before the Muur. You'd think he learned of that experience, but I guess not.

Let's see if Roubaix will be the same for Cancellara as in 2007. Small chance of it happening, but never say never.

I still think it's stupid Nick isn't doing Roubaix. Ok, it's not really his race, but he should be able to do well in a shadow role. Top 10 should be possible in his current form.

 

[canyonball]

You do know the amount of bad luck Nick Nuyens had to go through in the Ronde right?

I didn't get the chance to see the race. Could you enlighten me. I only read about the crash or getting stuck behind crashes, which could be bad luck just as much as bad positioning. Not to talk about the part where he closed the gap tp the favourites by either devolver or thomas.

Agree with captain_cavman. The willingness of other teams to work after last weekend might have risen also.

 

[mr. tibbs]

The only way Cancellara can be stopped is if there are teams up front with more than one guy and they work together when Cancellara goes. It didn't happen last year when he rode off and no-one followed.

I don't expect there to be seven BMC on the front this weekend but if there could be a few BMC, Sky and Quickstep riders up there, there's a chance Cancellara could be ridden down again.
A very small chance.

I can see these teams each sending their most promising domestiques in a move in order to force Leopard to do the work for the Boonen/Flecha/Hushovd/Pippo group. Which could be a disaster if Leopard's "work" involves Cancellara riding away from everyone, but I don't think that's going to happen this year.

A move of Thomas, Chava, Hincapie (or Ballan), and Haussler (or EBH) could go the distance though, even if Cancellara attacks and manages to bridge. It'd be even better for the other teams if a captain or two managed to hang on to Canc's wheel when he bridged. Without the hellingen, there's a real possibility of this happening--especially if the guy holding on is Boonen, who we can only assume will be stronger on Sunday than he was at Flanders.

Should the teams try this, or should they consolidate as much manpower as they can in the peloton to counter Canc's move when it happens?

If they opt for the consolidation option, I think there are enough teams with in-form captains and deep support that Cancellara won't be able to pull it off from 60, 40, or even 20 km.

These other teams are all very motivated, and Flanders tells me that there's more parity in fitness between the strongest and the weakest of the favorites this year than we've seen in a while. Last year's dynamic heavily favored Cancellara b/c he and Boonen were both so strong that no one was willing to work against one just to hand the win to the other. So once Canc got a gap, everyone but Boonen was racing for second place.

2011 has a lot more guys who could win this, and Flanders gave them all just enough of a taste that they'll be fighting mad on Sunday. PR could turn out much differently than we're all expecting...

I can't wait!

 

[Granville57]

I consider this to be good news:
Extra cobbles expected to shake up Paris-Roubaix

 

[Granville57]

As far as Spartacus is concerned:
I thought his most impressive show of strength at Flanders was that final kick he put in at the 4K mark. That was obviously going to be the winning move and yet only two riders were astute enough, and able, to latch on to him.

If he can do that, after suffering cramps on the steep cobbled climbs, I would have to think that he'll be plenty dangerous on the flat roads of P-R. And personally, I don't feel that he's worn out his welcome yet as far as domination goes.

Would it be boring to have him clean up on Spring Classics two years in a row?
Not the way he does it! His death-blow attacks are always exciting to watch! But I understand the frustration of predictability as well. But even if had won San Remo and Flanders so far this year, I look at it in terms of history and legacy. We'd be able to look back a few years from now and say, "I witnessed that!" So what if he crushed everyone for two, or even three years? It would be history in the making, and it could only possibly last so long.

BUT...
He didn't win San Remo or Flanders (to overstate the obvious).
Even if Fabian wins Roubaix this Sunday, I suspect most will look back on this achievement, a few years from now, with a romantic sense of cycling history. It wouldn't bother me one bit.

But I'm also with TFF. Seeing Big George pull off the win of his career would be a great, great cycling story and generate a media storm of congratulations. BMC used Flanders to prove that they have the team to support him, so let the countdown begin...

I love Paris-Roubaix!