114th Il Lombardia (1.UWT) // 15th of August 2020

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Wouldn´t be suprised if Remco attacks and for whatever reason no one decides to follow or chase him again. I thought that riders and teams had learned their lesson but the Tour of Poland showed that they still haven´t.
Prediciton: On the flat part prior to the Civiglio he attacks out of a reduced group of 15 riders. Leaders are watching each other. No one chases. He gets 20s and they never see him again.
When there are no more domestiques, or if those that are still there are cooked, then this could happen. Other favorites don't want to do all the work just so that someone else will take advantage of it. Then they need to work together, or drop each other.
 
Having quite often been the guy who was supposed to chase down attacks on my teams as an amateur racer, I can assure you, arguing and not chasing is more, not less of an indication that people are tired.
When he attacked most riders were preparing for the final kms. Some even back at their team cars. No one expected his attack. I am not arguing that he wasn´t the strongest. He clearly was. Even when the group split he continued to increase the gap to Fuglsang, Yates and Majka. I am just saying that all of them were caught sleeping by his initial attack. Flat road. Over 50kms to go.
For whatever reason they still underestimated him. Based on his strength he should be the marked rider (think peak Cancellara) but for whatever reason he isn´t. Once he has a lead there is no way to bring him back.
 
When he attacked most riders were preparing for the final kms. Some even back at their team cars. No one expected his attack. I am not arguing that he wasn´t the strongest. He clearly was. Even when the group split he continued to increase the gap to Fuglsang, Yates and Majka. I am just saying that all of them were caught sleeping by his initial attack. Flat road. Over 50kms to go.
For whatever reason they still underestimated him. Based on his strength he should be the marked rider (think peak Cancellara) but for whatever reason he isn´t. Once he has a lead there is no way to bring him back.
It's not as clear cut as that though. He attacked at the moment that a previous break had just been brought back, the road was going slightly uphill, everybody needed to catch his breath. Everybody but him. Then he attacks 51k from the finish, with a big climb coming up. He knew when to attack, because the others needed to pause a moment, and there was also a supply zone. This is what gave him the initial gap of 50 meters. The fact that it was still a long way to go, and the climb was coming up, makes the riders hesitate. Who wants to burn his matches? Not a lot of domestiques around, and the responsibility lies with the race leader, Carapaz, first and foremost, who still had a domestique (Dunbar). This hesitation gave him an extra 50 or so meters. But you should look at the race again, because before he starts to gradually widen the gap, there is actually fierce response, the first minute, at a moment he only has 10 seconds. Until they understand that they won't simply bridge without burning a few matches, and nobody is willing to do that, so they look at Carapaz and Dunbar. At that moment, the race was over.
 
Sormano is only at 180kms in. I don't expect it, no, but I didn't think Sosa would finish at 50 seconds last year, either.

As for Evenepoel, I could see him attacking later on in the race. I don't think he has to attack on the Sormano already in order to win. Civiglio is soon enough and hard enough.
Civiglio is too late for him, the likes of Fuglsang, Nibali, Woods can follow him there, I think he'll go earlier, maybe after Sormano descent, before Civiglio.
 
Oct 31, 2018
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I may sound strange, especially after Burgos and Poland, but I don't think Remco will win...
Agreed. He'll be closely marked and obviously even he can't have those Polish wonder legs every day.
Any love for Almeida winning because every favourite focusses on Remco? In Burgos he was almost just as good as Remco.
 
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Civiglio is too late for him, the likes of Fuglsang, Nibali, Woods can follow him there, I think he'll go earlier, maybe after Sormano descent, before Civiglio.
I think he can drop them all on Civiglio, going by San Sebastian. He's miles better now.

They'll be glued to his wheel on the flat, too, I would hope. Can't drop riders like Fuglsang there (who doesn't appear to be in his best shape ever, but still).

No move is entirely without risk, though.

Evenepoel needs to surprise people else they'll immediately be onto his attack.

The only correct place to attack is Madonna del Ghisallo
A freakishly early attack could work, but shouldn't be a huge shock either, given the gazillion km raids he's known for.

If Evenepoel can surprise the peloton I have to question their collective cycling "IQ"
 
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For whatever reason they still underestimated him. Based on his strength he should be the marked rider (think peak Cancellara) but for whatever reason he isn´t. Once he has a lead there is no way to bring him back.
Even being fully marked, Cancellara on some occasions managed to get away, sometimes he didn't.

But, I think there are indicators Evenepoel is even harder to follow than Cancellara, and Cancellara had a much better sprint. So he probably didn't always feel like he should burn all his matches (I prefer the German equivalent, "consume all his corns"). Evenepoel doesn't have another choice but to go all in solo.
 
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Agreed. He'll be closely marked and obviously even he can't have those Polish wonder legs every day.
Any love for Almeida winning because every favourite focusses on Remco? In Burgos he was almost just as good as Remco.
Bagioli is a better bet for DCQ than Almeida with his climbing and sprinting abilities.
 
Wouldn´t be suprised if Remco attacks and for whatever reason no one decides to follow or chase him again. I thought that riders and teams had learned their lesson but the Tour of Poland showed that they still haven´t.
Prediciton: On the flat part prior to the Civiglio he attacks out of a reduced group of 15 riders. Leaders are watching each other. No one chases. He gets 20s and they never see him again.
Could easily happen, its how Mollema won last year. He was clearly strong as he could sustain it to the finish but mano a mano against Roglic and Bernal etc he would have been slaughtered. Once you get a gap of over 10 seconds and nobody has teammates to pull the cooperation in the group gets very poor as they are all unwilling to tow rivals back to the front and this is exactly the kind of scenario Remco can profit from.
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
Agreed. He'll be closely marked and obviously even he can't have those Polish wonder legs every day.
Any love for Almeida winning because every favourite focusses on Remco? In Burgos he was almost just as good as Remco.
I had thought about it too but i fear the race wil prove to be too long for him. It would be his first classic as well.

Bagioli is a better bet for DCQ than Almeida with his climbing and sprinting abilities.
I can't see this happening at all.
 

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